Extreme Weather Forecaster,
The satellite imagery of 0800UTC of the Cloud top temperature Over the
Arabian Sea is confirming that a strong convection has fired in the
very warm sea sector where the SST is peaking to 32C. As of now, This
convection is likely to become intense within 24hrs and favoured by a
LLC<low level Circulation> low Pressure of 1004mb in next 24hrs. The
thunderstorms will organize to a Tropical Depression as the surface
low gets more organised and also system sets due to a very warm SST,
Mid to low shears in the upper range, Strong Vorticity at Vertical
stage, Divergent Winds flow at 300mb level organizing a good outflow.
The best thing of the setup is that winds at mid and upper levels are
weak and they will not disturb the structure of this system. Since
last 72hrs, GFS models are becoming more favourable to conclude the
formation of a cyclone soon. GFS are not going to change drastically
at this stage.
The upper level winds with the mid levels drive the cyclone.A
northwards flow at mid and upper levels will turn this low pressure
towards north and high probability of LANDFALL in Pakistan or North
AS per 00z,GFS
This convection will organize within a surface low starting from 30th May.
A deep depression is likely to form on 31st May evening period.
This depression is likely to form a Cyclone mostly by June 1 or June 2 early.
It will continue to move Northwards with organising banding feature.
It will move near Mumbai <VERY FAR IN ARABIAN SEA> sometime 3rd June 2010.
It will cause rains along western coast from Wednesday, 2nd june onwards
It will be very severe by June 3-4.
METD WEATHER issues a MARK 4 alert in Southern Coast of Pakistan and
Mark 2 alert in North Western Gujarat. This system is most likely to
make a landfall at Pakistan southern coast
PROBABILITIES- AS PER 00Z,GFS
CHANCE OF TURNING TO A DEEP DEPRESSION IS MORE THAN 90%
CHANCE OF TURNING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS 90%
CHANCE OF TURNING TO A CYCLONE IS 90%
CHANCE OF TURNING TO A SEVERE CYCLONE IS 70%
Image attached is of the GFS surface pressure as on 3rd June 2010