Akshay Deoras
Lead Weather Forecaster-
Concerning- Slight severe Weather In USA on thursday,friday
I have no time for updating my writing so its review from SPC
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LWR MO VLY WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL U.S THIS PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER AZ/NM CONTINUES E/SE TO S TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL JET ALSO WILL PERSIST FROM S TX ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NRN FL. AT THE SFC...IA LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE UPR MS VLY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT DECELERATES OVER LWR PORTIONS OF THE OH...TN...AND MS VLYS. A SECONDARY LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE LWR MS VLY LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF AZ/NM UPR IMPULSE. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK WAVE ON W/E STNRY FRONT JUST S OF THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD TRACK E ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN FL TO THE GA CSTL WATERS BY EVE. ...FL AND SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES TODAY/TONIGHT... 40+ KT SWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE AND BENEATH EXIT REGION OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE NERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AND PW AOA 1.50 IN/ TO OVERSPREAD NRN AND CNTRL FL S OF STALLED W/E FRONT/RAIN-REINFORCED BOUNDARY. WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUDS WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT SBCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE SWD INTO THE NERN GULF EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM S AND E OF THE MCS IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING OF MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA. DESPITE MODEST CAPE...GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND DEGREE OF BOTH LOW-LVL AND DEEP SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS. THESE MAY PRODUCE BOTH TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LARGE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN. WHILE THE SVR THREAT MAY DIMINISH THIS EVE...THE THREAT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS THE LLJ REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE. ...MID MS/LWR OH VLYS THIS AFTN... LOBE OF ASCENT ROTATING AROUND MO VLY CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE IL AREA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...ATOP NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LVL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR 50S F AND PW AROUND 1 IN/. SFC HEATING IN ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MAY BOOST SBCAPE TO AROUND 750 J/KG GIVEN COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES. SETUP MAY SUPPORT EARLY AFTN DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW OVER E CNTRL MO AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES E OF THE MS RVR. HOWEVER...12Z SGF RAOB AND SOME MODEL THERMAL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A WARM LAYER MIGHT MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND THE 700 MB LVL THAT COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. AT ANY RATE...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ONE OR TWO BANDS OF STRONG STORMS MAY FORM IF WARM LAYER IS BREACHED. THESE COULD YIELD HAIL AND PERHAPS A SPINUP-TYPE TORNADO OR TWO. ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD END LATER IN THE DAY. ...LWR MS AND TN VLYS LATE... TRAILING PORTION OF STALLING COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS ASCENT WITH AZ/NM UPR IMPULSE OVERTAKES MOIST AXIS LIKELY TO REMAIN PRESENT E OF THE MS RVR. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR...STORMS MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DMGG WIND AS THEY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS.
No comments:
Post a Comment