Severe weather heading towards South-East India in early NOV

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

An intense pulse of disturbed weather or referred as Tropical wave currently stalled at East of South China Sea at a minimum air pressure of 1006mb is expected to propagate westwards in early November intensifying enroute!

Update from Thai Meteorological Dept.

ประกาศเตือนภัย "ฝนตกหนักในภาคใต้และคลื่นลมแรงในอ่าวไทย" ฉบับที่ 16 ลงวันที่ 30 ตุลาคม 2553

During 30-31 October, the ridge of intense high pressure from China still covers Thailand. The active low pressure cell covers the lower South China Sea. Abundant rain and isolated heavy rain are likely of the Surat Thani southward with strong wind and wave in the Gulf. People in risky areas along hill slope near waterways and in lowlands should beware of severe weather and possible flash flood. The disaster areas includeNakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Trang and Satun. High landward wave in the shore line of the South East Coast, people in the areas should beware of high wave. All ships should proceed with caution, and small boats in the Gulf keep ashore during this period. Cooler weather with 1-3 oC drops is likely in the North, the Northeast, the Central and the East. During 1-3 November, an active low cell over the lower South China Sea will move to the Gulf and the middle southern Thailand. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are expected in the South.

As seen from the GFS Cyclone prediction models, the low pressure will move Westwards from 1st Nov 2010 giving rough seas in South China Sea and heavy rains on the way too. Low will cross near SURAT THANI,THAILAND( SEE WARNING ABOVE).The Low will enter the 2010 North Indian ocean Cyclone season boundary limits near to Nov 2 2010 with

air pressure around 1000mb and not much deepening as the SST in South China sea are relatively colder than Bay of Bengal.

From Nov 2 onwards, this low will start deepening given the all excellent conditions pr

ominently Sea surface temp over 28C, nice moisture at selected layers and hopefully little wind shears.

Upper divergence will be good for this system as GFS indicates a warm core setup intensifying at deep level. Low level convergence and wind shears will be the key for this prediction

Going with the GFS, low will intensity into a Tropical Depression in mid Bay of Bengal and around 6-7th Nov 2010 will move for a landfall around Chennai,Tamil Nadu,India. As a result, this depression will bring lot of rains, storm surges, rough sea all the way( METD WEATHER ALERT MAP WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW AFTERNOON)............

Chance of Cyclone from it?

Chance is looking good! But without the real time data, I can't predict anything now.