Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Flood threat to Eastern Coast of USA due to Tropical Storm Nicole

300th Post for METD WEATHER BLOG

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Extremely heavy rains adding to flooding potentials are reserved for the Eastern coast due to Tropical Storm/Depression Nicole

National Hurricane Center has confirmed at 11AM EDT,29th Sept 2010 that Tropical Depression 16 has turned to Tropical storm Nicole as marked by the Saffir Simpson scale.
The Center of Nicole remains over Central Cuba at 11AM EDT. The forecast models of GFS are indicating that Nicole will hit the eastern states of USA namely Extreme SE Florida,Eastern NC,Virginia east,Maryland and Pennsylvania.
Nicole will not become very severe since the winds near USA will be very strong to unorganize it
As Nicole exits Cuba region, it will get trapped in the South-Easterly flow as nicole moves few miles SE of Florida. Nicole might turn back to a Tropical Depression in Atlantic and will quickly move towards the North Eastern States given the 50kt SE flow towards NW.
As a result of which, Very heavy rains 4"+ will hit Extreme North East South Carolina from Wednesday late night to Thursday late period.At the same time equivalent strong rains will continue in Eastern and Central North Carolina, Central Virginia on Thursday and less intensified rains in Maryland and DC area.

I haven't mentioned of Strong winds as from the recent model datas, I expect Nicole's strong winds to stay offshore North Eastern States. Moderate winds and heavy rains is the matter of concern.

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