Mixed Weather to happen in southern plains of USA on 20th March

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

CONCERNING- MIXED ROUND OF WEATHER IN USA.

IN USA,THIS YEAR, ONLY 56 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED OUT OF WHICH 41 IN JAN,1 IN FEB AND 14 IN MARCH.

12z,18th march run
THE GFS 12Z RUN FOR 60HR INDICATING A CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER SOUTHER PLAINS WITH THE MAX SPEED OF 100KT AT THE 300MB LEVEL. THE TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER SRN TX PEEPING IN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE LEVEL MAP SHOWS 50KT JETS OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER LLJ 45KT AND 50KT OVER OK AND TX-NM BORDER. THE CONCERNING ONE IS THE LLJ OVER OK
THE SURFACE SLP MAP IS SHOWING LOW CENTERED SWWRDS OK AND THE AIR TEMP MAP IS SHOWING COOL AIR MASS ALL OVER IN OK. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE COLD FRONT COMING IN DUE TO THIS LOW. GENERALLY THE CFRONT APPEARS TO THE WEST OF LOW COMING FROM N-NW WRDS.
THIS COLD FRONT IS GOING TO DECREASE THE DAY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY FOR OKLAHOMA CONSIDERABLY. AT PRESENT SURFACE TEMP OF NORMAN,OK IS 17C WHICH WILL DROP TO THE FREEZING POINT ON SAT.THE AIR TOO IS SATURATED WITH WATER VAPOUR WITH RH 90%. THE SKEW-T FOR NORMAN SHOWS TEMP OF 0C AT THE 900MB BUT WILL RISE TO POSITIVE UPTO 700MB. THIS TEMP HAS TO BE 0C. SO PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE SNOW AS THE AIR TEMP AT 900MB WILL BE 0 WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE 4C.
AS THERE IS AN OVERHEAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LLJ AT THE SURFACE,HIGH WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 20KT OR 35KM+ ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WHICH MIGHT GIVE THE EFFECT OF A WINTER STORM AS THE ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION SHOWING MODERATE SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE OK IS EXPECTED TO BATTER UP WITH SNOW DURING AFTERNOON TO NIGHT HRS WITH INCREASING WIND GUSTS AS THE LLJ AMPLIFIES, 50KT LLJ WILL CREATE THUNDERSTORMS IN MS RIVER VALLEY REGION TO THE COASTAL AREAS. CHANCE OF TSTORMS NEAR MS LIKE LOUISIANA IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT. FOR MS VALLEY,THE AIR TEMP FOR THE SURFACE TILL THE MIDDLE LEVEL IS GOING TO BE AROUND 16C OR 61F. THE DEWPOINT WILL BE AROUND 60F. THE INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER LATE AFTERNOON WITH FIRING OF T.STORM AROUND THIS TIME. SPEAKING FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE.TORNADOES TOO ARE POSSIBLE. THE INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE AROUND 750J/KG WHICH MAY RISE TO 800+ DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THE COLD FRONT SHALL NOT BECOME A BARRIER FOR JACKSON,MS AND LOUISIANA AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AWAY FROM THESE AREAS. WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODERATE 21KM WIND HERE IN MS.THE VORTICITY MODEL SHOWING AIR SPIN IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE V.VORT IS SIGNIFICANT. THE EHI MODELS CANT BE DETERMINED ACCURATELY NOW.
THE COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND HIGHLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DECREASING DAY/NIGHT TEMP. I LAUGH WHEN I SEE THE TEMP AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR DODGE CITY,KS WHICH WAS JOHN HALLEN'S PLACE OF BET FOR TORNADOES DURING LAST MARCH 2010 OUTBREAK WHICH REPORTED 2 TORN AT OK. D.CITY WILL GET SNOWFALL!!!!

FOR MS AND JACKSON AS SOON AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES E WRDS,COLD FRONT WILL DROP NIGHT TEMP TO 1C ON SAT NIGHT.RAINS WILL STAY AFTER STORM PASSES

FOR T STORM CONDITION ON SAT 20TH MAR
THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE CONDITIONS AND SHOW SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF TSTORM IN MS. SO SPC HAS ISSUED 15% RISK FOR LOUISIANA AND MS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE AGAINST IT BUT I WILL STICK TO THE ECMWF.
MORE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATER AS THE NEW RUNS COME!
* THE FRIDAY OUTLOOK OF SPC WILL BE TRANSLATED BY ME TONIGHT