ABOVE- THE FIRST IMAGE SHOWS THE THAI MAP OF 12Z SHOWING INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OF 996MB.
SECOND IMAGE IS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAP SHOWING THE CONCENTRIC CIRCLED BLUE AREA WHICH ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS IN NAGPUR
Severe Weather Forecaster
SHOCK! SHOCK! SHOCK!
An extensive low pressure area has formed by the union of two separate low pressures in Eastern India. The earlier Sea level pressure maps were showing the two systems had a pressure of 1002mb, but the thai map of 12UTC,4th Sept are confirming an area of 996mb has formed over NE Maharashtra. This low pressure with an embeded low level circulation or LLC, will again travel Westwards from its current location by crossing Central India.
Such situations of low pressures sweeping central India already have caused a lot of damage in many areas due to strong winds and rains. Those times, the air pressure was nearing to 998mb.
The 12z, GFS is indicating that this LLC will spend one more day at its position and then set off by Monday and naturally reach Central India at that time. If its intensity continues to remain the same, then VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS will hit in Central India and Nagpur also(covering all the parts of Vidarbha)
I see that this low pressure will maintain its strength till next 12hrs or so!
The entire forecast is dependent on this system's movements. On Saturday,very heavy rains struck Nagpur in afternoon period due to the far presence of this low and lot of convection organizing over Nagpur given the perfect low level convergence over Vidarbha
According to the expected track, FOR NAGPUR
Sunday- During the day, it will be mostly cloudy. An unexpected strong spell of rain again possible in late afternoon hours or anytime in afternoon! At night, light to moderate showers are expected.
The forecast is similar to all nearby areas
Monday- Mostly cloudy sky with A strong spell of rain especially thunderstorm possible in late afternoon hours. For Monday, the low pressure area is expected to shift slightly east
Monday night- Possible Heavy rains will hit in Nagpur
Tuesday- Expected to be a rainy day due to the low pressure. Severe rains likely to hit !
Thus, heavy rains likely to strike on Monday night- Tuesday late night period with possible flood like situation in Nagpur and all areas in 250km radius of the city