2010 INDIAN MONSOON TRACK

METD WEATHER,
AKSHAY DEORAS
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

2010 INDIAN MONSOON TRACK IS BEING RELEASED ON A STUDY OF PREVIOUS MONSOON RECORDS AND PRESENT NECESSARY CONDITIONS

Monsoon is a weather phenomena which forms a season in India. It is associated with rainfall conditions over most parts of India during June-September

CLIMATOLOGY
During summers most of areas of North India mainly Rajasthan,Thar Desert gets heated during summers. The warm air lifts up leaving down a surface low pressure. This low pressure develops over the land and high pressure over Arabian Sea. This causes warm moist air to move inwards towards land especially to upper Himalaya mountains. These mountains act as barrier and prevent the transportation of moisture towards north. This results in heavy rains over Central India

REQUIREMENTS
The most important requirement is a warm land caused due to extensive heating during summers
2010 has been a surprising year which actually is because the temperatures soared up in later March and April. Its 2 days in May but the temperatures are 3-7C BELOW NORMAL in most areas. This was due to a low pressure area over southern India which caused rains in many parts.
In my opinion, May will be WARM. The recent showers have disturbed the weather in NAGPUR.
Still the maximum temperatures are enough with a notable low pressure 1008mb. The Sea Surface Temp. over Arabian sea is 32C as recorded today.

METD WEATHER OUTLOOK
The 2010 MONSOON WILL BE ACTIVE IN NAGPUR IN __ JULY___ . I am expecting a handful of Tropical Cyclones Activity in MAY END. So far warm SST has been in Bay of bengal but a parameter termed as MJO or Madden Julian Oscialltion which is anomaly track of rainfalls which indicate chances of Cyclones is fair in APRIL. MJO in BAY OF BENGAL in APRIL 2009 was more than 1.5 this year it is less than 1.
this can be considered as It will be a SLOW and LATE start to Cyclones. WE have no cyclone of the year in bay. Destructive cyclones had hit a few years back in April- May
This is sure that cyclones will kick off in June with the first getting before June 15. This will disturb the Monsoon process. So I am expecting a kick off to monsoon in July.

METD TRACKS-
2010 MONSOON will be MORE ACTIVE IN AUG-SEPT. FOR JULY IT WILL BE DEFICIENT TO AS LARGE AS 50%. AS LAST YEAR IT RECOVERED, IT CAN THIS YEAR
BUT STILL ITS A NEG.track from my side

DATES-
MONSOON STRIKE IN MAHARASHTRA
NORMAL - 15TH JUNE.... 2010 - 1ST JULY***
KERELA - 1ST JUNE........ 2010- 15TH JUNE OR LATE
***-
LESS ACCURACY