Thursday, March 4, 2010

Moderate severe possible in USA during 7-8th march

METD Weather

Concerning for thunderstorms in some parts of USA

Seeing the models it is looking like the tornado alley of USA is getting back into action slowly by following a very slow path. The 90hr GFS is showing the arrival of one 120kt jet upper level system into states of southern USA like Texas. The winter is still prevalent in many parts and there were zero tornado reports in Feb 2010 which is a history. Meanwhile there were many sayings that this season is late. But it doesnt' seem so. I had been seeing for this model throughout the runs from 1st March with an expectation of producing something in the southern states. A bet is also on between me and John Hallen Of SWS regarding this system .JH seems to be favouring for Kansas and hopes there will be a cold core storm in kansas where the thermodynamics are negative with low dewpoints,low moisture. The best one has to be texas southern and western part. The 90hr GFS has been consistent right from 140hr GFS from the model runs from 1st march

Coming to this system--
The main upper level trough is slowing progressing with a little delay. It seems its going to show the best on Monday afternoon. At the surface level,there are 40-30kt jets near and around central texas with some over the mexican border in areas of Del Rio. in these areas the dewpoints are fair but better than the northern part. The DP is 60F and the main problem goes with the instability. the instability is marginal 750J/kg for texas. this will restrict the strengthning of the thunderstorm. There is limited moisture at the surface and more I can say is restricted to some parts like souther tx.nm border and then later spreads towards east parts and North-eastern Tx.

Still looking at strong cold air advection at 700-500 Mb in the TX panhandle w/divergent flow. This is little negative but the conditions are expected to be a bit ok on monday.

THE Lift index values are -4 showing strong possibility of thunderstorms in the central part of texas.
The LLJ will move towards north eastern texas and thus there will be two system outbreak
I will however support the one over texas and mexican border near the areas of Del Rio as this will be better than the one over Texas and Oklahoma border.
The conditions will be clear tomorrow as the new model runs come in.
SUpport my team TX

I shall not be able to upgrade further due to some busy schedule in the coming week
So please turn on ur radios and check other websites for details


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