Concerning- Rainfall alert #05 for Nagpur
The summer has already kicked off in the Indian plains and the temperatures have exceeded 35Deg Celcius.The weather models have been consistent with the chance of rainfall and isolated thunderstorms over central India. A low pressure zone in Bay Of Bengal is expected to move northwards weakening towards bangladesh. This LW will pump some cut off troughs towards Center and those will be the Neg.Vorticities. This means it will cause T.storm.
For Nagpur, On 10th March,Wed. The day will be very hot. There is a strong chance of isolated T.storm at night and its going to be like the lasts mondays thing.
The day's heat will build the clouds and will strengthen them to T.storms by Late afternoon to Midnight. The instability is overhead and the lift index are less than -2.
If the day heats up sufficiently, the atmosphere will destabilize and might generate Hails or GARA by Evening. The rains will start by late evening or probably 5pm and will continue till night. Total amounts will be 1-2mm
On 12th march 2010, there is some RH present in the upper levels of atmosphere. The models are indicating rainfall right from the morning with a chance of thunderstorm
I will verify the 12th march models later but remember tomorrow Evening and night will be cool.
For me,I am expecting Hails in Nagpur which might fall tomorrow and better chance is on 12th march.
Extreme Weather Forecaster,Metd Weather