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Saturday, October 9, 2010

Its going to be Tropical Cyclone GIRI in Bay of Bengal

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

All ingredients are coming together for the 4th Cyclone of 2010 North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season...
GFS solutions for Bay of Bengal are very classic and consistent showing a strong low pressure

Forecast
The already formed low pressure 1002 mb offshore Andhra Pradesh in the Bay of Bengal will quickly move towards the Eastern Bay of Bengal near Myanmar on 11th Oct 2010
Given the excellent 28-29C SST offshore Myanmar,development of a Low level
cyclonic circulation,
Less wind shears, and favorable upper atmospheric conditions,
The low pressure 1004mb as on 11th Oct will strengthen to a classic 992mb and even deeper as real Sea level pressure is more intense than that forecasted by GFS.
Given the moist atmosphere, that low pressure is most likely to become a Tropical Cyclone on 13-14th Oct 2010 in the North-Central Bay of Bengal.

It will be named Cyclone Giri as per the IMD naming process
This cyclone will head for a landfall in the 16N-20N LATITUDE WINDOW AT 80-84E LONGITUDE
I.e Landfall will be at Eastern-North Eastern Andhra Pradesh to South Eastern Orissa with areas such as Machilipatna
m,Yanam in Pondicherry,Vishakhapatnam,Srikakulam etc.....

This landfall will take place on 15th Oct 2010 late period to 16th Oct 2010 near Machilipatnam,AP

Intensity forecast by METD WEATHER
As per the GFS Cyclone Model runs of 00z,10th Oct 2010
This system will have a well
definied symmetric warm core in it as per the 900-600mb Storm Relative Thickness symmetry and the mid-upper level winds will be Deep warm core related.
This means that the inten
sity of this cyclone will remain very strong. I expect it as a Cat.1 Cyclone or even stronger than it
When I had forecaster c
yclone Phet, its air pressure (Min) on GFS models was near to 990mb which is a normal Cat.1 cyclone but Phet turned to be a Cat 4 cyclone

I w'd not be surprised to find Cyclone Giri very strong especially in the -1.5 Negative Madden Julian Oscillation.


ALERTS-
(SEE THE FRONT PAGE OF www.metdweather.blogspot.com) for the Graphical Alert Map

MARK 5 ALERT WITH PDS WILL BE SHORTLY ISSUED ON 11TH OCT 2010 FOR NORTH-EASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH,SOUTH EASTERN ORISSA
ALERT WILL BE FOR ROUGH SEA,GALE WARNING,LANDFALL WARNING WITH HEAVY RAIN WARNING

NAGPUR WEATHER-
NAGPUR CITY WILL WITNESS RAINS ON SATURDAY,16TH OCT 2010 DUE TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIRI

*** ENTIRE FORECAST SUBJECTED TO MOVEMENT AND FORMATION OF CYCLONE

PERCENTAGE
CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 95%
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE - 70%+
CHANCE OF SEVERE CYCLONE - 50%

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