Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Bay of Bengal low strengthening.Threatens Eastern coast for rains


METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The featured low pressure in the bay of bengal 95B is strengthening.
As seen from the current 13:30 IST satellite image, the low pressure has massive -80C cloud tops.
AS ON 12Z,6TH OCT 2010
LOW IS POSITIONED AT 15.5N,85.5E
WINDS AT 925MB ARE 34KT(AS PER GFS WITH MIN PRESSURE AT THAT LEVEL NEARING TO 996MB)
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL- USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has mentioned a "Poor chance of Tropical Cyclone from it"
As featured in the 12z Thai map coupled with 12z GFS Cyclone models, the low now has intensity of 998mb! The computer forecast models are not in the agreement of further significant strengthening of this low since a well set 20kt deep layer wind shear with absolu
tely zero convergence present.
Also the thermodynamic conditions haven't improved with much towards a Weak symmetric warm core (as of symmetry) . The computer models also indicate that low will be dominant on 7th and then it will begin the extratropical transitioning
This system however will be very dangerous in terms of the rainfall which is likely to happen in parts of coastal Orissa,West Bengal and happening at Coastal AP,Tamil
Nadu with Pondicherry a
lso
All the alerts issued by METD WEATHER continue without any modification! Please note
MARK 3 ALERT IN EFFECT

"""Very heavy rains will hit Tamil Nadu,Pondicherry Eastern coasts along with Andhra Pradesh South Eastern Coast on 6th and 7th Oct 2010 that is Wednesday and Thursday
METD WEATHER issues a Mark 3 alert for areas PONDICHERRY,CHENNAI,KARKAIKAL
IN PONDICHERRY,NELLORE IN AP
Intensity of rains will be Moderate-Heavy in 6th and 7th as the low passes close
to them

THURSDAY,7TH OCT 2010
this LOW WILL NEAR EASTERN COAST OF ORISSA,WEST BENGAL
Very heavy rains will hit on 7,8,9, ( particularly on Friday,8th Oct 2010)
ALERTED AREAS INCLUDE NE ORISSA LIKE PARADWIP,DIGHA WEST BENGAL,HALDIA,KOLKATA,KHARAGPUR)
MARK 3 ALERT FROM METD WEATHER IN PROGRESS"""

Stay tuned for more updates

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