Wednesday, September 29, 2010

The low pressure offshore Karnataka in Arabian Sea looks like a sooner Tropical Depression

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

As had mentioned in the earlier posts, the widespread area of convection having cloud tops upto -70C and a newly developed low air pressure of 1008mb is looking good to be marked as a Tropical Depression as seen from the morning's satellite imagery. The recent Cloud Motion Vectors or CMV from this system are nearing to 30kt at upper level. The arriving datas from CIMSS is indicating a very good 20kt upper level divergence in the system and as encountering 28-30C SST.
However, This convection is not getting enough convergence necessary to give more geometric shape and creating a perfect textbook Tropical depression but the intensity remains good for calling as a Tropical Depression in coming hours given the decreasing deep layer shear tendency.

At present, there is no indication from IMD,JTWC about it but I still believe some notes on it will be put if this one is characterized as Tropical Depression
I don't expect a Tropical Cyclone from it

Attachment- The Enhanced Infrared image from IMD. Look the textbook size of the convection.

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