ABOVE- THE IR IMAGE OF CHANTHU WITH THE GFS,CMC,UKM,NGP MODELSMETD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster
*TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY.1 TYPHOON TOMORROW MORNING,local time BEFORE LANDFALL
* LANDFALL WILL BE WITH TROPICAL STORM STAGE
Located at 18.3N,113.0E and wind speed of 55kt at 00UTC,21st july, Tropical storm Chanthu finally managed to become a tropical storm from Tropical depression as it was facing a deficient Low level convergence and upper air divergence for a better outflow... I was expecting this feature to turn to a tropical storm late night of Monday as it finally got a better divergent feature..
Forecast models are indicating a very good chance of further intensification to a Cat.1 from tropical storm by tomorrow morning.. Right now, Chanthu is expected to move NW in a low level convergence field and upper divergence area... Warm SST coupled with absolutely no developing wind shear in the mid fields, Chanthu can become a Typhoon of winds over 65kt tomorrow morning
Landfall of Chanthu is expected to happen on Thursday evening to night hours..
The landfall of Chanthu will be surely away from Hong Kong city. It will be to the South of Yulin and north of Haikou as per the present model runs. Expected landfall strength will be near 55kt which will be a Tropical storm. Such thing will happen as a 20kt shear will be placed along with dry coastal air
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