METD WEATHER,
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,
CONCERNING- NEW TRACK OF TC LAILA
IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED
The tropical cyclone 1B now named as Laila has strengthened since last night due to organising around mid level and low level circulation and is strengthning to CAT 1 by 1700hrs,19th MAY 2010
Present track of Laila as been detected on 0500hrs,19th may was 13.2N,83.3E about 190 km east-northeast of Chennai, 480 km west-southwest of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km southwest of Kolkata.
NCEP models with JTWC are indicating cyclone will intensify now onwards till tomorrow before it makes a landfall as CAT 1 with winds over 110km/hr
LANDFALL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LAILA AT MACHILIPATANAM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON 20TH MAY 2010,THURSDAY BETWEEN 04:30AM - 06:30AM.PEOPLE MUST TAKE SHELTER THIS NIGHT AND TAKE THE WARNINGS SERIOUSLY AS THIS CAN CLAIM A LIFT.HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA TILL THE CYCLONE EXITS TOTALLY.
VISHAKHAPATANAM IS OUT OF THE MAJOR ALERT AS CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND AND WILL LIKELY DAMAGE THERE. BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ON 20-21 MAY.
THE LATEST TRACK SHOWS CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER ORISSA AND BE A LOW DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT PASSES SOUTH KOLKATA ON 23RD MAY,0000HRS
People must listen to the alerts
Another tropical cyclone will form near African Coast in Arabian sea
the area of convection
previously located
near 11.0n 55.5e, is
now located
near 10.8n 55.1e,
approximately
110 nm southeast
of socotra island.
Animated infrared
satellite imagery
depicts a developing
low-level circulation
center (LLCC) with
deep convective
banding over the
southern semi-Circle
. An 181721z metop-a
image also indicates
a strengthening,
well-defined LLCC
with convective
banding wrapping
from the southwest
into the northwest
quadrant.
The 181721z
ascat ambiguity analysis
showed a small, tight
LLCC with 20-25 knot
winds near the center
and 30-35 knot winds
displaced along the
southwestern periphery
of the LLCC. Upper-level
analysis indicates
a more favorable
environment with
weak vertical wind
shear and diffluent flow
over the LLCC.
The system is expected to
continue developing,
aided by the enhanced
southwesterly surface flow
and improved northeasterly
flow over yemen. Maximum
sustained surface winds
are estimated at
25 to 30 knots.
Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated
to be near 1001 mb.
The potential for the
development of a
significant tropical
cyclone within the next
24 hours is upgraded to
good
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