Update on the LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING IN ARABIAN SEA on 30th May 2010

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

The satellite imagery of 0800UTC of the Cloud top temperature Over the
Arabian Sea is confirming that a strong convection has fired in the
very warm sea sector where the SST is peaking to 32C. As of now, This
convection is likely to become intense within 24hrs and favoured by a
LLC<low level Circulation> low Pressure of 1004mb in next 24hrs. The
thunderstorms will organize to a Tropical Depression as the surface
low gets more organised and also system sets due to a very warm SST,
Mid to low shears in the upper range, Strong Vorticity at Vertical
stage, Divergent Winds flow at 300mb level organizing a good outflow.
The best thing of the setup is that winds at mid and upper levels are
weak and they will not disturb the structure of this system. Since
last 72hrs, GFS models are becoming more favourable to conclude the
formation of a cyclone soon. GFS are not going to change drastically
at this stage.
The upper level winds with the mid levels drive the cyclone.A
northwards flow at mid and upper levels will turn this low pressure
towards north and high probability of LANDFALL in Pakistan or North
Western Gujarat

AS per 00z,GFS
This convection will organize within a surface low starting from 30th May.
A deep depression is likely to form on 31st May evening period.
This depression is likely to form a Cyclone mostly by June 1 or June 2 early.
It will continue to move Northwards with organising banding feature.
It will move near Mumbai <VERY FAR IN ARABIAN SEA> sometime 3rd June 2010.
It will cause rains along western coast from Wednesday, 2nd june onwards
It will be very severe by June 3-4.

METD WEATHER issues a MARK 4 alert in Southern Coast of Pakistan and
Mark 2 alert in North Western Gujarat. This system is most likely to
make a landfall at Pakistan southern coast

PROBABILITIES- AS PER 00Z,GFS
CHANCE OF TURNING TO A DEEP DEPRESSION IS MORE THAN 90%
CHANCE OF TURNING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS 90%
CHANCE OF TURNING TO A CYCLONE IS 90%
CHANCE OF TURNING TO A SEVERE CYCLONE IS 70%

STAY ALERT!
Image attached is of the GFS surface pressure as on 3rd June 2010

METD WEATHER'S SEVERE WEATHER RISK SCALE

I am glad to announce that I am introducing a Severe Weather Risk scale. This scale will be issued all the time whenever any alert,watches or updates are being made. This scale consists of Marks.

MARK 0. Mark 0 is a low threat level. This level means almost calm weather and no Special Activation of Alerting systems. THREAT LEVEL- Lowest.

MARK 1. Mark 1 is a low level threat but stands important in alerting people. It is the first step of Severe Weather. THREAT LEVEL is LOW

MARK 2. Mark 2 is Very important as it refers to IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED. I. e people must start preparing for the event coming. This scale doesn't deal with THREAT LEVEL
THREAT LEVEL IS 1 Slightly LOW

MARK 3. Mark 3 is a scale which means Moderate THREAT with IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED. Mark 3 alert means THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT from the Weather. THREAT LEVEL MODERATE

Mark 4. Mark 4 deals with INCREASED THREAT and VERY IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED and THIS LEVEL DOESN'T DEAL WITH LEVEL OF THREAT FROM SEVERE WEATHER.

MARK 5. is the HIGHEST,MOST DANGEROUS LEVEL. IT MEANS HIGH ALERT, HIGHLY DANGEROUS DAMAGE, VERY VERY IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED. THREAT LEVEL IS MAXIMUM

THESE LEVELS LEGENDARIES-
LEVEL URGENCY RAINCHANCE SEVERITY

MARK 0 - LESS RAINFALL WATCH LOWEST
MARK 1 - LITTLE RAINFALL ALERT LOW
MARK 2 - MODERATE THIS LEVEL IS ONLY FOR DISASTER PREPARDNESS
MARK 3 - URGENT MODERATE MODERATE
MARK 4 - VERY URGENT..THIS LEVEL IS ONLY FOR DISASTER PREPARDNESS
MARK 5 - V.VERY URGENT.. HIGH HIGHEST SEVERITY

SO THE MARK 2 AND 4 CAN BE ISSUED ANY TIME AND DEALS WITH DISASTER PREPARDNESS AND NOT WITH RISK OF EVENT. MARK 1,3,5 DEAL WITH RISKS FROM WEATHER.
MARK 0 IS MOSTLY FOR RAINFALL WATCHES IN INDIA


AKSHAY DEORAS
Severe Weather Forecaster,
METD WEATHER, INDIA
P- 09422313055

Heavy Rains pounding in Jammu and Kashmir, Monsoon Track,Possible Cyclone in Arabian Sea

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

AS of today,Friday heavy convective rains have been reported in Jammu
and Kashmir closing the Leh-Srinagar highway near Zojila pass. A
persistent western disturbance with a strong ingredients for
Thundershowers and HAILS in Srinagar was being looked up/
Srinagar, Sonamarg and Kargil have received HEAVY rains and will
continue till night. The precipitation models indicating that rainfall
will set near Kargil,Drass area tomorrow. I have received some
unconfirmed report that there were Hails in Srinagar during the event
at 2:30PM LT. I am myself travelling to Leh Ladakh via road journey
from Srinagar setting out on 31st May.
Right now, THE GFS has been consistent by showing heavy to moderate
rains in early june<upto 2nd week> in Central and Eastern Jammu and
Kashmir with few convective rains at times. METD WEATHER will be
updating from Jammu and Kashmir as we set there for holiday
Snowfall also was reported near Sonamarg of 2". No reports till now of
accumulations

Monsoon Track 2010
The monsoon seems to be setting in Kerala in 3-4 days BUT this is NOT
THE MONSOON.
The MODELS FROM GFS and ECMWF are indicating strong convection will
happen in Southern Arabian Ocean just few kilometers offshore Kerala.
This convection will become intense by June 2-3 as Massive SST over
30C, coupled by good CAPE, Moisture in mid levels and also NON
DISTURBING MID LEVEL winds will cause formation of Tropical Depression
and this Tropical depression will turn to a Cyclone due to a well
defined, Positive spin<cyclonic spin> Vorticity in mid levels,
Divergent wind flow aloft at 300mb, a well defined Low pressure at the
lower levels. Shears too look to be low to moderate for formation of
cyclone. This Possible Cyclone will move towards Coast of Oman just
like TC Gonu did in 2007. Landfall is most likely there.BUT THE UPPER
AND LOW LEVEL winds will turn this low pressure towards GUJARAT.
This year as METD WEATHER had told, Cyclones are going to be INSANE.
The NOAA announced that they are expecting Hyperactive Atlantic
Hurricane Season. WHOA! Calling it 85% more active than last year's
which was not that good. they too expect 3-7 Major Hurricanes and an
ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

METD WEATHER ISSUES ALERT TO GULF OF OMEN,IRAN, GUJARAT NORTHERN PARTS
AND JAMMU AND KASHMIR AS IF THE MODELS SEEM TRUE, THIS WEAKENED SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP IN TOWARDS J&K CAUSING MASSIVE RAINFALL JUST AFTER I
DEPART.

DATES AND FIGURES OF MONSOON
MONSOON STRIKING KERALA- DATE IS SHIFTED
"" 3RD JUNE TO 7TH JUNE WITH HIGH CHANCE ON 4-5TH JUNE.
IMD WILL CALL MONSOON WITH SOME RAINS COMING BY MONTH END BUT THEY
WILL ORGANIZE TO FORM BANDING FEATURE.

THEN MONSOON WILL """"HALT"""" FOR 2 WEEKS OR MORE AFTER 7-8TH JUNE
AND MOSTLY INTERIOR MAHARASHTRA WILL REMAIN DRY. ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IF NO CYCLONE BUILDS AGAIN BY 25TH JUNE OR LATE.

MONSOON IN NAGPUR,INDIA
NOT EARLIER THAN JUNE 30. DATE IS NOW FOR 25TH JUNE WHICH CAN BE SHIFTED
OVERALL STRENGTH OF MONSOON WILL BE WEAK IN JUNE AS THE MADDEN JULLIAN
OSCILATION<MJO> IS WEAK IN JUNE. MONSOON WILL BE MORE ACTIVE FROM JULY
MID TO AUGUST
METD CALLS FOR A 65-75% NORMAL MONSOON THIS YEAR

SOME RELIEF DUE TO RAINS IS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN COAST OF INDIA IN
FIRST WEEK TO SECOND WEEK OF JUNE AND THEN IT REMAINS DRY

Update on Track of 2010 Indian Monsoon and possible LOW PRESSURE IN ARABIAN SEA EARLY JUNE

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

A confirmed report has been made that Cyclone Laila has affected the
rate of Indian Monsoon as had been forecasted and predicted by METD
WEATHER. The south-west monsoon winds along with the moisture in the
Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea has become less affecting clouds
formation. The pressure setup is very similar to what happens during
JULY Monsoon season but the SW monsoon winds have considerably
weakened because Laila had used the moisture and as it was intense Low
pressure turning at Bay of bengal, diverted the Monsoon winds.

The GFS models are confirming that the action will likely hit back
very soon by fall of May. GFS low level winds are pretty impressive in
early June and ORGANIZING AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
BEING DEPICTED BY THE 00Z,25TH MAY MODEL FOR 3RD JUNE RUN. Strong
Convection, Negative spin at mid levels and a divergent flow aloft can
turn this low pressure patch to Intense one and probably turn to a
Tropical Depression if the Mid level winds stay calm. Right now, for
00z,2nd June,,, 20kt winds at the 300mb level to the West of low
pressure is being seen. This wind can disturb the composition of the
low pressure system.
If this setup organizes to a Tropical Depression or so, then the
advancement will be towards the North or North-East. This will rapidly
transport moisture across the Arabian Sea and will speed up the
monsoon winds but if it organizes, the low pressure will halt the
cloud formation and monsoon advancement to extraordinary a week or 2
weeks.
RIght now, Its clear the monsoon in Kerela will NOT strike in May.
If that low pressure organizes then Gujarat and interior Maharashtra
can witness rainfall.

REVISED DATES-
Monsoon striking India<kerala> - 5-10th June and more likely on 7th June 2010
Monsoon striking Maharashtra,Nagpur----- DELAY!!!
28th June or LATE***

*** depends on how the low pressure advances-
LOW PRESSURE Strength

Chance of formation of Low pressure offshore Kerala- 70-80%
Chance of formation of intense low pressure area- 60%
Chance of formation of Tropical depression - 40% or slightly above
Chance of formation of Tropical Cyclone - 30% or slightly less
ALL ABOVE PERCENTAGES ARE BASED ON GFS 00Z,27TH MAY RUNS

Update on Dates of Monsoon onset in India

I will Update on the 2010 Indian Monsoon Season dates on 27th May 2010 by 1500hrs--

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,METD WEATHER

MODERATE RISK OF STORMS IN USA AGAIN!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

A cut off trough with southerly jets of 100kt setting deep in NE COLORADO with an embeded SFC cyclone of 996mb across WEST South Dakota will favour for deep convection in a region with strong CAPE over 3000J/Kg. The classic 40kt LLJ will pump good moisture  in this sector causing dewpoints of more than 60F and nice vertical shears for rotations. The threat sets up for Moderate Risk across South Central ND, Much western SD,NW NE. 

Looking at the models, 

My Targets for severe tornado will be NE COLORADO TO SW KS for early period and moving northwards to North East SD

The HIGHEST temperature of Nagpur in 2010

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

24th May 2010, Monday was an historic day for weather. The maximum temperature recorded today was 47.3C or apx 117.14F. This temperature has been officially recorded and will surely make a Headline in tomorrow's<25th May's> newspapers. Severe Heat conditions are prevailing within the low pressure which has built up in the north-central India. 

This week will be insane for temperatures also with dry strong winds blowing across plains. It leads to a high feel temperature more than 50C

METD WEATHER issues a permanent weather alert till 1st June 2010 Evening. Alert will be for High temp with blowing winds all the time

Also the 2010 Indian Monsoon Track has been issued which will be emailed soon!

Part 2, Dates of 2010 Indian Monsoon season

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras,
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

The 2010 Indian Monsoon season seems to be AFFECTED by the Tropical Cyclone Laila as per METD WEATHER. Laila's unusual path inwards AP and again surging in Bay of Bengal has done two things. By this path, Laila didn't consume all the moisture in BOB but has partially consumed the moisture and by the progress Eastwards, Moisture at low levels to mid levels will drag East of BOB due to low pressure movement. As the low pressure is exiting in the BOB, the surface pressure over Mainland of INDIA ARE BECOMING DOMINANT AND WILL PULL THE MOISTURE FROM SOUTH-WESTERN TIP OF INDIA.
MEANWHILE, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA 1008mb IS SETTING UP TO THE VERY SOUTH OF KERALA WHICH IS GOING TO SUPPLY GOOD MOISTURE TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AREA.
THE JETS AT UPPER LEVELS HAVE A VERY GOOD EASTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOIST AIR INWARDS.

THE GFS,00Z MODELS FOR 850MB WINDS, ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOWING THAT THE MOISTURE IS BUILDING IN ARABIAN SEA AND ALSO OVER KERALA. THE MOISTURE PLOT FOR ARABIAN SEA IN NEXT WEEKS IS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER AND THE LLJ ARE SHIFTING TO SOUTH INDIA.
BASED ON THE PRESSURE AND MOISTURE MODELS, IT IS CLEAR THAT LAILA HAS AFFECTED THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN BOTH ARABIAN SEA AND BOB WHICH IS GOING TO DELAY THE START OF 2010 MONSOON SEASON. MOSTLY AFTER THE CYCLONE EXITS OR BECOMES WEAK, IT TAKES ABOUT 2 WEEKS OR MORE FOR MONSOON TO GET ACTIVATED THE CONVECTION .

II... 2010 CYCLONE SEASON AND ITS EFFECTS ON MONSOON
AS HAD MENTIONED EARLIER, THIS YEAR CYCLONES ARE GOING TO BE INSANE AS ITS A FALL YEAR FOR THE EL-NINO EVENT 2009-10. WARM WATERS SHIFT NOW WILL STOP TOWARDS COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA LEADING TO MUCH HIGH SST IN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WHICH CAN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONES AND MAKE THEM INSANE. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION IS ANOMALY RAINFALL TRACK WHICH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM EAST GIVES US ROUGH IDEA FOR INTENSITY OF CYCLONES. HIGH MJO INDEX CAN RESULT STRONG CONVECTION TURNING TO CYCLONES IF REST CONDITIONS MEET. SO FAR MJO HAS BEEN GOOD AND POSITIVE BUT IN MAY HAS
TURNED NEGATIVE. THIS CAN MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE NO CYCLONES TILL MID OR LATE JUNE IF MJO PROVES RIGHT. ITS FAVOURABLE FOR MONSOON BUILDING AND ADVANCING. ALSO, A NEGATIVE INDEX IS GOING WITH THE IDO
ITS SIMILAR TO EL~NINO AND LA~ NINA BUT OCCURING WITHIN INDIAN OCEAN. THIS PLOT IS NEGATIVE, IT MEANS THAT COOL WATER IS PRESENT IN WEST INDIAN OCEAN AS COMPARED TO EAST INDIAN OCEAN NEAR INDONESIA. A NEGATIVE PHASE STILL IN MAY CAN ADD TO LESS RAINS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS

BASED ON ALL PLOTS,
METD WEATHER THINKS THAT IF TROPICAL CYCLONES DON'T HOLD THAT GOOD IN MAY END TILL JUNE MID, A FAVOURABLE MONSOON WILL BUILD UP AND ADVANCE. HOWEVER IF ANY CYCLONE RE-STRIKES IN JUNE LATE, A STRONG DEFICIANCY WILL BE SEEN IN JULY.

METD WEATHER TARGETS-----

WITH 98% SUCCESS IN 2009 MONSOON FORECAST, METD WEATHER THINKS FOLL..

** MONSOON IN 2010 WILL BE 68-78% GOOD OUT OF 100%.
** MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE IN JULY END AND AUGUST IN MOST PARTS OF COUNTRY INCLUDING NAGPUR,MAHARASHTRA.

IF CYCLONES HOLD GOOD IN LATER JUNE, A STRONG DEFICIANT MONSOON IN JULY MONTH WILL BE SEEN IN INDIA

DATES***************

BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP MODELS, MJO INDEX,IDO INDEX,SST TEMP AND ALL LEVEL PLOTS

MONSOON TO HIT KERELA-

BETWEEN 5TH JUNE TO 10TH JUNE. MORE LIKELY BY 7TH JUNE 2010
REMAINING DATES CAN BE CALCULATED FROM GENERAL TREND OF ADVANCEMENT

MONSOON TO HIT NAGPUR,MAHARASHTRA
24-30TH JUNE 2010 AND MORE ACCURATE DAY CAN BE 26TH JUNE

THE INWARD PROPOGATION ON MONSOON WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CYCLONES AND DEPRESSIONS IN BOB AND ARABIAN.

DATES FOR MAHARASHTRA ARE LIKELY TO BE CHANGED AND I WILL UPDATE THEM DAILY STARTING FROM 10TH JUNE 2010 LIKE LAST YEAR,2009


FOR MORE ASSISTANCE CONTACT

AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER AND METD WEATHER OWNER
66,S.E.Rly Colony,Pratap Nagar,
Nagpur-22
Maharashtra,India

metdweather.blogspot.com
email- akshaydeoras@hotmail.com
twitter.com/akshaydeoras
facebook page for METD WEATHER

Moderate Risk across Oklahoma

-Akshay Deoras

There is a MODERATE risk of Severe Weather much across OK

A classic upper level shortwave trough will be digging in forcing southeasterly wind flow adding to moisture over Oklahoma at upper levels at the 300mb level causing much moist atmosphere and very low LCL leading to low cloud bases and significant lifting due to CAPE over 2000J/Kg.

A very good LLJ of 30kt ejecting over Central OK will pull the moisture and cause 60F+ dewpoints.

A warm sector will develop in central OK in the vicinity of warm front across and cold front at Panhandle by 18z. Much convection and tornadoes will strike later afternoon to night hours. As the warm sector spreads, supercells will explode and cool air aloft will lead to large Hail drops and supreme tornadoes all the way mainly near South Central OK, South Western AR and Oklahoma Texas Border at Southern Side of Norman.

Conditions for Tornadoes are HIGH but not a HIGH RISK AS PER SPC.

TC LAILA HEADING TO INDIA

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

CONCERNING- NEW TRACK OF TC LAILA

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED

The tropical cyclone 1B now named as Laila has strengthened since last night due to organising around mid level and low level circulation and is strengthning to CAT 1 by 1700hrs,19th MAY 2010

Present track of Laila as been detected on 0500hrs,19th may was 13.2N,83.3E about 190 km east-northeast of Chennai, 480 km west-southwest of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km southwest of Kolkata.

NCEP models with JTWC are indicating cyclone will intensify now onwards till tomorrow before it makes a landfall as CAT 1 with winds over 110km/hr

LANDFALL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LAILA AT MACHILIPATANAM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON 20TH MAY 2010,THURSDAY BETWEEN 04:30AM - 06:30AM.PEOPLE MUST TAKE SHELTER THIS NIGHT AND TAKE THE WARNINGS SERIOUSLY AS THIS CAN CLAIM A LIFT.HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA TILL THE CYCLONE EXITS TOTALLY.

VISHAKHAPATANAM IS OUT OF THE MAJOR ALERT AS CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND AND WILL LIKELY DAMAGE THERE. BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ON 20-21 MAY.

THE LATEST TRACK SHOWS CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER ORISSA AND BE A LOW DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT PASSES SOUTH KOLKATA ON 23RD MAY,0000HRS

People must listen to the alerts

Another tropical cyclone will form near African Coast in Arabian sea

the area of convection

 previously located 

near 11.0n 55.5e, is

 now located 

near 10.8n 55.1e,

 approximately 

110 nm southeast 

of socotra island.

 Animated infrared

 satellite imagery

 depicts a developing 

low-level circulation

 center (LLCC) with 

deep convective 

banding over the 

southern semi-Circle

. An 181721z metop-a 

image also indicates

 a strengthening,

 well-defined LLCC

 with convective

 banding wrapping

 from the southwest

 into the northwest

 quadrant. 

The 181721z

 ascat ambiguity analysis

 showed a small, tight

 LLCC with 20-25 knot 

winds near the center

 and 30-35 knot winds

 displaced along the

 southwestern periphery 

of the LLCC. Upper-level

 analysis indicates 

a more favorable

 environment with

 weak vertical wind

 shear and diffluent flow 

over the LLCC. 

The system is expected to

 continue developing, 

aided by the enhanced 

southwesterly surface flow

 and improved northeasterly

 flow over yemen. Maximum

 sustained surface winds

 are estimated at 

25 to 30 knots.

 Minimum sea level 

pressure is estimated

 to be near 1001 mb.

 The potential for the

 development of a

 significant tropical 

cyclone within the next 

24 hours is upgraded to

 good

TROPICAL CYCLONE 1B FORMS IN BAY OF BENGAL

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Tropical cyclone in Bay of Bengal

The 2010 North Indian ocean cyclone season has opened with a bang. Since the last week some convection happening in the SE bay of Bengal which initially was favoured of development of Low level circulation near Andaman Nicobar Islands. The convection in strong Sea Surface Temp. with low to moderate vertical shear, strong upward vorticity, situated in a divergent wind flow resulting to easy outflow, also limited horizontal wind across the region, has resulted this system to intensify to the first cyclone of this year in Bay of Bengal

As per the datas from NCEP, the following track of cyclone is possible

DATE/TIME(UTC)	POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)	SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
17-05-2010/1200	11.0/88.0	55-65 GUSTING TO 75
17-05-2010/1800	11.5/87.5	55-65 GUSTING TO 75
18-05-2010/0000	12.0/87.0	65-75 GUSTING TO 85
18-05-2010/0600	12.5/86.5	65-75 GUSTING TO 85
18-05-2010/1200	13.0/86.0	75-85 GUSTING TO 95
19-05-2010/0000	14.0/85.0	75-85 GUSTING TO 95
19-05-2010/1200	15.0/84.0	85-95 GUSTING TO 105
20-05-2010/0000	16.0/83.0	95-105 GUSTING TO 115
20-05-.2009/1200	17.0/82.0	95-105 GUSTING TO 115

THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS APX. 100KM EAST OF CHENNAI 12PM ON 19TH MAY AND WILL LIKELY DAMAGE INSIDE IN TAMIL NADU AND ANDHRA PRADESH AND CAUSE HIGH SURFS AND ROUGH SEAS SO FISHERMAN ARE REQUESTED NOT TO VENTURE OUT IN SEA. THIS WILL THEN MOVE AND MAKE A LANDFALL PARTIAL ABOUT 80KM EAST OF KALIPATANAM. AT 1800HRS ON 20TH MAY AND THEN ON 21ST MAY AT 1800HRS,IT WILL MAKE A LANDFALL AT VISHAKHAPATANAM WITH A VERY STRONG 63KT+ GUSTS AND AS CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE, THE MAXIMUM

ON 22ND MAY IT WILL MOVE TO ORISSA AT RATANPUR,JAMBU IN ORISSA GUSTING TO 81MPH WINDS.

THE PRESENT ALERT IS FOR ROUGH SEAS IN ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU ON 19TH MAY. THE ALERT IS VISHAKHAPATANAM FOR A LANDFALL ON 21ST MAY 2010

SLIGHT RISK in Southern Plains and Mid atlantic region

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

The stagnant trough will cause another round of storms in USA after causing 37 tornadoes on 10th May.

Along with the surface low, LLJ will eject across the warm sector backed with an approaching cold front by late afternoon to evening. The atmosphere will mostly remained CAPPED till late afternoon inhibiting convection. Classic 45kt LLJ will rapidly transport moisture if the surface winds remained away from Kansas area. Severe convection will happen into evening hours amidst a strong CAPE of 4000J/Kg leading to extreme updrafts and supportive to Very Large hails due to cool air aloft. But there is some problem with shears. The shears are not that strong for causing Severe tornadoes but 200 m2 s2 for some will rotate supercells. The HP cells are likely. The SKEW T is depicting a Low LCL and a 1.28PW right now.

By evening there will be a little cap which can be a cause of concern as it may reduce the severity of storms. Though this event can be good for tornadoes especially in Eastern Kansas than Oklahoma. SPC is getting a 10% for Tornadoes across Extreme Northern Ok,Eastern KS,NW MO

I expect tornadoes SE KS in the vicinity of cold front. The cold front will be the KEY for tornadoes

WEATHER ALARM FOR NAGPUR

METD WEATHER,
AKSHAY DEORAS
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

CONCERNING- VERY HOT WEEK IN NAGPUR

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED

This week seems to make a record with reference to temperature in
Nagpur. As was being expected by me, This years maximum touched 46.3C
today<12th May>.
The coming week is going to be hot due to no cloud cover, no strong
cool air pumping from north, no rain.
METD WEATHER,INDIA IS ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER ALERT FROM 10AM,13TH
MAY 2010 TO 20TH MAY 2010.
EVERYDAY;S TEMP WILL BE MORE THAN 45.5C AND AS HIGH NEAR 47C THOUGH I
AM NOT THAT CONFIDENT WITH 47C. STABLE TEMP OF 46 IS DUE FOR THE WEEK

PLEASE DONT TAKE ALL MY WORDS AND WARNINGS LIGHTLY. THIS HEAT IS
SEVERE AND CAN TAKE ANYONE'S LIFE. A NEW RECORD ALSO POSSIBLE

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION IN OK AND KS

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS

Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning- a HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER with Greatest tornado potentials

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED

All weather models and patterns in the RUC 16Z are suggesting some outrageous Tornadoes

A classic Cut off trough will spin nosing NE WDS over Central Kansas and Oklahoma causing a very active atmosphere for convection. The strong Low level jets will develop to 50kt transporting ample moist air mass into Oklahoma, Kansas and MO. 

By 8z, CAPE FOR CENTRAL Ok will be 6000J/Kg meaning supercells will release many tornadoes as they will be overloaded with CAPE. The supercells will rotate extremely due to 450 m2 s2 low level shears at 0-1km and excellent directional shears. The PW is above 1.0 meaning HP supercells with possibly DAMAGING HAILS AND EXTREMELY BAD LONG TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE. the EHI are rising to 10.0 in Central OK and extremely bad, 

THIS SITUATION CAN BE LIKE 1999 TORNADO OUTBREAK

I WILL WARN PEOPLE ALL OVER IN OKLAHOMA,EXCEPT SW OK... SE KS,NW MO,EXTREME EAST AR

I WILL PLAY INITIAL TARGET OF WICHITA,KS

MY SEVERE WEATHER RANGE IS FROM WICHITA,KS TO EXTREME SE OF OK

MY TORNADO RANGE IS TARGETED FOR CENTRAL OK TO WICHITA,KS

NIGHT TORNADOES ARE LIKELY AND RAIN WRAPPED. THEY ARE DANGEROUS

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z        ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH    CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON AND    EVENING...        ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK IN    KS...OK...SW MO...AND NW AR...        ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NW TX TO THE    CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...    

I will warn 

Severe Weather to happen in Tornado Alley on Monday

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras,
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- MODERATE WEATHER RISK
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NCNTRL/NE OK...SCNTRL/SE
KS AND EXTREME SW MO...

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO    THE MID-MS VLY...

The 00z+48hr NAM range are indicating a classic trough digging in the southern plains. Setup at the 300mb indicates 90kt westerly flow with embeded SFC LOW PRESSURE OF 1000mb coupled by southerly winds of impressive 40kt at OK-Ks border and 50kt at OK-TX border at the lower levels. Much moisture for convection will be transported in the interior resulting 60F+ dewpoint.During the morning hours, A lot of CIN or Convective inhibition will be present over the tornado alley. a strong CIN over -200 will inhibit convection as the NAM indicates.
The morning setup indicates thunderstorm formation in Southern Oklahoma to Central TEXAS. The Lifted index values are -5. yet strong CAP at hold will inhibit convection if it doesn't bust away on Monday plots.
Much later, in afternoon to evening convection will start by firing some intense thunderstorm as CAP reduces and becomes borderline in the vicinity of warm front. A strong CAPE over 3000J/Kg will destabilise the environment and lead to intense updrafts and possibly severe hails when thunderstorms fire. The Lifted condensation level will be at 850mb and less leading to low cloud bases. Upper level CAPE will lead to strong convection and rotations in Oklahoma to Kansas as the low level shears are over 200 m2 s2 round the event with stronger SHEARS is Kansas.The moderate risk deals with the 60kt LLJ in MO-KS border
The EHI values are over 3.0 in the 0-1km range and solid of 6.0 in 0-3km range from Central Tx to central KS. The supercells will be a LP to HP in diff. areas
Tornado probability will be high in Oklahoma and Kansas border and Western Oklahoma for the borderline CAP.
If CAP BUSTS AWAY, This event will be HISTORIC for Severe Hails and weather in Oklahoma and Kansas. For now, I will be with Kansas

A possible TORNADO DAY IN NORTHERN USA

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- SLIGHT RISK IN NRN USA

A unidirectional flow is moving EWDS across Northern STATES. By 12z, FRI Jets of 90kt aloft will flow across INDIANA,OHIO with a surface southerly LLJ of 40kt to pull the moisture from Southern Areas.A warm front at 12z in Indiana on Friday with a 1500-2000J/Kg cape and warm air near surface Cyclone will fire thunderstorms which will move NE towards OH with LI of -2 pretty low. CAPPING WIll not be a problem since air is pretty warm near SFC to mid levels. The main game will be late afternoon as the warm front digs in NEWDS and Storms race Eastwards. Moisture at OHIO and West PA will be good as being depicted by SKEW T with dewpoints to 60F at SFC. Also the supercells that can explode in OH-Indiana will be a LP supercells as PW is much high North in Michigan causing RAINS and possible hails during the event.
A lot of focus will be mainly in Eastern Indiana to NW PA as when CB clouds will build a LOW LCL will create them from 850mb. This is a sign of low cloud bases which can intensify and possibly turn to Meso. as SHEAR 0-1km are nice of 200m2 s2 with vertical veering winds. SPC focuses to 45% risk across OH,NE IN,NW PA with a likely 10% tornado risk and HIGH HAIL RISK with good SFC PRESSURE OF 1000mb.
Stay tuned for Updates, more possible SEVERE WEATHER days will kick off across SUN with the best turning on 10th May,MON.

2010 INDIAN MONSOON TRACK

METD WEATHER,
AKSHAY DEORAS
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

2010 INDIAN MONSOON TRACK IS BEING RELEASED ON A STUDY OF PREVIOUS MONSOON RECORDS AND PRESENT NECESSARY CONDITIONS

Monsoon is a weather phenomena which forms a season in India. It is associated with rainfall conditions over most parts of India during June-September

CLIMATOLOGY
During summers most of areas of North India mainly Rajasthan,Thar Desert gets heated during summers. The warm air lifts up leaving down a surface low pressure. This low pressure develops over the land and high pressure over Arabian Sea. This causes warm moist air to move inwards towards land especially to upper Himalaya mountains. These mountains act as barrier and prevent the transportation of moisture towards north. This results in heavy rains over Central India

REQUIREMENTS
The most important requirement is a warm land caused due to extensive heating during summers
2010 has been a surprising year which actually is because the temperatures soared up in later March and April. Its 2 days in May but the temperatures are 3-7C BELOW NORMAL in most areas. This was due to a low pressure area over southern India which caused rains in many parts.
In my opinion, May will be WARM. The recent showers have disturbed the weather in NAGPUR.
Still the maximum temperatures are enough with a notable low pressure 1008mb. The Sea Surface Temp. over Arabian sea is 32C as recorded today.

METD WEATHER OUTLOOK
The 2010 MONSOON WILL BE ACTIVE IN NAGPUR IN __ JULY___ . I am expecting a handful of Tropical Cyclones Activity in MAY END. So far warm SST has been in Bay of bengal but a parameter termed as MJO or Madden Julian Oscialltion which is anomaly track of rainfalls which indicate chances of Cyclones is fair in APRIL. MJO in BAY OF BENGAL in APRIL 2009 was more than 1.5 this year it is less than 1.
this can be considered as It will be a SLOW and LATE start to Cyclones. WE have no cyclone of the year in bay. Destructive cyclones had hit a few years back in April- May
This is sure that cyclones will kick off in June with the first getting before June 15. This will disturb the Monsoon process. So I am expecting a kick off to monsoon in July.

METD TRACKS-
2010 MONSOON will be MORE ACTIVE IN AUG-SEPT. FOR JULY IT WILL BE DEFICIENT TO AS LARGE AS 50%. AS LAST YEAR IT RECOVERED, IT CAN THIS YEAR
BUT STILL ITS A NEG.track from my side

DATES-
MONSOON STRIKE IN MAHARASHTRA
NORMAL - 15TH JUNE.... 2010 - 1ST JULY***
KERELA - 1ST JUNE........ 2010- 15TH JUNE OR LATE
***-
LESS ACCURACY

HIGH RISK FOR TORNADOES IN AR-MS-KY

METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- High risk for tornadoes in USA

A massive digging trough which is slowly progressing towards EAST is again going to set things worse today. FRI's risk was not so appreciatable esp for PDS in AR. 20 tornadoes were confirmed. ON SAT, strong lower level jets are expected to build during late afternoon in LA-AR-TN-KY area. This winds will transport moisture over southern states and will increase the dewpoints in LA-AR to more than 70F. Without CAPING, Convection is surely going to be intense amidst a strong more than 2000J/Kg CAPE over AR-LA and plenty good low level deep shears over 200m2 s2 to rotate storms. The main risk applies in areas in the vicinity of fronts. By 18z, a warm front is expected to set near OK-AR border which will race up storms in AR. With the cold front setting nr AR-TN border.
Tornadoes are mainly possible at two areas. One will be near AR-LA border where solid CAPE and shears are present leading to HIGH EHI or Ar-KY border where a cold front is setup with slight less CAPE and same shears.
I will like to play Arkansas and may move to LA where a stationed warm front will develope. The second best will be near the cold front.
YET, I AM EXPECTING INSANE DAY FOR THE PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS AND TN ESPECIALLY.