Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,
AS of today,Friday heavy convective rains have been reported in Jammu
and Kashmir closing the Leh-Srinagar highway near Zojila pass. A
persistent western disturbance with a strong ingredients for
Thundershowers and HAILS in Srinagar was being looked up/
Srinagar, Sonamarg and Kargil have received HEAVY rains and will
continue till night. The precipitation models indicating that rainfall
will set near Kargil,Drass area tomorrow. I have received some
unconfirmed report that there were Hails in Srinagar during the event
at 2:30PM LT. I am myself travelling to Leh Ladakh via road journey
from Srinagar setting out on 31st May.
Right now, THE GFS has been consistent by showing heavy to moderate
rains in early june<upto 2nd week> in Central and Eastern Jammu and
Kashmir with few convective rains at times. METD WEATHER will be
updating from Jammu and Kashmir as we set there for holiday
Snowfall also was reported near Sonamarg of 2". No reports till now of
accumulations
Monsoon Track 2010
The monsoon seems to be setting in Kerala in 3-4 days BUT this is NOT
THE MONSOON.
The MODELS FROM GFS and ECMWF are indicating strong convection will
happen in Southern Arabian Ocean just few kilometers offshore Kerala.
This convection will become intense by June 2-3 as Massive SST over
30C, coupled by good CAPE, Moisture in mid levels and also NON
DISTURBING MID LEVEL winds will cause formation of Tropical Depression
and this Tropical depression will turn to a Cyclone due to a well
defined, Positive spin<cyclonic spin> Vorticity in mid levels,
Divergent wind flow aloft at 300mb, a well defined Low pressure at the
lower levels. Shears too look to be low to moderate for formation of
cyclone. This Possible Cyclone will move towards Coast of Oman just
like TC Gonu did in 2007. Landfall is most likely there.BUT THE UPPER
AND LOW LEVEL winds will turn this low pressure towards GUJARAT.
This year as METD WEATHER had told, Cyclones are going to be INSANE.
The NOAA announced that they are expecting Hyperactive Atlantic
Hurricane Season. WHOA! Calling it 85% more active than last year's
which was not that good. they too expect 3-7 Major Hurricanes and an
ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.
METD WEATHER ISSUES ALERT TO GULF OF OMEN,IRAN, GUJARAT NORTHERN PARTS
AND JAMMU AND KASHMIR AS IF THE MODELS SEEM TRUE, THIS WEAKENED SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP IN TOWARDS J&K CAUSING MASSIVE RAINFALL JUST AFTER I
DEPART.
DATES AND FIGURES OF MONSOON
MONSOON STRIKING KERALA- DATE IS SHIFTED
"" 3RD JUNE TO 7TH JUNE WITH HIGH CHANCE ON 4-5TH JUNE.
IMD WILL CALL MONSOON WITH SOME RAINS COMING BY MONTH END BUT THEY
WILL ORGANIZE TO FORM BANDING FEATURE.
THEN MONSOON WILL """"HALT"""" FOR 2 WEEKS OR MORE AFTER 7-8TH JUNE
AND MOSTLY INTERIOR MAHARASHTRA WILL REMAIN DRY. ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IF NO CYCLONE BUILDS AGAIN BY 25TH JUNE OR LATE.
MONSOON IN NAGPUR,INDIA
NOT EARLIER THAN JUNE 30. DATE IS NOW FOR 25TH JUNE WHICH CAN BE SHIFTED
OVERALL STRENGTH OF MONSOON WILL BE WEAK IN JUNE AS THE MADDEN JULLIAN
OSCILATION<MJO> IS WEAK IN JUNE. MONSOON WILL BE MORE ACTIVE FROM JULY
MID TO AUGUST
METD CALLS FOR A 65-75% NORMAL MONSOON THIS YEAR
SOME RELIEF DUE TO RAINS IS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN COAST OF INDIA IN
FIRST WEEK TO SECOND WEEK OF JUNE AND THEN IT REMAINS DRY
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