Widespread convection in Arabian Sea might turn to a Tropical Depression soon

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

(Continued post from the previous on "Will new cyclone develop in Arabian Sea"

Widespread convection is already happening in arabian sea having an extent from 5-15N and 60-70E

The Kalpana-1 Satellite imagery is showing intense cloud tops of -50C in 5-10N.

The 00z GFS,28th Sept 2010 is showing a LLC (low level cyclonic circulation) already persists at 850mb. This LLC is expected to strengthen more and organize into a low pressure in arabian sea given the 20kt+ widespread divergent area around the convection. Convergence at the lower levels will be building in the coming time and organize this widespread convection to atleast a Tropical Depression. I being very hopeful with this setup expect atleast a Tropical Depression will form but chance of Tropical cyclone seems to be low given the unorganized rainbands in early october.

The GFS 00z are indicating a fair low pressure and not significant as it was depicting during Major Cyclone Phet.