METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,
Concerning- SLIGHT RISK IN NRN USA
A unidirectional flow is moving EWDS across Northern STATES. By 12z, FRI Jets of 90kt aloft will flow across INDIANA,OHIO with a surface southerly LLJ of 40kt to pull the moisture from Southern Areas.A warm front at 12z in Indiana on Friday with a 1500-2000J/Kg cape and warm air near surface Cyclone will fire thunderstorms which will move NE towards OH with LI of -2 pretty low. CAPPING WIll not be a problem since air is pretty warm near SFC to mid levels. The main game will be late afternoon as the warm front digs in NEWDS and Storms race Eastwards. Moisture at OHIO and West PA will be good as being depicted by SKEW T with dewpoints to 60F at SFC. Also the supercells that can explode in OH-Indiana will be a LP supercells as PW is much high North in Michigan causing RAINS and possible hails during the event.
A lot of focus will be mainly in Eastern Indiana to NW PA as when CB clouds will build a LOW LCL will create them from 850mb. This is a sign of low cloud bases which can intensify and possibly turn to Meso. as SHEAR 0-1km are nice of 200m2 s2 with vertical veering winds. SPC focuses to 45% risk across OH,NE IN,NW PA with a likely 10% tornado risk and HIGH HAIL RISK with good SFC PRESSURE OF 1000mb.
Stay tuned for Updates, more possible SEVERE WEATHER days will kick off across SUN with the best turning on 10th May,MON.
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