Tuesday, October 5, 2010

The Bay of Bengal Low pressure is likely to delay winter onset in Central India by a week

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

What was looking like an onset of winter conditions over Nagpur in the last week is now gone. In the last week, the well set low offshore Karnataka had attracted winds from the northern parts of India as there were no other dominant air pressure. With the weakening of that stationary low having all stationary aspects in terms of Systems thermodynamic performance a new existing low pressure in Bay (Refer previous article) is shaping up. The initial North-West and later north surge of this low will pull off the NE Monsoon Retreating winds . Also associated with this low expected 1000mb by GFS,12z RUNS in few days will set up a more West-East 850mb winds towards this weekend with some straight N-S winds over Central India till this mid week.
Minimum temperatures which had fallen to 16C last week at Wardha and 20.3 C in Nagpur are already rising with lows nearing to 23C
I had mentioned that temperatures will drop again from this mid week in Central India but I now extend that period.
After that low vanishes the W-E winds over central India will be controlled by the movement of that existing low pressure offshore Karnataka. The Low as per GFS and ECMWF is expected to remain quite strong as it heads towards Gujarat the next week. As it does winds again will have a N-S tendancy pulling in cool air and dropping minimum temperatures at THE FULL SW MONSOON 2010 WITHDRAWAL PERIOD.

In all,
This week will be warmer than expected. I think temperatures will start coming down at minimum in Nagpur and Central India from mid next week

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