Monday, September 13, 2010

Rainfall to begin again in Central India after a week of inactive period


Akshay Deoras,
Severe Weather Forecaster

Currently in a slow or weak phase, the SW Monsoon season is still active! After some heavy downpours in the last week, the newly arriving datas from GFS,NCEP and CDAS clearly depict that Monsoon will again activate in the heart of the Country i.e over Central India

The 12z,GFS are indicating the presence of a LLCC or Low level cyclonic circulation which is the forming stage of a low pressure offshore Andhra Pradesh.But the thai map doesn't indicate any low air pressure presence in the area mentioned above with the same time run.
Surprisingly, this time as seen from the 5 day GFS plot, the bay low is not expected to bring any rains but a surface low pressure area(Extending to low levels) will form just North East of Maharashtra. This one might form from the same mentioned bay low in the form of a pulse as I see a rapid weakening of the bay low after the surface low has been created

If GFS plots prove true then the remaining low will merge with the existing pre-dominant surface low by 15-16th Sept 2010 and then start pulling the moisture from Arabian Sea

If such happens, then some rains again will hit Central India and Eastern India.
This time, as per 12z, low will be placed at the end of this week much north of normal positions centring near to Tropic of Cancer.
With Negative MJO already at place, I w'd not be surprised to find rains back with the low

AS a result,
Rains will again impact (PERHAPS FOR THE LAST TIME) IN Central India and towards Delhi side since this low has a mean position relative to normal
Increase in rains in Central India from Wednesday,15th Sept 2010
Heavy rains possible towards weak end

Clearly seen from the Meteogram moisture plot,
Nagpur is again going to get rains !

5 day forecast for Nagpur
Tuesday- Partly Cloudy.
Slight chance of a spell of rain in afternoon (4%)
Slight chance of light showers at late night(10%)

Mostly Cloudy! Increase in rainfall chance than Tuesday at night period

Highly cloudy and possibly a partly rainy day.

Rains (intensity unknown)

Mostly cloudy with multiple rainfall chance

Above forecast for Nagpur depends on Low pressure intensity and placement!
Forecast is subjected to change!

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