METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,
Concerning- High risk for tornadoes in USA
A massive digging trough which is slowly progressing towards EAST is again going to set things worse today. FRI's risk was not so appreciatable esp for PDS in AR. 20 tornadoes were confirmed. ON SAT, strong lower level jets are expected to build during late afternoon in LA-AR-TN-KY area. This winds will transport moisture over southern states and will increase the dewpoints in LA-AR to more than 70F. Without CAPING, Convection is surely going to be intense amidst a strong more than 2000J/Kg CAPE over AR-LA and plenty good low level deep shears over 200m2 s2 to rotate storms. The main risk applies in areas in the vicinity of fronts. By 18z, a warm front is expected to set near OK-AR border which will race up storms in AR. With the cold front setting nr AR-TN border.
Tornadoes are mainly possible at two areas. One will be near AR-LA border where solid CAPE and shears are present leading to HIGH EHI or Ar-KY border where a cold front is setup with slight less CAPE and same shears.
I will like to play Arkansas and may move to LA where a stationed warm front will develope. The second best will be near the cold front.
YET, I AM EXPECTING INSANE DAY FOR THE PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS AND TN ESPECIALLY.
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