The GFS model 700 mb precipitation and satellite imagery showing rainband building on East and south of low
Severe Weather Forecaster
The morning satellite imagery coupled with 00z GFS 700mb precipitation plot are suggestive or rainbands formation. Banding feature around a developing low level circulation has picked up today early morning as the low strengthens to 1002mb. Situated in an environment of 29-30C SST at 15-17N at 90-93E and little deep layer shear and little convergence building, the system will continue to organize today (not becoming symmetric today only due to the shear).
A nice upper divergent flow of 20kt causing low intensification in moist environment.
As seen from the NHC enhancement, and infrared BD enhancement, deep convection is still exploding with intense cloud tops of -70C
Indian Meteorological Dept announced a Tropical Depression 97B (BOB 03) on 13th Oct 2010 just as METD WEATHER had estimated and pre-warned since last 5 days.
The depression has a low pressure of 1002 mb since morning and maximum surface wind of 45km/hr at center. As per IMD, the state of sea is very rough at the center.
At present, the system lies in a little wind shear that definitely has affected the symmetry of the system since morning satellite images. The recent 14z satellite imagery is showing a total vanish of the rainbands,Low level circulation center and super symmetry as was looking in the morning
Right now 10-20kt deep layer shear is present that is definitely affecting the setup.
SST continues to be around 29C.
The CIMSS models are indicating that wind shear tendency HAS BEEN decreasing SINCE LAST 24hrs around this low pressure. The models indicate the decrease by a factor of 5kt! This means by tomorrow wind shears will become near to 5kt -10kt...
Upper level continues to remain good with very favorable upper divergence encouraging the system to release the latent heat.
Situated at South-East of Subtropical ridge, I estimate THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL INTENSIFY ON 14TH OCT 2010 GIVEN THE DECREASING SHEAR AND PROMINENT MORE LLC ORGANIZATION.
THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BEEN TERMED "FAIR CHANCE" OF CYCLONE AS PER JTWC.
I ESTIMATE THAT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MORE INTENSE WINDS AND RAINS. THIS LOW WILL HIT THE MARKED AREA ON METD WEATHER ALERT IMG ON 15TH OCT NIGHT(EXACT TIME WILL BE CONVEYED LATER)