Severe Weather Forecaster
(Continued post from the previous on "Will new cyclone develop in Arabian Sea"
Widespread convection is already happening in arabian sea having an extent from 5-15N and 60-70E
The 00z GFS,28th Sept 2010 is showing a LLC (low level cyclonic circulation) already persists at 850mb. This LLC is expected to strengthen more and organize into a low pressure in arabian sea given the 20kt+ widespread divergent area around the convection. Convergence at the lower levels will be building in the coming time and organize this widespread convection to atleast a Tropical Depression. I being very hopeful with this setup expect atleast a Tropical Depression will form but chance of Tropical cyclone seems to be low given the unorganized rainbands in early october.
The GFS 00z are indicating a fair low pressure and not significant as it was depicting during Major Cyclone Phet.