Thursday, September 2, 2010

Hurricane Earl might have another Eyewall replacement and reduction in intensity!

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Seeing from the 15:15UT satellite imagery, a new eyewall is most likely forming just south of the present eyewall. For some strong hurricanes like Earl, eye wall replacement or change of the base eye of the system is a natural process and hurricanes weaken little since the wind field increases in size making it less symmetric!
Earl's position now is just away form the subtropical ridge which is to its south and earl is now being steered by the local winds or westerlies! Due to this, Earl will make a curved path just offshore few miles of outer banks of North Carolina on Friday early morning period

But, a slight west turn can steer it over outer banks of NC and cause tremendous damage

If the eyewall replacement is in process, earl's weakening is likely on track since its max. sustained winds have gone down to 140 m/hr from 145m/hr! 

Some more wind shears are also expected to build up in next 24hrs and Earl entering to a cooler ocean
SO, it looks it will make a threatening pass with a Max sustained winds nearing to 130-135mph well in Cat.4

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