METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Igor has a very deep convection happening at its center as the major hurricane continues to surge at Cat4 mark in the Atlantic but noticed the shapeless eyewall in last few satellite images just after the eyewall replacement Igor had on Wednesday.
Clear from the Water vapor imagery of Igor of 17:45UT,16th Sept 2010.. convection at the center is not symmetric. Such cases sometimes happen when there is no sufficient convergence with the system or somethings like the horizontal wind shears disrupt the convergence from happening.
The attached Satellite imagery of 1745 clearly depicts that a region along West of Igor is not at all in a circular manner like Cat 4 hurricanes do as the Moderate westerly shear is likely pounding Igor. As a result of which Igor is not looking strong on satellite imagery and has weaker spiral bands
Igor is still a Cat.4 hurricane with 140mph max sustained winds and low central air pressure of 934mb.
As I mentioned in the last post of Igor, its forward speed has definitely reduced
to 7mph from 14-15mph as there is a blocking jet stream north of it. Due to this Igor will ling
er for some time and then as the jet moves away and the gap between the next jet arrives, Igor will rapidly strengthen(forward speed).Also Igor will (is now) moving North West wards towards the gap.
Right-
The 200mb 6hrs+12z,16/09/10
Igor is at intersection of -60W and 20N line where it is written 1236.
The blue extension north of Igor is 70-90kt jetstream flowing east. Due to its presence Igor has reduced forward speed
Forecast-
Igor will still maintain its intensity of Cat 4 till Saturday since shears will be low to moderate and not high
its track seem to be missing Bermuda but spiral bands will definitely hit Bermuda though eyewall stays away
More update as situation unfurls
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