THE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK CONVECTION ORGANIZATION!
Severe Weather Forecaster
BOB 03 continues to be a tropical depression with a fairly developed structure. Located 410NM south-south east of Kolkata, the system continues to be a in a continuous problem due to the persistent and INCREASING wind shear!
The anticyclone present over China is causing strong easterlies to blow around this low and its definitely affecting the system.
Early morning satellite imagery indicates massive convection happening at the Western quadrant of the low since a well set 10kt wind shear to the NE of low is shearing the environment for organization.
Low level convergence has started building up to 10kt around the low with upper level conditions continue to remain very good.
It seems that the tropical depression is not going to strengthen any more on significant scale since I don't find the wind shears decreasing which are the biggest problem associated with this setup. SST continues to be 29C around and favorable.
The Min air pressure in this low seems to be 998mb at afternoon hours of today
Maximum winds are near to 25kt.
METD WEATHER forecasts that this tropical depression will remain A tropical depression with maximum winds rise little on 14th Oct and then start declining.
System might have good Western Symmetric shape since shears dominate in east and convergence building in west at lower levels
I don't find this one becoming a Tropical Storm and max pressure will fall upto 996mb by 15th Oct 2010.
LANDFALL WILL BE ON 15TH OCT 2010 IN AFTERNOON-EVENING HRS
(EXACT TIME TO BE CONVEYED LATER)
THREAT FOR ROUGH SEAS,HEAVY RAINS,GALE WINDS AND STORM SURGES CONTINUE.
SEE THE METD WEATHER SEVERE WEATHER MAP OF INDIA ON THE BLOG!