Monday, September 6, 2010

The low pressure area weakens and backs little East today. Mark II alert in effect for some parts

Akshay Deoras,
Severe Weather Forecaster

As was expected and mentioned in the earlier post on METD WEATHER, The most anticipated low pressure of this season backed East of the previous position on Monday. This low pressure is a result of the union of two separate low pressures which had formed few days back and had a combined pressure of 996mb

Surprisingly, this slight change in its path will change the entire precipitation outlook this week which was previously issued. This low pressure now will spend another day i.e Tuesday at its current position gaining some strength from its current 1002mb status

If the 850mb plot of GFS 00z, or the embeded Low level circulation associated with this system goes true then the low will sweep through central India by Wednesday-Thursday

As a result of which some very heavy rains will happen possibly on Tuesday late part, Wednesday and some periods on Thursday

Detailed forecast for Areas
Tuesday- The Low pressure is likely to trigger Very heavy rains with a Severe Vortex system enough to intensify the rains with already strong westerlies prevalent
I issue a Mark 2 Alert or Basic preparedness alert for the areas South of Nagpur especially
Yavatmal,Chandrapur etc for Tuesday and wednesday

Wednesday- The low pressure will show some intensification and movements
In all, Very heavy rains possible from South-East Maharashtra to Central Maharashtra

Thursday- Rainfall intensity likely to remain less

Tuesday- Mostly cloudy skies and expected rainfall (slight) in afternoon hours
Light to Moderate rains will strike at late evening to night period

Wednesday- Similar weather as on Tuesday but slightly increase rainfall at afternoon and evening. Might be a rainy day on Wednesday and partially rains on Thursday

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