Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Severe Thunderstorms expected in IA-NE border and Central KS TO NW OK

Akshay Deoras,
Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Possible severe weather in IOWA-NE border on Thursday late late evening to night and CENTRAL KS TO NW OK

With Reference to 18z RUN,31st March 2010
NAM MODELS HAVE FINALLY AGREED WITH GFS FOR THE 33-39Z EVENT. For 2z-23z, the upper level trough becomes amplified gaining upper jets of 100kt over the WESTERN states. The trough with max of 120kt will sweep over West of KS. At the SFC level, a band of 40-50-60kt low level jets will move below the trough. The best one 60kt sets EWDS the instability @ CAPE of 1000J/kg and the low level shear of 200m2 s2+' The moisture is expected to make it to 60F dewpoints in the WRN OK TO CENT KS and very rich of 60F across IA and WEST of it at the IA-NE border. Convection is likely to happen over IA border and OK NW. LI for NW OK IS -4 which is high than IA. Strong inst means strong updraft which can increase the risk of severe hails. But for all the places abv, the 700mb temp is abv 0C which means the setup will contain convective rain instead of hails and also warm till the SFC with the winds upto 20kt.
Deep convection occurence might be interfered with the polar winds coming from CANADA but I dont think it will happen. Warm front during the day to support convection will be sufficient. Speaking for Tornadoes, Torn are possible esp. NW OK TO CENT KS where the inst will be overhead with sfc EHI above 3.0. For IA and NE_IA border, the 12Z RUN were good but now not so strong.
For Friday too, Severe weather is expected from SOUTH-EAST OK TO TX E and later into MS valley.
Stay tuned for the updates!!!!!!!

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