Thursday, September 2, 2010

Hurricane Earl weakens to Cat 3 due to eyewall replacement and cooler SST!

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Just a short while ago, I had posted that Atlantic's major hurricane Earl was undergoing an eye wall replacement or new eyewall formation process in which the wind fields increase and reduce intensity of hurricane. 
Earl's system is still undergoing a new eyewall formation and as of 2PM EDT,2nd Sept Earl is a CAT 3 hurricane-
Max sustained winds are 125mph with central pressure of 943mb...
I w'd not be surprised if earl' still looses its intensity in next 6hrs or so! 
After it will gain a stable eyewall, the intensity is likely to remain unchanged( not showing an increasing tendancy) since much cooler SST are present near Earl and the disturbing upper level shears!

Forward track
Right now, EARL IS MOVING 18MPH NORTH! Which means it will just pass few kilometers (eyewall will pass) from outer banks in North Carolina. But the outer bands or rainbands to the west of eye will affect the coasts. 
Landfall time remains nearly the same mentioned earlier. 

A good news in this activity can be that a pool of dry air currently situated over Eastern USA can move away in Earl's path in atlantic due to the westerlies and can dump significant dry air in Earl's system which can permanently halt its strengthening and which can prove to be good for residents at Nova Scotia where Earl will strike as a low cat hurricane by Saturday

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