Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
As was mentioned in the previous post,a low pressure area has already formed in the South-Western Bay of Bengal.
Expected air pressure of 1002 mb with this system stationed more towards the warm core symmetric side as shown by the 900-600mb thickness, this system is likely to intensify more given the mid-upper level thermal air tendancy of shallow warm core at the upper levels
(EXPERIMENTAL MODEL- USE WITH CAUTION)
GFS expects this low to feature 1000mb at minimum and be more towards a Warm core setup but the intensity will remain less as the forecast models are indicating a shallow warm core at upper levels till 10th Oct.
Tropical Cyclones require Deep Warm core for development and reach peak intensity during this phase. Then Extratropical transition stage begins
Well defined Low level circulation also exists with this system with UAC also
EFFECTS OF THIS LOW
The path of the low pressure seems to be just on track NW since the 200-300mb Steering winds have that type of flow.
Very heavy rains will hit Tamil Nadu,Pondicherry Eastern coasts along with Andhra Pradesh South Eastern Coast on 6th and 7th Oct 2010 that is Wednesday and Thursday
METD WEATHER issues a Mark 3 alert for areas PONDICHERRY,CHENNAI,KARKAIKAL IN PONDICHERRY,NELLORE IN AP
Intensity of rains will be Moderate-Heavy in 6th and 7th as the low passes close
to them
THURSDAY,7TH OCT 2010
THIS LOW WILL NEAR TO EASTERN COAST OF ORISSA,WEST BENGAL
Very heavy rains will hit on 7,8,9, ( particularly on Friday,8th Oct 2010)
ALERTED AREAS INCLUDE NE ORISSA LIKE PARADWIP,DIGHA WEST BENGAL,HALDIA,KOLKATA,KHARAGPUR)
MARK 3 ALERT FROM METD WEATHER IN PROGRESS
The entire forecast depends on the low pressure movement and can be changed as per the new model runs!
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