Slight Risk in Mid atlantic states in USA !

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

3 TORNADOES ALREADY REPORTED IN NORTH CAROLINA. REPORTS YET TO BE CONFIRMED. MANY MORE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

A classic upper level trough ejecting over the Eastern states of USA having maximum jets of 80kt will bring down some severe weather along with the classic 50kt low level jets centered over Central-Eastern Virginia, North Carolina,Maryland,PA,NYC

Maximum CAPE of 2000J/Kg will build over East coast of North Carolina,Virginia coupled with 200 m2 s2 Helicity at 0-1km level

Severe weather will pop up in Mid atlantic states in the warm moist sector having Surface dewpoints of 70F.

Discrete supercells will form and all of the will be HP since the precipitable water is 2.0"+ in most of the areas. The tri front point will center over North Eastern North Carolina which I guess has the maximum tornado threat

Tornado watches already in effect in many areas. The main risk lies in Eastern North Carolina,Eastern Virginia, Maryland,Washington area

Strong RIP currents and winds will strike coastal areas. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS POST, HEAVY RAINS 2-6" AND FLOODING POTENTIALS WILL HAPPEN IN

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT

/MOREHEAD CITY NC

707 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT

 HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...   NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH

 CAROLINA.EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY IN EASTERN 

NORTH CAROLINA.  * UNTIL 730 AM EDT  * AT 702 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER

 RADAR INDICATED A   TORNADO OVER PLYMOUTH...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH. 

Tropical Storm Nicole dies! FLOOD ALERT STILL CONTINUES

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As was expected, Tropical storm Nicole has dissipated at 5PM Sept 29 just few

miles SE of Florida.

BUT the flood threat for the eastern coast still continues as the low pressure wi

ll move towards Eastern States on Thursday and having air pressure nearing to 1000mb!

On thursday very heavy rains will continue to strike with

flooding potentials mainly in Extreme North-East South Carolina,Eastern and Central North Carolina,Central Virginia on Thursday and also in Maryland,DC,New york from late Wednesday night to Friday mid period

The NWS has already issued a Flash flood alert

Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 9:05 PM EDT on September 29, 2010 ... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday evening... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * portions of Maryland... the District of Columbia... Virginia and northeast West Virginia... including the following areas... in Maryland... Anne Arundel... Calvert... Carroll... Charles... Frederick MD... Harford... Howard... Montgomery... northern Baltimore... Prince Georges... southern Baltimore... St. Marys and Washington. The District of Columbia. In Virginia... Albemarle... Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria... Augusta... Clarke... Culpeper... Fairfax... Frederick VA... Greene... King George... Loudoun... Madison... Nelson... northern Fauquier... Orange... Page... Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park... Rappahannock... Rockingham... Shenandoah... southern Fauquier... Spotsylvania... Stafford and Warren. In northeast West Virginia... Berkeley... Jefferson and Morgan. * From midnight EDT tonight through Thursday evening * light rain overspreading the area from the south this evening will increase in intensity tonight... becoming heavy at times late tonight and Thursday as low pressure tracks up the East Coast. Rainfall totals of two to four inches are expected... with localized amounts up to six inches possible. Also,, STRONG WINDS AT SURFACE LEVEL WILL TROUBLE THE EASTERN COASTS OF VIRGINIA,NEW YORK,PHILADELPHIA AND COASTAL AREAS WITH STRONG SURFS A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS FROM EASTERN NC TO MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE LESS 2000J/KG CAPE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NC THERE IS A STRONG ARGUMENT IN GFS AND NAM MODELS. THESE AREAS WILL WITNESS PRETTY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAINS AND 1-2 TORNADO OR EVEN 0 DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS METD WEATHER CONTINUES ALL THE WEATHER ALERTS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED EVEN AFTER THE DEATH OF NICOLE. THIS WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE IS THE ORIGINAL CAUSE OF PROBLEM AND NOT"TROPICAL STORM NICOLE"

Flood threat to Eastern Coast of USA due to Tropical Storm Nicole

300th Post for METD WEATHER BLOG

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Extremely heavy rains adding to flooding potentials are reserved for the Eastern coast due to Tropical Storm/Depression Nicole

National Hurricane Center has confirmed at 11AM EDT,29th Sept 2010 that Tropical Depression 16 has turned to Tropical storm Nicole as marked by the Saffir Simpson scale.

The Center of Nicole remains over Central Cuba at 11AM EDT. The forecast models of GFS are indicating that Nicole will hit the eastern states of USA namely Extreme SE Florida,Eastern NC,Virginia east,Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Nicole will not become very severe since the winds near USA will be very strong to unorganize it

As Nicole exits Cuba region, it will get trapped in the South-Easterly flow as nicole moves few miles SE of Florida. Nicole might turn back to a Tropical Depression in Atlantic and will quickly move towards the North Eastern States given the 50kt SE flow towards NW.

As a result of which, Very heavy rains 4"+ will hit Extreme North East South Carolina from Wednesday late night to Thursday late period.At the same time equivalent strong rains will continue in Eastern and Central North Carolina, Central Virginia on Thursday and less intensified rains in Maryland and DC area.

I haven't mentioned of Strong winds as from the recent model datas, I expect Nicole's strong winds to stay offshore North Eastern States. Moderate winds and heavy rains is the matter of concern.

The low pressure offshore Karnataka in Arabian Sea looks like a sooner Tropical Depression

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As had mentioned in the earlier posts, the widespread area of convection having cloud tops upto -70C and a newly developed low air pressure of 1008mb is looking good to be marked as a Tropical Depression as seen from the morning's satellite imagery. The recent Cloud Motion Vectors or CMV from this system are nearing to 30kt at upper level. The arriving datas from CIMSS is indicating a very good 20kt upper level divergence in the system and as encountering 28-30C SST.

However, This convection is not getting enough convergence necessary to give more geometric shape and creating a perfect textbook Tropical depression but the intensity remains good for calling as a Tropical Depression in coming hours given the decreasing deep layer shear tendency.

At present, there is no indication from IMD,JTWC about it but I still believe some notes on it will be put if this one is characterized as Tropical Depression

I don't expect a Tropical Cyclone from it

Attachment- The Enhanced Infrared image from IMD. Look the textbook size of the convection.

SW Monsoon 2010 Retreating over Nagpur today.

The 2010 SW Monsoon after a half  month delay is finally retreating! The 850mb winds which are generally referred as Monsoon winds are backing up due to the presence of anticyclone over Central India

The monsoon winds and monsoon moisture over Central India will now decrease in the coming days. AS a result of it, the RH(relative humidity over Nagpur) which currently is above 60% which is defined as Moist air will decrease to 30% which means dry air.

AS a result of this afternoon time in Nagpur will be very uncomfortable as dry air holds up. Winter 2010 in Nagpur has already initiated IN VERY VERY SMALL SCALE. The full swing winters will initiate by 20th Oct 2010 or late after the monsoon retreats completely over Central India. 

This years winter are expected to be cooler than normal(in slight scale) given the La Nina in active phase. 

2010 Monsoon statistics in Nagpur( AS RECORDED FROM METD WEATHER HQ)

Month        Total rains(mm)     Normal rains(mm)          % normal 

June 2010-     NA                         172                             NA

July 2010-      279                       351.5                            79.49

  

August    -     573                        278                            106.12 (100+106.12=206.12)

Sept      -       287                       180.5                           159%

(TOTAL 2010 RAINS CAN'T BE DETERMINED SINCE JUNE 2010 DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE)

No. of days of rain in Nagpur( AS RECORDED BY METD WEATHER)

June - NA

July - 14

August-19

Sept- 8

There had been 6-8 Low pressures in Bay of Bengal this year. 

Considering all, this year's season is MORE than normal rainfall season

ATTACHMENT- The 850mb map of India

Widespread convection in Arabian Sea might turn to a Tropical Depression soon

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

(Continued post from the previous on "Will new cyclone develop in Arabian Sea"

Widespread convection is already happening in arabian sea having an extent from 5-15N and 60-70E

The Kalpana-1 Satellite imagery is showing intense cloud tops of -50C in 5-10N.

The 00z GFS,28th Sept 2010 is showing a LLC (low level cyclonic circulation) already persists at 850mb. This LLC is expected to strengthen more and organize into a low pressure in arabian sea given the 20kt+ widespread divergent area around the convection. Convergence at the lower levels will be building in the coming time and organize this widespread convection to atleast a Tropical Depression. I being very hopeful with this setup expect atleast a Tropical Depression will form but chance of Tropical cyclone seems to be low given the unorganized rainbands in early october.

The GFS 00z are indicating a fair low pressure and not significant as it was depicting during Major Cyclone Phet.

Will a new cyclone develop in Arabian sea in early Oct 2010

ABOVE- FIRST IMAGE IS OF THE 144HR PRECIPITATION SHOWING WEAK RAINBANDS

SECOND IMAGE IS SHOWING 1004MB SLP

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A weakly organised convection area is likely moving Westwards at the Southern side of India. Cloud top temperatures of -40C have been reported in this area extending 10-15N,65-70E as on 0200UTC,27th Sept 2010.

GFS model runs of 12z,26th Sept 2010 are indicating that this featured unorganized convection will organize around 30th Sept-1st Oct.

Cyclogenesis will take place by early october as I find a LLC( Low level cyclonic circulation) developing with a low surface pressure building creating organization of the system around the low pressure. The 144hr GFS showing the air pressure at Sea level to be 1004mb and having a tendency to organize more.

However the 12z and 18z weather models are not very impressive from the point of view of formation of a Tropical Depression and then a Tropical cyclone. The 700mb V.vorticity and surface precipitation is showing an unorganized structure having a wedge West-east extent.

On this basis, I think that Tropical depression might develop from this low pressure (if the new runs show this low pressure's movement towards the North-West which is the usual Cyclone movement in arabian sea as it heads towards Oman sometimes like Very severe cyclone Phet

Stay tuned for updates as the new weather model runs will be exciting!

SW Monsoon 2010 retreating in near full swing

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Confirmations have now started coming after near a week of nil rains in Central India and some time in Rajasthan which is the first place where monsoon retreats

The season had started retreating well by 15th Sept 2010 as I had expected but a low

pressure formation over eastern states and its dominance for more than a week pulled back the retrival

Currently no low pressure is expected to form in bay near India and Central parts with western and eastern maharashtra will remain hot and dry as the monsoon flow retreats

According to IMD, the 2010 season is already 4% more than normal i.e 2010 rainfall till mid september is 104%.

The basic thing for this absence of low pressures is definitely the withdrawal period and the weakening MJO which was -1.5 in mid september. MJO is now turning to positive phase which means that potentials for cyclones and severe low pressures will increase given the perfect November for near active Cyclone season in India.

From 24th Sept data updated models of MJO, in the long 70-90E which is standard area of ocean (bay and arabian sea) whose activity affects inland's weather HAS TURNED TO 0- (-0.5) RANGE.The lowest of this years MJO was -2.0 which was definitely sufficient to trigger rains in Sept also.

The daily Indian Summer Monsoon circulation index from CPC is showing the graph of active monsoon is going down after a final phase in mid september.

I expect the process of withdrawal to be completed by near mid October and winters will likely kick off in North and Central areas by last week of October. However, a delay can be caused and it depends on the intensity of the withdrawal. A positive aspect is the southwards shifting of the local jet streams which is a sign of approaching cool period. 20-30kt jets at 200mb are already digging in upto Rajasthan

Given the La Nina conditions this year, I expect slight cooler than normal in North regions esp NW India.

SEVERE SOLARWX

For latest see- www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

Earth is still in the path of the high speed coronal stream which is causing high electron flux fluctuations and KP nearing to 3.

NOAA has estimated a Kp 4 soon since now the disturbance is increasing

High latitude areas must watch Auroras connected to the event!!

Hurricane Igor passing West of Bermuda!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Igor is just passing West o Bermuda. Hurricane forced winds already have been reported gusting to 115km/hr+ and air pressure of 965mb. Light blowing rains already happening with storm surges.

Hurricane Igor closes Bermuda. Landfall tonight

(THE TINY RED DOT ABOVE IGOR IS BERMUDA) IGOR MIGHT PASS JUST FEW MILES AWAY FROM MAINLAND IF THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BLEND NORTH)

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Atlantic's Major hurricane Igor is nearing Bermuda for a landfall ! Igor which currently is defined by NHC as Cat.1 with max sustained winds of 85mph and air pressure 949mb is expected to hit bermuda coast Sunday evening to night hours

Hurricane warnings are already in effect for Bermuda as Igor might turn to a Cat 2 from Cat 1 as per Bermuda Weather org. I also expect Igor to strengthen!

Igor still remains a large hurricane and enough to trigger severe winds,heavy rains, and storm surges. 39mph+ winds will blow. hurricane forced winds will arrive by 9-10 PM local time as Igor makes a landfall in few hours after that. Heavy rains and winds will continue near to 10hrs as Igor then passes away

Its a direct hit and nightime situation so people must watch out~!

Alerts for Saturday upgraded in Maharashtra and Madhya-Pradesh

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

100mb low pressure surging west from its current location as on 12z over Chhattisgarh will bring very heavy rains on Saturday and sometime on Sunday in North Eastern Maharashtra,North-Central Maharashtra and South Central Madhya Pradesh. The GFS 12z precipitation plot indicating that the embedded LLC or Low level cyclonic circulation associated with the low pressure will sweep across 20N latitude line on Saturday and pumping rich moistured air mass over North eastern,north central Maharashtra and South Central Madhya Pradesh

The intensity of the low pressure still remains a matter of question as the GFS surface map is not depicting this low to fall below 1000mb but given the textbook 850mb LLC convergence, I w'd expect this low to fall to 998mb on Saturday

Rains-

Low eventually will bring very heavy rains on Saturday in Nagpur,Wardha,Bhandara,Gondia,Chandrapur,Gadchiroli,Yavatmal,Amravati,Akola and other nearby districts.

In Madhya pradesh- South-Central Madhya pradesh like Betul,Chhindwada,Pachmarhi,Itarsi etc. briefly and other areas lying in the 500km from Maharashtra-MP border.

IN ACCORDANCE TO POSSIBLE FLOOD LIKE POTENTIALS IN AREAS OF MP AND SOME PARTS OF MAHARASHTRA, METD WEATHER ALREADY ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER ALERT ON MARK 3

MARK 3 ALERT CONTINUES TILL 1500HRS,SUNDAY

NAGPUR WEATHER FORECAST

18/09- RAINS. RAINS WILL BEGIN AROUND LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTENSITY WILL BE FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY AND AT TIMES LIGHT.

IN AFTERNOON, I EXPECT HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING TILL EVENING AND CAUSING WATER LOGGING. SO STAY ALERT

19/09-PARTLY RAINY DAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THERE ALMOST THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PERIODS OF NO RAINS TO MODERATE RAINS

20/09- PARTLY CLOUDY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOL

20/09- PARTLY SUNNY

New Alerts for Maharashtra and nearby areas. Heavy rains very likely on Sat

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Wide area of Convection happening over the Eastern States is most likely to organize on Friday and more on Saturday as a low level cyclonic circulation develops with a mid level vortex system adding all to a low pressure area. The strength of the low might not be that severe as we were expected but could definitely throw life out of gear in central India esp Eastern and Central Maharashtra

The 00z models are very clear in suggesting the track of the low across the Central India portion eventually pulling ample moisture from Arabian Sea and pumping it over land. Given the decrease in the pressure associated with low movement and increase in the moisture amount,

VERY HEAVY RAINS will strike initially Most of Chattisgarh areas like Raipur,Durg,Bhilai,Bilaspur,South-west Orrissa,Souther Chattisgarh and SE Maharashtra.

METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK 3 ALERT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS (WRITTEN IN RED) . ALERT BEGINS 1200HRS,17TH SEPT 2010

EXPIRES 1300HRS,19TH SEPT 2010 (ALERT CONTINUES FOR SW ORRISSA AND SOUTHERN CHATTISGARH,SE MAHARASHTRA ON SUN. FOR REST AREAS ALERT EXPIRES ON 1300HRS,18TH SEPT 2010)

As the low moves more west, heavy rains will pound

VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL STRIKE ON SATURDAY AT WIDE AREA

SE OF MAHARASHTRA,NAGPUR,WARDHA,AMRAVATI,AKOLA,JALGAON,

MAHARASHTRA-MP BORDER,SOUTH CENTRAL MP AND LAST AT BHOPAL.

THE MAIN THREAT SEEMS TO BE NEAR MAHARASHTRA-MP BORDER AREAS AND FEW 100KM IN MADHYA PRADESH FROM MAHARASHTRA

METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK 3 ALERT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ALERT BEGINS 2300HRS,17TH SEPT 2010

EXPIRES 1700HRS,19TH SEPT 2010 (SINCE SOME MORE RAINS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN THE REGION)

MARK 3 ALERT MEANS- Mark 3 is a scale which means Moderate THREAT with IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED. Mark 3 alert means THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT from the Weather. THREAT LEVEL MODERATE

Nagpur Weather Forecast-

17/09- PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. 8% CHANCE OF RAINS (ON SCALE OF 30% MAX) IN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALSO. IN ALL LESS CHANCE OF RAINS

18/09- MARK 3 ALERT IN EFFECT

VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY FROM MORNING,POSSIBLE WATER LOGGING PROBLEMS.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS 30% ON 30% MAXIMUM VALUE

19/09- MARK 2 ALERT STARTS FROM SUNDAY EARLY MORNING

RAINS ON SUNDAY ALSO CONTINUING FROM SATURDAY, LESS CHANCE OF WATER LOGGING BUT THREAT PERSISTS, COOL DAY.

20/09- PARTLY RAINY DAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COOL DAY.

I w'd not be surprised to find flood like situations in the areas mentioned above in RED color

Hurricane Igor's eyewall no longer symmetrical

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Igor has a very deep convection happening at its center as the major hurricane continues to surge at Cat4 mark in the Atlantic but noticed the shapeless eyewall in last few satellite images just after the eyewall replacement Igor had on Wednesday.

Clear from the Water vapor imagery of Igor of 17:45UT,16th Sept 2010.. convection at the center is not symmetric. Such cases sometimes happen when there is no sufficient convergence with the system or somethings like the horizontal wind shears disrupt the convergence from happening.

The attached Satellite imagery of 1745 clearly depicts that a region along West of Igor is not at all in a circular manner like Cat 4 hurricanes do as the Moderate westerly shear is likely pounding Igor. As a result of which Igor is not looking strong on satellite imagery and has weaker spiral bands

Igor is still a Cat.4 hurricane with 140mph max sustained winds and low central air pressure of 934mb.

As I mentioned in the last post of Igor, its forward speed has definitely reduced

to 7mph from 14-15mph as there is a blocking jet stream north of it. Due to this Igor will ling

er for some time and then as the jet moves away and the gap between the next jet arrives, Igor will rapidly strengthen(forward speed).Also Igor will (is now) moving North West wards towards the gap.

Right-

The 200mb 6hrs+12z,16/09/10

Igor is at intersection of -60W and 20N line where it is written 1236.

The blue extension north of Igor is 70-90kt jetstream flowing east. Due to its presence Igor has reduced forward speed

Forecast-

Igor will still maintain its intensity of Cat 4 till Saturday since shears will be low to moderate and not high

its track seem to be missing Bermuda but spiral bands will definitely hit Bermuda though eyewall stays away

More update as situation unfurls

The expected low pressure most likely to change the path in Central India

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The 00z, model forecasts are suggesting intensification of the current existing low pressure having Central air pressure near to 1002mb over Eastern Coast of India. Models suggesting the movement of this forecasted low across CENTRAL INDIA with peak low air pressure nearing to 996mb and around on 18th Sept that is Saturday

Given the excellent conditions for this one such as lower convergence and upper divergence which are forecasted to remain over Central India, I w'd not be surprised to find this one nearing to the forecasted air pressure (If something unusual doesn't happen)

Considering according to the forecast

This low pressure NOW WILL BRING SOME SOLID RAINS THIS WEEKEND IN CENTRAL INDIA. IF THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AGAIN THEN IT WILL DEFINITELY CREATE FLOODING POTENTIALS IN MANY AREAS SINCE EVERY LOW PRESSURE SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAHARASHTRA HAS DONE VERY BAD THINGS

Forecast-

Friday- VERY HEAVY RAINS IN WEST- CENTRAL CHATTISGARH

ESPECIALLY BHILAI,RAIPUR,RAJNANDGAON AND NEARBY AREAS

(RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY TO MODERATE ON THURSDAY,16TH SEPT 2010)

I ISSUE A MARK 3 ALERT ON METD WEATHER'S SEVERE WEATHER RISK SCALE

ALERT EXPIRES- 1500HRS IST SATURDAY,18TH SEPT 2010

(((MARK 3. Mark 3 is a scale which means Moderate THREAT with IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED. Mark 3 alert means THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT from the Weather. THREAT LEVEL MODERATE))))

On Saturday, The low is expected to move THROUGH NAGPUR

So, Very heavy rains are likely on Saturday.

I ISSUE A MARK 3 ALERT FOR NAGPUR,WARDHA,AMRAVATI,AKOLA,BHANDARA, KATOL, AND OTHER AREAS WITHIN 450KM OF RADIUS FROM NAGPUR

Nagpur Weather Forecast-

Thu- Thunderstorm at late night with some rains

Fri- Mostly Cloudy and some rains expected at afternoon side( Check www.facebook.com/metdweather) for exact details

Sat- Heavy rains and cool day.MARK 3 ALERT IN EFFECT TILL 1400HRS SUNDAY,19TH SEPT 2010

** IF THE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS THE FORECASTED PATH THEN VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL CREATE WATER LOGGING IN CITY, FLOODING POTENTIALS IN THE MENTIONED AREAS AND THEIR VICINITY

STAY SAFE

Two Cat.4 Hurricanes churning in Atlantic Ocean

Above- Hurricane Igor the left one and Hurricane Julia to the right of Igor.

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As on 15th Sept 2010, Two massive Hurricanes- Hurricane Igor and Hurricane Julia both surging with winds of 145mph and 135 mph at max sustained respectively.

Igor now has a new eyewall and LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MORE GIVEN THE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS

Stay tuned for details as Igor braces near Bermuda which Julia misses it!

Hurricane Igor undergoing Eyewall replacement! Weakens slightly

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Latest!!!

As was mentioned by me in earlier post, Hurricane Igor could miss the golden opportunity of reaching Cat 5 mark as I expected an eyewall replacement happening in it

Confirmed from the Infrared and water vapour satellite imagery of IGOR on 08:45UTC,

the existing eyewall got eroded from SW quadrant of the eyewall and newly developing eyewall from SE side is now replacing the previous eyewall. We will be able to see the new eyewall in next round of satellite imagery

IGOR is now a Cat 4 Hurricane in Atlantic having a central air pressure of 935mph and winds max sustained of 145mph which earlier was 155mph in early morning.

Igor is moving WNW at 10mph and at location of 19.5N,54.5W

NHC in their recent forecast discussion # 29 wrote that Igor's forward speed will increase as soon as it crosses the subtropical ridge. The Jet streams of which I wrote in the last post will decrease the forward speed till Igor crosses the ride. Then it will move with increased speed towards the gap

Also NHC mentioned East wards shift on days 4,5 than mentioned. This seems to be a little matter of confusion for me as I believe Igor will bend slightly west and not east

I believe Igor will miss Bermuda but outer spiral bands will definitely pound Bermuda!

Hurricane Igor churning in the Atlantic!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster.

Massive Atlantic Hurricane Igor is churning with an intense low central air pressure of 925 mb and Max sustained 155mph winds to the south-west of the Atlantic Subtropical Ride or Bermuda High.

Igor is now a Cat.4 Hurricane and having solid Cloud top temperature!

Already in an environment of low vertical shears and over warm waters and in transition to warmer water in next 12-18hrs, Igor is likely going to strengthen to a Cat.5 Hurricane since the conditions remain very favorable for intensification. Exception to this can be the

recent in process Eye Wall replacement as seen from the Microwave and Water vapour satellite imagery.

Eyewall replacement actually decreases the intensity of the Major hurricane like Igor as there is a change in the symmetry i.e Hurricanes become more asymmetric.

But, Igor do have a golden chance of becoming the first Cat 5 Hurricane of the season in Atlantic.

Forecast-

The dominant Bermuda high will maintain the intensity over next few days as Igor churns in the atlantic. Since a north West move of IGOR must begin soon, Forecasts will concentrate on Bermuda. Igor is following a track away from the eastern Coast of USA and has more threat for Bermuda

But, I don't find Igor dominating Bermuda since a lot of weakening will happen as it encounters cooler SST and dry air on its way. Also, in the upper level forecast till Friday, a blocking jet stream of 70-90kt winds over 40N and 60W i.e SE of Bermuda might have a change

in Igors Northwards Movement. I expect Igor to speed down for some time however I may be wrong since I have seen such a situation for the first time.

See here what I am speaking of

Right-

The 200mb NCEP forecast in the atlantic ocean

At intersection of -60 on y axis and 20 on x axis, where in blue color its written 50 is the position where IGOR will be in 42nd hour from now i.e by 18z UTC on Thursday. North of it there is an extending jetstream having a flow towards East.

This situation can likely reduce IGOR's speed or shift Igor towards slight west in the gap of two branch of jets

More details as the situation unfurls.

Akshay's Gyaan sets up "SEVERE SOLARWX" section on the blog for Space Weather!

Finally, an official confirmation of establishing a well defined Space Weather Forecasting agency.

I already had made more than a dozen of Space Weather Forecasts since August 2010.

But there was no specific name given to the organization as we have the Global Earth Weather forecasting agency-METD WEATHER.

METD WEATHER was established on June 1,2009. Its parent blog is Akshay's Gyaan

On the same basis, we have setup a section on blog (though not a different blog as managing 3 blogs will become difficult). The name of the Akshay's Gyaan Space Weather Forecasting agency is -

"SEVERE SOLARWX" WX means weather in meteorological aspects. Severe Solar WX means Severe Solar Weather.

All the posts relating to space weather will be done on Akshay's Gyaan Blog

The Severe Solar Weather forecaster will be Akshay Deoras

Rainfall to begin again in Central India after a week of inactive period

ABOVE- THE SUMMER MONSOON INDEX SHOWING AN ENHANCED ACTIVITY OF MONSOON IN THIS WEEK

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

Currently in a slow or weak phase, the SW Monsoon season is still active! After some heavy downpours in the last week, the newly arriving datas from GFS,NCEP and CDAS clearly depict that Monsoon will again activate in the heart of the Country i.e over Central India

The 12z,GFS are indicating the presence of a LLCC or Low level cyclonic circulation which is the forming stage of a low pressure offshore Andhra Pradesh.But the thai map doesn't indicate any low air pressure presence in the area mentioned above with the same time run.

Surprisingly, this time as seen from the 5 day GFS plot, the bay low is not expected to bring any rains but a surface low pressure area(Extending to low levels) will form just North East of Maharashtra. This one might form from the same mentioned bay low in the form of a pulse as I see a rapid weakening of the bay low after the surface low has been created

If GFS plots prove true then the remaining low will merge with the existing pre-dominant surface low by 15-16th Sept 2010 and then start pulling the moisture from Arabian Sea

If such happens, then some rains again will hit Central India and Eastern India.

This time, as per 12z, low will be placed at the end of this week much north of normal positions centring near to Tropic of Cancer.

With Negative MJO already at place, I w'd not be surprised to find rains back with the low

AS a result,

Rains will again impact (PERHAPS FOR THE LAST TIME) IN Central India and towards Delhi side since this low has a mean position relative to normal

Increase in rains in Central India from Wednesday,15th Sept 2010

Heavy rains possible towards weak end

Nagpur-

Clearly seen from the Meteogram moisture plot,

Nagpur is again going to get rains !

5 day forecast for Nagpur

Tuesday- Partly Cloudy.

Slight chance of a spell of rain in afternoon (4%)

Slight chance of light showers at late night(10%)

Wednesday,

Mostly Cloudy! Increase in rainfall chance than Tuesday at night period

Thursday

Highly cloudy and possibly a partly rainy day.

Friday-

Rains (intensity unknown)

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with multiple rainfall chance

Above forecast for Nagpur depends on Low pressure intensity and placement!

Forecast is subjected to change!

Yamuna River still flowing above danger mark! Delhi misses the Low pressure strike

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

Delhi saved from near Massive destruction!

Conditions on Saturday were all favorable to wash away delhi due to heavy rains coupled with the rising water of Yamuna River. As seen from the afternoon satellite imagery, Massive convective clouds had formed in association with the 998mb air pressure(LOW) just South of Delhi having top temperature -20C. The upper level (300mb winds) which are the steering winds in the cases of such low showed a SouthWest to North East movement which was away from Delhi but was considerably near to cause Thunderstorm and rains during early morning and afternoon.

The clouds then turned towards Haryana and were feared to cause heavy downpours. Fortunately maximum of 30mm rainfall was recorded in Chandigarh which is expected to be the highest in the region. Now, the low pressure has turned towards Pakistan and the clouds have become weak(Weak Convection system) and turned far away from Haryana and Delhi

So, I don't expect any more heavy rains in Delhi and Haryana in next 48hrs

Yamuna River-

For the entire day and now also, the yamuna river flowed over the danger mark and caused severe water logs in Delhi and at some areas water till waist!

But,Haryana is expected to release more 30,000 Cubic Centimeter water in coming time.

If this doesn't happen, then water levels have to go down in areas

METD WEATHER has decided to lift the ONGOING MARK 5 ALERT AND ASSOCIATED PDS(PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION) from Delhi and nearby areas at 1800hrs,12th Sept 2010 i.e Sunday since I don't find any weather problem associated!

Given the release of more water from Haryana,conditions can change but I have no technical knowledge on dams

VERY HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TOWARDS DELHI-HARYANA ON SATURDAY

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS,

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

MARK 5 ALERT AND PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS

HEAVY (AT TIMES VERY HEAVY) RAINS WILL HIT NEW DELHI,EASTERN HARYANA, NW UTTAR PRADESH AND MUCH UTTARANCHAL ON SATURDAY,11TH SEPTEMBER 2010 AND ON SUNDAY IN UTTARANCHAL ONLY

SINCE THE YAMUNA RIVER IS ALREADY OVERFLOWING THE DANGER MARK,THE SITUATION CAN BECOME WORSE DUE TO SUCH HEAVY RAINS.

ALSO IN DELHI, WATER LOGGING PROBLEMS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY.

AS HEAVY RAINS WILL STRIKE IN HARYANA AND DELHI THE ALREADY OVERFLOWING YAMUNA RIVER WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY MORE AND I DEFINITELY LOOK THIS SITUATION AS SERIOUS ONE

SO METD WEATHER ISSUES A PDS(PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION) AND A MARK 5 ALERT FOR DELHI,HARYANA DUE TO YAMUNA RIVER

A MARK II ALERT FOR NORTH-WEST UTTAR PRADESH AND UTTARANCHAL

Precautionary measures are always important. So if rainfall intensity remains less then also alert is useful.

SW Monsoon 2010 Revival begins slow! it may miss the mid sept date

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The SW Monsoon 2010 revival has started but the intensity is very less. The season withdraws from Rajasthan but considering the previous rainrates recorded in early Sept. it looks that season is still active in North and West.

Since we are nearing to mid September, things should had changed by this period but I can say nothing significant happening

A new low pressure area is expected to form as per the GFS 12z. This one again looks to be dominant and seems to again SWEEP through Central India. But, I notice a slight southward shift of the Low's embedded Cyclonic circulation and is perhaps due to the southward shift of the local jet streams which happens both during the Monsoon withdrawal and winter approach

Once Winter onsets, jet streams will intensify as there is no significant collision between the arctic air and the tropical air mass.

The direction and location of the jet streams have very important role in the placements of low pressures esp. cyclonic circulations!

So, Orrissa and Maharashtra can remain safe from it and there might not be another Flooding potentials in Vidarbha with it.

If so happens,

Then another low over land will disrupt the withdrawal process. The low is expected to linger over land by 15-16 Sept and definitely will cause some rainfall again in Vidarbha

Nagpur weather forecast

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM IN NAGPUR MOSTLY TILL WEDNESDAY,15TH SEPT WHEN SOME LIGHT TO MDT RAINS WILL HAPPEN IN CONTINUATION FOR SOME DAYS (1-2) DUE TO LOW PRESSURE

7 inch rain in 6hrs at Varoda,Gujarat

There has been a report which I just received that it rained 7 inch or
177.8mm in 6hrs in Gujarat nearly 30mm+ in an hour. I will update more
after I receive confirmation

Heavy rains will continue in south and Central Gujarat for some more hours
Rainfall will go down after Friday afternoon

Heavy rains possible in Gujarat due to the low pressure on Thursday

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

High delay in informing this. Pardon!

The low pressure which recently swept Central India and created massive floods in Bhandara and Gondia dist in East Maharashtra now is almost setting over Gujarat and in association with it, Severe Convective Clouds having a cloud top temperature nearing to -70C have formed at South Gujarat possibly over Daman.

Also a mid level vortex system has built over Eastern Gujarat

Seeing all, I would say that Heavy rains will hit Gujarat on 9th Sept and some periods on 10th sept but not likely to do anything severe.

No potent Flood conditions exist other than for Central gujarat

Extremely heavy rains hit Bhandara,Gondia

Above- The article published in Hitavada paper dated 8th Sept 2010

AS was alerted before. On Tuesday, very very heavy rains Bhandara and Gondia places in East Maharashtra.

Bhandara district recorded 678mm rainfall in 8hours!! (OFFICIAL REPORT FROM IMD)

Bhandara tehsil recorded 110.2mm rains,Mohadi registered 42mm,Tumsar registered 195mm,Paoni-80mm,Sakoli- 138mm,Lakhandur-78mm,

Flooding happened within few hours after the rains as a result of which nearly 49 bus passengers rescued from flooded Bhandara-Paoni road!

Nagpur city recorded 35mm rains as recorded at METD WEATHER hq.

300 Houses damaged in Arjuni Morgaon,

Gondia recorded 101mm rains between 9-11AM.

around 50,000 cubic centimeter water will be released from Wainaganga dam at 10PM today

Water storages in Major lakes-

Itiadoh- 100%,Sirpur-98%,Pujaritola-97%,Kalisarar-92%

Heavy rainfall likely in Nagpur on Tuesday night and Wednesday! perhaps the last time

ATTACHMENTS-

1] SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PLOT FOR INDIA

2] HEAVY RAINFALL PRECIPITATION PLOT

An existing low pressure stationed over West Bengal is expected to track Westwards from Tuesday as being depicted the 12z GFS Weather Models

This low pressure area having an embedded low level circulation or LLC will sweep over Central India from Tuesday to Wednesday thus pumping a lot of moisture pulled in from the Arabian Sea. A reason of being windy in Nagpur since last week when winds at afternoon/evening peaked 18km/hr due to this dominant air pressured low.Thus due to potent moisture deposition combined with the day time hot air rise conflicting with the cool air above, Rains are expected for the FINAL TIME in this season on Tuesday and Wednesday

Also, Multiple mid to low level vortex systems will form as a result of this pressure over Nagpur and other areas intensifying rains. Rains are expected to begin on Tuesday late evening to night period (Timing is subjected to change in relation to the low pressure movement but nearing to 10PM). Afternoon rain shower possible on Tuesday also.

Thus, light to moderate rains will strike. Wednesday, the forecast says that it will be a rainy day

Light to moderate rains will continue all the way and relaxing by evening period

I WOULD ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WATER LOGGING PROBLEMS AGAIN IN NAGPUR ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY

During this time, i.e from Tuesday to Wednesday- VERY Heavy rains are possible to areas within 300km radius of nagpur

briefly Chandrapur,Wardha,Amravati,Yavatmal also

On Wednesday very heavy rains possible at Central Maharashtra

I WILL ALERT FOR FLOODING POTENTIALS IN ALL THESE AREAS AND THEIR NEARBY VILLAGES/TOWN

With this, I am expecting the end of the 2010 SW Monsoon Season in Central India atleast and Northern India since the winds have started changing their course.

They are now taking a west, North-Westerly path and I don't find any new system building up

So I think the rains will be over by Mid September i.e 16th or near.

Tue-Wed heavy rains are most likely to be the LAST TIME IN THIS YEAR

Personal note-

This season , I couldn't send much EMAIL alerts due to very busy schedule but I was constantly updating through social networking sites and my blogs

For more details on FAST WEATHER ALERTS(LOOK BELOW)

--

Akshay Deoras,

akshaydeoras.blogspot.com -
metdweather.blogspot.com- METD WEATHER BLOG ADDRESS TO GET LATEST ON WEATHER

www.facebook.com/metdweather - FACEBOOK ALERT PAGE FOR LATEST AND QUICKEST ALERTS IN NAGPUR

www.twitter.com/akshaydeoras- TWITTER ALERT PAGE FOR METD WEATHER

The low pressure area weakens and backs little East today. Mark II alert in effect for some parts

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

As was expected and mentioned in the earlier post on METD WEATHER, The most anticipated low pressure of this season backed East of the previous position on Monday. This low pressure is a result of the union of two separate low pressures which had formed few days back and had a combined pressure of 996mb

Surprisingly, this slight change in its path will change the entire precipitation outlook this week which was previously issued. This low pressure now will spend another day i.e Tuesday at its current position gaining some strength from its current 1002mb status

If the 850mb plot of GFS 00z, or the embeded Low level circulation associated with this system goes true then the low will sweep through central India by Wednesday-Thursday

As a result of which some very heavy rains will happen possibly on Tuesday late part, Wednesday and some periods on Thursday

Detailed forecast for Areas

Tuesday- The Low pressure is likely to trigger Very heavy rains with a Severe Vortex system enough to intensify the rains with already strong westerlies prevalent

I issue a Mark 2 Alert or Basic preparedness alert for the areas South of Nagpur especially

Yavatmal,Chandrapur etc for Tuesday and wednesday

Wednesday- The low pressure will show some intensification and movements

In all, Very heavy rains possible from South-East Maharashtra to Central Maharashtra

Thursday- Rainfall intensity likely to remain less

Nagpur-

Tuesday- Mostly cloudy skies and expected rainfall (slight) in afternoon hours

Light to Moderate rains will strike at late evening to night period

Wednesday- Similar weather as on Tuesday but slightly increase rainfall at afternoon and evening. Might be a rainy day on Wednesday and partially rains on Thursday

VERY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL INDIA INCLUDING NAGPUR IN COMING TIME!

ABOVE- THE FIRST IMAGE SHOWS THE THAI MAP OF 12Z SHOWING INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OF 996MB.

SECOND IMAGE IS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAP SHOWING THE CONCENTRIC CIRCLED BLUE AREA WHICH ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS IN NAGPUR

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

SHOCK! SHOCK! SHOCK!

An extensive low pressure area has formed by the union of two separate low pressures in Eastern India. The earlier Sea level pressure maps were showing the two systems had a pressure of 1002mb, but the thai map of 12UTC,4th Sept are confirming an area of 996mb has formed over NE Maharashtra. This low pressure with an embeded low level circulation or LLC, will again travel Westwards from its current location by crossing Central India.

Such situations of low pressures sweeping central India already have caused a lot of damage in many areas due to strong winds and rains. Those times, the air pressure was nearing to 998mb.

The 12z, GFS is indicating that this LLC will spend one more day at its position and then set off by Monday and naturally reach Central India at that time. If its intensity continues to remain the same, then VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS will hit in Central India and Nagpur also(covering all the parts of Vidarbha)

I see that this low pressure will maintain its strength till next 12hrs or so!

Forecast-

The entire forecast is dependent on this system's movements. On Saturday,very heavy rains struck Nagpur in afternoon period due to the far presence of this low and lot of convection organizing over Nagpur given the perfect low level convergence over Vidarbha

According to the expected track, FOR NAGPUR

Sunday- During the day, it will be mostly cloudy. An unexpected strong spell of rain again possible in late afternoon hours or anytime in afternoon! At night, light to moderate showers are expected.

The forecast is similar to all nearby areas

Monday- Mostly cloudy sky with A strong spell of rain especially thunderstorm possible in late afternoon hours. For Monday, the low pressure area is expected to shift slightly east

Monday night- Possible Heavy rains will hit in Nagpur

Tuesday- Expected to be a rainy day due to the low pressure. Severe rains likely to hit !

Thus, heavy rains likely to strike on Monday night- Tuesday late night period with possible flood like situation in Nagpur and all areas in 250km radius of the city

How will La~ Nina affect India's weather in 2010

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

The cooling phase of equatorial pacific also termed as La Nina which had begun last month is now in full swing as per the datas of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the precipitation anomaly in the la nina affected areas. A strong rainfall anomaly already happening in South,East Australia and Western USA.. Noted heavy rains or above normal rains are happening in parts of Australia and drought conditions happening in Western USA.

A La Nina is a global climatological phenomena happening in Equatorial pacific when the sea waters in central equatorial pacific starts cooling down! The reason for this is very simple. During La Nina, the trade winds blowing from East to West strengthen as a result of which the cooler water near South America rushes in the place of warm waters which happen during an opposite El~ Nino phase. This actually brings a very cool pool of water in Eastern Asia stretching to Australia and thus it causes more than average rains in these areas and also in parts of asia.

This phenomena always is preceded by El Nino and can last as long as 9 months to 12months! La Nina happens in 3-5yrs.Since the warm/cool water replacement is followed by high/low pressure formations. At places where warm SST is, warm air rises and a low pressure is formed.

From the present Sea surface temperature plots in the equatorial pacific,SST at the Central EQ.pacific have cooled upto to 2C.

This La Nina condition is expected to stay uptil early 2011 so its definite that the winters in India and in Asia are going to be affected!

How can La Nina affect India's weather

In La Nina, the global easterlies strengthen as a result of weakening of the westward moving winds in the pacific. In USA, a high pressure area actually forms in Northern Pacific which blocks the jet stream path as a result the polar jet stream flows through central USA thus making very cold there esp NW USA

In India, the cool water shifts towards the seas near the mainland and causes more than average rains since there is a strong and entire shift in the Indian Ocean Dipole which is a sort of ENSO or Elnino southern oscillation in Indian ocean where there is a regular change in the Sea surface temperatures in west and east Indian ocean.

In India, winters are expected to remain cooler than normal since the local jet streams dig more inland. However at this stage, the exact details of winter can't be described but I w'd expect a cooler than normal winter in Northern India and slightly slightly cool in central India.

When will the SW Monsoon 2010 end over Central India?

The NE Monsoon or Monsoon retreat begins in October and brings the cool air from Northern India to central parts. Right now in early september, this cycle hasn't initiated!

An active MJO cell currently stationed in the 140E Pacific is not expected to move towards India i.e oceans near India which means that the SW 2010 season can get over as per the predicted time

I have an estimation that in Central India, Northern India the season will conclude by mid september

Possible End of SW Monsoon in central India in an active mode

The anticipated low pressure currently situated over Eastern India is likely to shift westwards crossing central India and causing an additional moisture deposition over Central India.

Another low pressure just NW of the present one in bay of bengal also expected to move inwards

However, the intensity of these low pressures is not expected to be very strong as a result of which I think Rains Won't create a havoc in central India.

But if some vortices or Multiple Vortex systems builds over Central India as being depicted by GFS, then Nagpur and other nearby areas can get sure and good rainfall starting from Sunday night uptil Tuesday.

I will update separately as the situation unfurls!

Earl weakens considerably. Eyewall to pass just south of Outerbanks,NC

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

Hurricane Earl has weakened considerably in the last few hours due to the eyewall replacement and entering cooler SST.Its also clear from the weak banding feature of Earl. Earl as on 11PM EDT is a Cat.2 Hurricane with central max sustained winds of 105mph,Central pressure of 951mb and moving NNE @ 18mph.

From the current satellite imagery, looks like Earl will just pass few miles east of outer banks,North Carolina! So precautions must be taken.

Earl's next hit can be SE of New England on Saturday but since its now getting a very strong upper level shears, dry air input and cooler SST from Cape Hatteras, before striking SE New england, it will be just a Tropical storm or Depression

Hurricane Earl weakens to Cat 3 due to eyewall replacement and cooler SST!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Just a short while ago, I had posted that Atlantic's major hurricane Earl was undergoing an eye wall replacement or new eyewall formation process in which the wind fields increase and reduce intensity of hurricane. 

Earl's system is still undergoing a new eyewall formation and as of 2PM EDT,2nd Sept Earl is a CAT 3 hurricane-

Max sustained winds are 125mph with central pressure of 943mb...

I w'd not be surprised if earl' still looses its intensity in next 6hrs or so! 

After it will gain a stable eyewall, the intensity is likely to remain unchanged( not showing an increasing tendancy) since much cooler SST are present near Earl and the disturbing upper level shears!

Forward track

Right now, EARL IS MOVING 18MPH NORTH! Which means it will just pass few kilometers (eyewall will pass) from outer banks in North Carolina. But the outer bands or rainbands to the west of eye will affect the coasts. 

Landfall time remains nearly the same mentioned earlier. 

A good news in this activity can be that a pool of dry air currently situated over Eastern USA can move away in Earl's path in atlantic due to the westerlies and can dump significant dry air in Earl's system which can permanently halt its strengthening and which can prove to be good for residents at Nova Scotia where Earl will strike as a low cat hurricane by Saturday

Hurricane Earl might have another Eyewall replacement and reduction in intensity!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Seeing from the 15:15UT satellite imagery, a new eyewall is most likely forming just south of the present eyewall. For some strong hurricanes like Earl, eye wall replacement or change of the base eye of the system is a natural process and hurricanes weaken little since the wind field increases in size making it less symmetric!

Earl's position now is just away form the subtropical ridge which is to its south and earl is now being steered by the local winds or westerlies! Due to this, Earl will make a curved path just offshore few miles of outer banks of North Carolina on Friday early morning period

But, a slight west turn can steer it over outer banks of NC and cause tremendous damage

If the eyewall replacement is in process, earl's weakening is likely on track since its max. sustained winds have gone down to 140 m/hr from 145m/hr! 

Some more wind shears are also expected to build up in next 24hrs and Earl entering to a cooler ocean

SO, it looks it will make a threatening pass with a Max sustained winds nearing to 130-135mph well in Cat.4

Hurricane Earl update at 8AM EDT,2nd sept

Hurricane Earl is continuing its track towards USA and the intensity as well.

At 8AM EDT on 2nd sept, Earl was at 30.1N,74.8W with 145mph winds at center. Its moving 18mph at NNW and having a central pressure of 932mb

Earl's path continues to be the same but little eastwards shift near the outer banks,NC

The current possibility is that Earl might miss North Carolina totally!

However, I am still finding Earl to strike the coasts of outer banks by 11PM,THU to 2AM Friday EDT

Current alerts are of 0800AM EDT,2nd sept

BELOW

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND 

WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

 A HURRICANE WARNING IS

 IN EFFECT FOR...

 * BOGUE INLET NORTH 

CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD

 TO THE NORTH 

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

 INCLUDING THE PAMLICO

 AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN 

EFFECT FOR...

 * NORTH OF THE 

NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA

 BORDER TO CAPE 

HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

 * WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH

 MASSACHUSETTS..

.INCLUDING MARTHAS 

VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

 A TROPICAL STORM

 WARNING IS IN 

EFFECT FOR... *

 CAPE FEAR TO

 WEST OF BOGUE

 INLET NORTH CAROLINA. 

* NORTH OF THE NORTH 

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER 

TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY.

..INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY

 SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH 

AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 

SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

 * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND 

NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND

 INLET NORTHWARD AND 

EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. * NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE. * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR. 

8:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 30.1°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: NNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb

Hurricane Earl closing Eastern Coast of USA! Landfall near possible in coastal North Carolina!

THE 0855 UT WVAPOUR SATELLITE IMAGERY OF EARL

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster,

All the previous forecasts have proved wrong! Atlantic's major Hurricane Earl re-intensified as per the GDSL model by late night period. Since that, Earl has a massive convection happening at its core with a stable eyewall. Also the dry air seems to have been shifting away from Earl.

EARL POSITION AT 5AM EDT,2ND SEPTEMBER

29.3N,74.7E WITH WINDS AT CENTER AROUND 145MPH AND 928MB AIR PRESSURE

EARL IS MOVING NNW AT 18MPH

IT IS 410 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS,NC

Forecast models are indicating that no new shears will build on the way and the dry air has also shifted more north wards giving Earl a good chance of intensification.. .

Earl is moving in slightly cooler water but some warm waters present near the coast can add to intensification

My estimates look for a Cat. 4 landfall today in coastal North Carolina

Landfall most likely near 12-02AM EDT on Friday at coastal North Carolina NE of Wilmington,NC

High winds,Rains and storm surges possible with RIP CURRENTS!

Hurricane Earl expected to create damaging RIP currents in South Carolina

NHC EARLS PATH AT 2PM EDT,1/09/10
METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Severe Weather Forecaster

Hurricane Earl has not shown any more strengthening in the last 12hrs and is a Cat 3 hurricane with Winds around 125mph( max sustained at the center). Earl is having a min central pressure of 941mb. In accordance, the National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Alert along the coastal Carolinas and a Rip current alert in coastal North Carolina

EARL'S FORECAST

No more wind shears have developed around Hurricane Earl. Wind shears at upper and mid levels are responsible for unorganising the storm system and gradually weakening it. A strong Convection is taking place and Earl now has a well defined eye wall which is being confirmed by the satellite imageries

The guidance models indicate that no significant shears will develop in next 12-18hrs on Earl's path and as it will encounter warmer SST, it might re-intensify. However only GFDL model is suggesting the re-intensification while rest models including GFS say it will maintain its state.

Currently, Earl's steering winds are the associated Subtropical ridge. It will shift westwards of the ridge and heading more Northwards, the steering winds will be the westerlies.

METD WEATHER forecast says that Earl is not likely to intensify any more!

RIP CURRENT ALERT

Strong RIP currents are likely when Earl tracks North-westwards along the coasts of Carolinas particularly in North Carolina. When the coastal water rushes back towards the open sea because of many reasons and in this aspect the High winds from a Major Hurricane. Such rip currents can easily pull in a swimmer who is swimming in the sea at this time.

Rip currents are more powerful at the time of low tides.

Timing-

Earl's expected to make a partial landfall i.e the outer bands of Earl striking areas at Northern Coastal North Carolina is mostly Thursday late night to friday early morning hours.

However RIP current alert will begin by Thursday evening

Strong storm surges and high winds followed by heavy rains are very likely during the event