Severe Weather Threat today for Parts of Arkansas,Missouri,Eastern Oklahoma,southern louisiana.mississippi, and western Florida

METD WEATHER

USA

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning for Severe WEather and possible tornadoes in parts of Arkansas,Missouri,eastern Oklahoma,

A new set of severe weather is expected to happen today by night to late night in parts of arkansas,missouri,and later at southern louisiana,southern mississippi,florida western part

The Newly formed Jets over cent tx will rusk rapidly towards EWD and creating active weather on the path. Central TX forecasts for morning shows low dew points and lack of shear.

The threat shall remain very restricted to this area. But as the lows progress EWD,

The warm environment with favoured shears will increase the risk of hails as well tornadoes as the lows enter the border of OK-tx-ar-la.

The low level jets of 40kt will enter the border by 18hr that is the night time. During the day for the south central states, day time heating will take place and will add to de-stabilisation of the environment till the night.The jets will weaken by 15hr. The surface maps for south central states of USA shows cyclogenesis ovr KS-MO border which will amplify the jets and push them towards central arkansas and further to south.

The thermo models show instability of 750J-1000J in these areas with the Dewpoint of 60F+

Shears will develop by late even which will increase the risk of hails and tornadoes by night in ctrl AK,Southern Misssouri,and to coastal areas of MS,LA,FL,. this is a night-early morn weather event.Threat for damaging winds and hails and also for tornadoes is very high and SPC has given 10% chance of tornadoes in this area.

Please be prepared for the action with the battery charged

CELLULAR CONVECTION IS

    EXPECTED INITIALLY..

.SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL

 FOR ISOLATED 

   TORNADOES. 

 LARGE HAIL WILL 

ALSO BE POSSIBLE..

.GIVEN LOW 60S   

 BOUNDARY LAYER 

DEWPOINTS BENEATH

 H5 TEMPERATURES 

AOB -20C.   

  OVERNIGHT...TORNADO THREAT

 SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS 

STORM MODE    BECOMES MORE

 LINEAR...THOUGH POTENTIAL

 FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND

 HAIL    WILL LIKELY

 CONTINUE WITH STRONGER

 STORMS THROUGH THE

 OVERNIGHT    HOURS.

..AS THE CONVECTION 

SPREADS/EXPANDS EWD 

ACROSS THE OZARKS AND 

   INTO IL/WRN KY/WRN

 TN/MS/AL.  

Tornadoes are very sure by 

late night