Severe Weather Forecaster
Widespread convection already has fired in the central bay of bengal as was expected.
Cloud top temperatures of -50 to -60C are indicating intense convection happening with developing center of Low level circulation( signs of low pressure intensification) in an environment of light-moderate vertical shears and favorable upper divergence.
SST in the region are 29C which are very favorable for more fueling of the low as warmer sst means more latent heat release from the system as the upper conditions continue to remain favorable for it.
In the 00z GFS,12th Oct 2010
The SLP is showing that intense low pressure falling below to 992mb will happen on 16th Oct in Bay.
Also from the 700mb map, I see less banding feature around the low which might be the indicator that low might not strengthen to a Severe Cyclonic storm (Absence of well defined eyewall) . Tropical Depression looks very certain on 15th Oct 2010.
After slamming Orissa coasts and interiors as depicted by warning map, the low will travel towards central India by 17th Oct 2010 and might have pressure upto 1000mb.
This seems to be a simply low as per GFS but GFS cyclone prediction models show pressure nearing to 990mb.
Nagpur will get rains starting on 17th Oct 2010(Holy festival Dushera day) i.e Sunday
The Nagpur forecast will be put and (updated regularly ) on METD WEATHER's blog page-
nagpur weather update and on Facebook fanpage
No change in METD WEATHER alerts