Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Moderate Risk across Oklahoma

-Akshay Deoras

There is a MODERATE risk of Severe Weather much across OK

A classic upper level shortwave trough will be digging in forcing southeasterly wind flow adding to moisture over Oklahoma at upper levels at the 300mb level causing much moist atmosphere and very low LCL leading to low cloud bases and significant lifting due to CAPE over 2000J/Kg.
A very good LLJ of 30kt ejecting over Central OK will pull the moisture and cause 60F+ dewpoints.
A warm sector will develop in central OK in the vicinity of warm front across and cold front at Panhandle by 18z. Much convection and tornadoes will strike later afternoon to night hours. As the warm sector spreads, supercells will explode and cool air aloft will lead to large Hail drops and supreme tornadoes all the way mainly near South Central OK, South Western AR and Oklahoma Texas Border at Southern Side of Norman.

Conditions for Tornadoes are HIGH but not a HIGH RISK AS PER SPC.

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