Friday, April 2, 2010

Friday weather update

Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Strong Thunderstorm squall line affecting USA
A strong squall line is advancing EWDS ahead of a driving cold front affecting many parts of tornado alley. The Warm and Cold front convergence at Dakota borders turning SE WDS has made SPC giving a MESOSCALE discussion in CENT AND EST IA. Some moisture is being drawn from the gulf of mexico into parts of NR TX,SRN OK and AK,LA resulting in increase in SFC moisture as being indicated by RUC models. The squall line thunderstorm will convect over Central Ok and TAIL SRN END will convect over CENT TX where 1000J/kg instability is present to increase the updrafts and also to low level shears to rotate/turn the storms. Since isolated thunderstorms are been seen in the RADAR, it seems that some supercells will explode right now within 1-2 hrs of this post and get into the 2% risk area. Convection will be highly supported when the LLJ ejects right into the 5% risk and for me in AK where sufficient instability of 1000j and some shears will be present. If the storms become strong right before entering AK, severe weather will be supported though less shear of 100 m2 s2. The cold aloft will increase the risk of hails in the areas and surface winds also will be strong/
FOr AK and NRN LA, tornadoes might occur as though I am not IN FAVOR OF IT.

The main impediment was the timing of the ingredients which seemed to be messy right till now favoured by SLOW INTERNET. The RUC runs now making things clear and looks like tornadoes can occur. I have not been FOND OF THIS SETUP FOR OK INITIALLY WHEN SPC WAS TOO HIGH FOR OK. AK AND LA WERE BETTER IN MY OPINION AND REALLY SEEMS THAT MAIN TORNADO ALLEY STILL AWAY TO THE EAST DUE TO WINTER CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMP. TO MINIMUM OF 9-13 C AT NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE PATH

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