Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,
A confirmed report has been made that Cyclone Laila has affected the
rate of Indian Monsoon as had been forecasted and predicted by METD
WEATHER. The south-west monsoon winds along with the moisture in the
Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea has become less affecting clouds
formation. The pressure setup is very similar to what happens during
JULY Monsoon season but the SW monsoon winds have considerably
weakened because Laila had used the moisture and as it was intense Low
pressure turning at Bay of bengal, diverted the Monsoon winds.
The GFS models are confirming that the action will likely hit back
very soon by fall of May. GFS low level winds are pretty impressive in
early June and ORGANIZING AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
BEING DEPICTED BY THE 00Z,25TH MAY MODEL FOR 3RD JUNE RUN. Strong
Convection, Negative spin at mid levels and a divergent flow aloft can
turn this low pressure patch to Intense one and probably turn to a
Tropical Depression if the Mid level winds stay calm. Right now, for
00z,2nd June,,, 20kt winds at the 300mb level to the West of low
pressure is being seen. This wind can disturb the composition of the
low pressure system.
If this setup organizes to a Tropical Depression or so, then the
advancement will be towards the North or North-East. This will rapidly
transport moisture across the Arabian Sea and will speed up the
monsoon winds but if it organizes, the low pressure will halt the
cloud formation and monsoon advancement to extraordinary a week or 2
weeks.
RIght now, Its clear the monsoon in Kerela will NOT strike in May.
If that low pressure organizes then Gujarat and interior Maharashtra
can witness rainfall.
REVISED DATES-
Monsoon striking India<kerala> - 5-10th June and more likely on 7th June 2010
Monsoon striking Maharashtra,Nagpur----- DELAY!!!
28th June or LATE***
*** depends on how the low pressure advances-
LOW PRESSURE Strength
Chance of formation of Low pressure offshore Kerala- 70-80%
Chance of formation of intense low pressure area- 60%
Chance of formation of Tropical depression - 40% or slightly above
Chance of formation of Tropical Cyclone - 30% or slightly less
ALL ABOVE PERCENTAGES ARE BASED ON GFS 00Z,27TH MAY RUNS
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