SW Monsoon 2010 Revival begins slow! it may miss the mid sept date

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The SW Monsoon 2010 revival has started but the intensity is very less. The season withdraws from Rajasthan but considering the previous rainrates recorded in early Sept. it looks that season is still active in North and West.

Since we are nearing to mid September, things should had changed by this period but I can say nothing significant happening

A new low pressure area is expected to form as per the GFS 12z. This one again looks to be dominant and seems to again SWEEP through Central India. But, I notice a slight southward shift of the Low's embedded Cyclonic circulation and is perhaps due to the southward shift of the local jet streams which happens both during the Monsoon withdrawal and winter approach

Once Winter onsets, jet streams will intensify as there is no significant collision between the arctic air and the tropical air mass.

The direction and location of the jet streams have very important role in the placements of low pressures esp. cyclonic circulations!

So, Orrissa and Maharashtra can remain safe from it and there might not be another Flooding potentials in Vidarbha with it.

If so happens,

Then another low over land will disrupt the withdrawal process. The low is expected to linger over land by 15-16 Sept and definitely will cause some rainfall again in Vidarbha

Nagpur weather forecast

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM IN NAGPUR MOSTLY TILL WEDNESDAY,15TH SEPT WHEN SOME LIGHT TO MDT RAINS WILL HAPPEN IN CONTINUATION FOR SOME DAYS (1-2) DUE TO LOW PRESSURE