Extreme Weather Forecaster
concerning- Risk of some storms in southern plains of region of TX-OK
The 18UTC,24th March RUN runs are suggesting of trough in the upper level across TX.
The trough right now seems to be stretched over TX with the upper level 100kt with the SLP of 1012mb right now turning to 1008mb low over Central TX,OK,SE KS within a period of 2hrs. For parts of TX during the afternoon hours,the surface temp is 60F which is sufficient for destabilising the atmosphere leading to more CAPE values. Right now, a cold front is sweeping through TX which is followed by the thunderstorms. The Gulf of Mexico near the USA southern COast has relatively less temp. at this time than required. This will limit the moisture and with no Low level jets over OK,TX the threat for severe weather decreases. Some instability will develop some storms and few of them will be capable of dropping LARGE hails due to cold temperatures aloft esp in NCENTRAL TO North-east TX to SE of OK. SPC gives a 15% risk of HAILS.Without the lows at surface, it will be difficult for rapid changes in wind speed and direction creating shears at the surface 0-1km level which will reduce the risk of tornadoes and strong winds.
For LAte AFTERNOON TO EVN,instability will rise in SE OK and some weak shears too will develope which will give marginal risk for tornadoes of 2%.
In all, The main pattern of this storm in OK AnD TX will be mainly not too severe but little creating 1" hails by late after to evn. The vertically lined storms
Thursday it is expected that there will be some tornadoes for MS,LA and other regions. Stay tuned for the next post!!
My laptop was badly crashed, so its too late to write.