Tropical Depression making landfall at Thailand today.Heads towards India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated Tropical Depression is swirling in the South China Sea approximately 270km SE of Songkhla province in Thailand. Expected to have maximum winds of 50km/hr at the center, landfall will happen in next 15-17hrs as the forwards ( NW approach) velocity is 15km/hr barely and having very compact structure.

This depression as per Thai Meteorological Dept. is expected to move through the southern part along Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Satun, Pattani province, Trang, Krabi, Phuket and Phang Nga tonight looks like this area to the south. From Thursday to a wide area with rain. And heavy rain.

This depression will rapidly intensify in the Bay of Bengal given the excellent conditions required. The main concern which always dominates is of the wind shears.

This depression might convert to a Tropical Cyclone but a unsymmetrical warm core and weak banding features might happen ( possibly due to developing wind shears) which might prevent This depression from becoming HUGE

This depression now is expected to make a landfall on 7th Nov as the forward speed is expected to remain very less

Severe weather heading towards South-East India in early NOV

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

An intense pulse of disturbed weather or referred as Tropical wave currently stalled at East of South China Sea at a minimum air pressure of 1006mb is expected to propagate westwards in early November intensifying enroute!

Update from Thai Meteorological Dept.

ประกาศเตือนภัย "ฝนตกหนักในภาคใต้และคลื่นลมแรงในอ่าวไทย" ฉบับที่ 16 ลงวันที่ 30 ตุลาคม 2553

During 30-31 October, the ridge of intense high pressure from China still covers Thailand. The active low pressure cell covers the lower South China Sea. Abundant rain and isolated heavy rain are likely of the Surat Thani southward with strong wind and wave in the Gulf. People in risky areas along hill slope near waterways and in lowlands should beware of severe weather and possible flash flood. The disaster areas includeNakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Trang and Satun. High landward wave in the shore line of the South East Coast, people in the areas should beware of high wave. All ships should proceed with caution, and small boats in the Gulf keep ashore during this period. Cooler weather with 1-3 oC drops is likely in the North, the Northeast, the Central and the East. During 1-3 November, an active low cell over the lower South China Sea will move to the Gulf and the middle southern Thailand. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are expected in the South.

As seen from the GFS Cyclone prediction models, the low pressure will move Westwards from 1st Nov 2010 giving rough seas in South China Sea and heavy rains on the way too. Low will cross near SURAT THANI,THAILAND( SEE WARNING ABOVE).The Low will enter the 2010 North Indian ocean Cyclone season boundary limits near to Nov 2 2010 with

air pressure around 1000mb and not much deepening as the SST in South China sea are relatively colder than Bay of Bengal.

From Nov 2 onwards, this low will start deepening given the all excellent conditions pr

ominently Sea surface temp over 28C, nice moisture at selected layers and hopefully little wind shears.

Upper divergence will be good for this system as GFS indicates a warm core setup intensifying at deep level. Low level convergence and wind shears will be the key for this prediction

Going with the GFS, low will intensity into a Tropical Depression in mid Bay of Bengal and around 6-7th Nov 2010 will move for a landfall around Chennai,Tamil Nadu,India. As a result, this depression will bring lot of rains, storm surges, rough sea all the way( METD WEATHER ALERT MAP WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW AFTERNOON)............

Chance of Cyclone from it?

Chance is looking good! But without the real time data, I can't predict anything now.

High risk for Severe Weather now!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

(AS HELICITY 0-1KM IS GOING TO BE OVER 400 M2 S2 IN ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE BRIEFLY,A PDS IS IN EFFECT AS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER. LONG TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE)

Severe Weather Forecaster

Severe storms are firi

ng in the HIGH RISK NOW in southern areas of Great Lakes as the low level jet continues to intensify in the warm sector east of cold front. 4 tornadoes have been reported till now two in Illinois, one in Kentucky and Wisconsin each.

The RUC 13z run

In the newly issued RUC plot, low level jet continues to intensify and having maximum jet speed of 60kt! over Great lakes area and spreading as south as Kentucky as the intense low pressure continues to pass through Wisconsin this morning.Low level shears are excellent now and I now estimate some strong

(few though) tornadoes in Indiana and Ohio!

Due to very fast speed of storms arranged in a linear fashion, surface winds will be very strong and damaging gusts ofcourse as a result of which SPC has issued a 60% risk of winds

My tornado target remains at NE Indiana to NW Ohio area and I expect few tornadoes in morning period as later of the day, wind shears which right now are over 400m2 s2 will decrease!

MODERATE RISK AT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES,USA

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Moderate risk

IMG-1 MDT RISK

IMG-2 the 850mb map

A classic strong 160kt jet stream is digging in USA currently over Western USA and developing in the next 24hrs will bring a round of Severe Weather in areas south of Great lakes

Seen from 18z+24hrs 300mb plot, the trough will develop and severe weather will plunge at the nose of it briefly over Eastern,South Eastern Illinois,much of Indiana,Ohio and extending till southern limits of Michigan.

Surface Cyclogenesis has already started as a strong low pressure area is building in Northern USA due to the jet and will move east with the stationary front at the Canadian Border into Minnesota,Wisconsin.

On Tuesday, strong low pressure less than 990mb will sweep east with the cold front in the southern areas of Great lakes(Areas mentioned above) associated with very strong low level jets of 60kt adding to Moderate threat and the warm sector resting with a dewpoint near to 70F. Instability (Max and AVG 30mb) seems to be less as compared to an ideal setup but CAPE values nearing 2000J/Kg added with good Precipitable water (1"+) will develop over Eastern Illinois to Indiana in a solid Wind shear environment(Ground helicity 0-1km) upto 200m2 s2 will be developing over Indiana later of the day.

Main threat lies for the Wind as strong surface winds are expected in the above regions as the linear thunderstorms brace east with the air pressure moving east at Canada border

Hails also will be there and some isolated tornadoes possible.

As per me, Threat for damaging wind gusts and hails is more than tornado. Tornado chance is more in North,NE Indiana and Central Ohio.

HAILSTORM IN NORTHERN INDIA,CAT 4 CYCLONE GIRI MAKES A LANDFALL,SEVERE WEATHER AT NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A very Severe Thunderstorm from the extension of the present Western Disturbance or effect of Trough digging happened today afternoon at Himachal Pradesh and prominently at Chandigarh and Punjab. Around 1500hrs(IST) 0930hrs(GMT), intense thunderstorm with well developed updraft formed over Punjab as a result of rich environment from the western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir coupled with a strong vortex extending from mid to low level atmosphere helping the updraft. Hails of the size of pea (In Ludhiana,Punjab) and possibly of little large size struck Chandigarh

and most areas of Punjab which happened shortly after IT WAS HIGHLY DARK LIKE LATE EVENING IN CHANDIGARH DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD.

Heavy rains then followed the setup with gusty winds,a typical feature of Mean level Vortex system in atmosphere though CAPE was minimal.

People in Punjab had to use their vehicles light,street lights at that time.

(RIGHT- 500MB MAP OF 00Z GFS SHOWING POSITIVE VORTICITY AT MID LEVELS OVER PUNJAB WHICH HAS BEEN CAUSE OF THE EVENT. POSITIVE VORTICITY FAVORS STORMS DEVELOPMENT AND FIRING)

Around 1645hrs(1115hrs GMT) A dust storm with gusty winds and Hails with rains also hit Delhi city and caused conditions similar to Punjab!

2] SUPER CYCLONE GIRI

Super cyclone Giri or CYCLONE FULL OF SURPRISES !! Strengthened to a Cat 4 today! before making a landfall at Myanmar around Kyaukphyu at late afternoon period

The NRL (Naval Research Lab) reported a pressure at minimum of 922mb at landfall with winds of 250km/hr ( 1 min sustained ) and A CATEGORY 4 LEVEL ON SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE

A prominent reason to why GIRI became a very strong like a mountain( Giri is sanskrit word for Mountain) is that it was a cyclone having slow forward speed and no trouble from Wind shears as they had troubled Deep Depression BOB 03 which had struck Orissa past week.

BOB 03 had 20kt+ Wind shear interference and so it didn't strengthen despite being a Slow forward speed tropical low!

Giri had fair 10kt or less wind shears and rest conditions were OUTRAGEOUS!

(RIGHT- TROPICAL CYCLONE CAT 4 GIRI AT LANDFALL AROUND 0630PM IST I.E 1300HRS GMT)

Giri must have made extensive damage in Rakhine state of Myanmar

See Mr.Ashok Patel's, Fellow Weather expert 's page for more last minute updates on Giri

as I was unable to provide !

3] Severe Weather to unfurl in North Central Texas

Severe thunderstorms with tornadic features are likely in North Central Tx and SE Oklahoma today as a result of the eastward progression of Linear storms created yesterday at North Mexico and favored Convection due over North Central TX due to Cape near 2000J/Kg nice Southerly Low level jets of 30kt and favored moisture for convection with no CAP.

The Hodographs are in agreement for nice rotations around North of Denton,Texas which is my Tornado Target for the day as conditions come together here East of cold front and near to outflow boundary. Rapid convection will intensify to some supercells providing a tornado and hails here and SPC SHIFTS 5% tornado risk to North Central TX,SOme southern areas of OK from Panhandle which was in early morning on Friday!

4] APPROACHING WINTER IN INDIA

Since the effect from BOB 03 sweep are now minimising and the Anticyclone will regenerate pushing away moistures at low levels, A well North-South air flow at low levels and strong cooling in north will pull cool air over Central India from this weekend and causing temperatures to drop from next week in Central India,Nagpur also while minimum temperatures in much of Punjab continue to be around 15C!

SO FRIDAY,22ND OCT 2010 WAS MARKED AS MULTIPLE WEATHER EVENT DAY

Multiple Weather events happened/happening today
1) Kashmir valley receives first snowfall
2) Strong Thunderstorm with PEA size hails in Chandigarh and Punjab
3) Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Giri in Myanmar
4) Severe Weather will happen with some tornadoes in North-Central Texas,USA
ITS HAPPENING

Cat.2 cyclone Giri making a landfall at Myanmar

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Cyclone Giri has intensified to a Cat2 level and having min air pressure near to 974mb and winds upto 160km/hr at the center! The infrared satellite imagery is showing that an eyewall has developed at the center of Giri and is now striking around Chauklangwe in Myanmar.

Giri will bring very heavy rains,winds and storm surge south of Sittwe in Myanmar

The eyewall is now passing over land!

Snowfall in Kashmir valley.Minimum Temperature drops at many places in North India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

* KASHMIR VALLEY RECEIVES FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON.

3" + SNOW ACCUMULATED IN GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM,ANANTNAG,ZOJILLA PASS,

** SRINAGAR-LEH HIGHWAY TEMPORARILY STOPPED AT ZOJILLA PASS

** SRINAGAR RECEIVES 37.2MM RAINS TILL 8AM THIS MORNING

** KOKERNAG TOURIST RESORT RECORDED 46.6MM RAINS AND THEN 38.22MM RAINFALL IN PAHALGAM,QAZIGUND

** ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN KYELONG,KALPA IN HIMACHAL ON 21ST OCT 2010 REACHES 30-40MM

A well set 110mph jet stream is digging (around 90kt wind speed) is bringing heavy rains and thunderstorms in Northern India especially Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

As seen from the GFS 200-300mb plot,the jet stream is digging in from NW Jammu and Kashmir and is having a Southerly flow. The morning satellite images are indicating high cloud cover in all areas along with -20 to -40C cloud top

temperatures!

Rains were already reported in Srinagar this morning and will continue for the entire day

Meanwhile, the maximum temperatures today are mostly going to be around 10C in high altitude regions like Srinagar and close to 5-8C in Leh. Minimum temperatures are definitely falling below 0C in Manali,Kargil,Leh,Baralacha pass which will definitely bring some snowfall today and tonight in these areas given the nice cool freezing environment.

The minimum temperatures in Leh are expected to near -10C and windchill of -15C!!!!!

Snowfall now will become very common in these areas. In Shimla,there are rains today and I expect snowflakes in Manali!

It was 4C at Srinagar at 8AM today !

Central India-

Temperatures (at minimum( in Central India will start falling to 18-17C in the next 3-4 days and this probably is the Winter onset!

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/106563/kashmir-valley-receives-seasons-first.html

For more official report on it

Strong Thunderstorm Hits Nagpur and surrounding areas.

Heavy rains grips Nagpur city as a Thunderstorm intensified from NW .As seen from this satellite imagery of 10AM (cloud top temp image. THE BOTTOM IMAGE) in the morning,convective clouds started building up due to CAPE and warm air rising caused by heating of the earth surface!

The Cumulonimbus clouds started growing and by 1500hrs produced lightning and rains in North-Central Maharashtra( AS SEEN FROM IMAGE ON THE TOP AFTER FEW HOURS)

In Nagpur, from 1430hrs, a cool outflow had started with occasional thunder from NW but by 1500hrs, clouds marched in the city and increased the wind speed and adding to wind gusts

As per a Meteorology report of 1600hrs(LT) in Nagpur, winds had reached 28km/hr an

d gusting to 46km/hr !!!!!!

Rains then followed and are continuing till now(time of this post)

RIGHT-

WUNDERGROUND.COM REPORT FROM NAGPUR AIRPORT FOR STATION 42866

THE STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO CAUSED A NICE ANTICLOCKWISE ROTATION OF CLOUDS AT 2000FT! LOOKING LIKE A DEVELOPING TORNADO BUT OFCOURSE ITS JUST A FUNNEL SHAPE BUT NOT A REAL ONE

CHECK THIS LINK TO FIND HOW IT WAS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5JapddDf5Y

The cloud top temperature at Nagpur was equal to the CTT of Tropical Storm GIRI

The heavy rains have dropped temperatures in Nagpur by atleast 3-4C.

For more updates on Nagpur weather (CHECK NAGPUR WEATHER UPDATE PAGE OF METD WEATHER)

Tropical Storm Giri targets Myanmar for a landfall

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The newly formed Tropical Storm Giri in the central Bay of Bengal has winds of 45kt (around 83.34km/hr) and air pressure around 990mb! On Multispectral and infrared satellite imagery,there is a nice developed low level circulation center with rainbands organizing briefly on the southern side and also on the rest sides. Sea Surface Temp continue to be very favorable for intensification with shears around 10kt ahead.

Based on all features

Giri will make a landfall between Sittwe and Kyaukpyu on 22nd Oct 2010,Thursday evening period. On the course, I expect GIRI to maintain its strength as a Tropical storm with more strengthening of winds today only. 10kt wind shear will act some problem in further intensification

Unexpected Tropical storm forms in Bay of Bengal

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras

As per JTWC,

Depression BOB 04 in Bay of Bengal has turned to a Tropical storm four!

I can't confirm it from my side without receiving any data

This one will make a landfall at Kyaukpyu,Myanmar on Fri,22nd Oct 2010

Typhoon Megi breaks many records and becomes 21st century most intense cyclone

The giant typhoon Megi has been the strongest cyclone of this year with minimum air pressure (from unconfirmed source ) near to 885mb! and maximum one minute sustained winds of 305km/hr

On Oct 17th 2010,Megi became first tropical cyclone to have min pressure below 900mb after Hurricane Wilma which was in 2005 and had pressure of 882mb which is the world record low pressure in the atlantic ocean!

1979 Typhoon Tip has the WORLD RECORD LOW PRESSURE OF 870MB!!!!!!!

It also became the first cyclone to have one min sustained winds of 305km/hr(190mph) in last 30 years. On Oct 18th, Megi had the third highest 10min recorded winds of 230km/hr.

Highest winds of 260km/hr (10min) were of 1982 Typhoon Bess and followed by 260km/hr winds from Typhoon tip of 1979...

In all the 21st century hurricanes, Megi has reached the first position as the 2005 Hurricane Katrina was weaker as compared to Megi!

Megi is also powerful than the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane $95 million damage to USA and 408-600 deaths!

Below is the list of Most Intense Typhoons in the Western North Pacific!

Typhoon	Year	Pressure
		hPa	inHg
1	Tip	1979	870	25.7
2	Nora	1973	875	25.8
	June	1975
4	Ida	1958	877	25.9
5	Kit	1966	880	26.0
	Rita	1978
	Vanessa	1984
8	Nina	1953	885	26.1
	Joan	1959
	Irma	1971
	Forrest	1983
	Megi	2010
13	Marge	1951	886
14	Ida	1954	890	26.3
	Nancy	1961
	Emma	1962
	Amy	1971
	Wynne	1980
	Betty	1987
	Flo	1990
21	Vera	1959	895	26.4
	Violet	1961
	Sally	1964
	Wilda	1964
	Elsie	1969
	Patsy	1973
	Louise	1976
	Elsie	1981
	Mac	1982
	Abby	1983
	Marge	1983
	Dot	1985
	Ruth	1991
	Yuri	1991
35	Tess	1953	900	26.6
	Pamela	1954
	Virginia	1957
	Hester	1957
	Lola	1957
	Opal	1962
	Karen	1962
	Sally	1964
	Opal	1964
	Bess	1965
	Carla	1967
	Agnes	1968
	Viola	1969
	Hope	1970
	Nina	1975
	Elsie	1975
	Hope	1979
	Bess	1982
	Peggy	1986
	Holly	1987
	Gay	1992
	Zeb	1998
Source:Typhoon information for the Western Pacific ocean[4] SOURCE-WIKIPEDIA