Extreme Weather Forecaster
** LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS VIDARBHA AND OTHER NORTHERN DISTRICTS OF MAHARASHTRA
** MORE HEAVY TO MODERATE RAINS POSSIBLE ON SOUTHERN SIDE OF NAGPUR
** NAGPUR CITY WILL RECEIVE LIGHT SHOWERS AND MODERATE AT TIMES DURING EARLY MORNING
With the West-North westward track of the newly formed low pressure zone in Bay of bengal which is currently resting near Raipur causing a 14mm rainfall as against a giant rainfall depicted by the GFS, some rains are being expected in the city in morning hours.
The Low pressure which is organizing convective clouds of -60C cloud tops to the East of maharashtra is likely to trigger rains as its precipitable core arrives over mainland.
With the last low pressure which had arrived and swept across city causing absolutely NO rains but heavy rains near by, this system is expected to do the same thing and will be a more problem to rural areas instead of Nagpur city. The reason for such a chaotic relation between atmospheric conditions as against the forecasted one seems to be a dominant international aspects like a Upsurge of positive IOD from the negative phase and less SW monsoon winds flow.
I bet the forecast models will have a better performance in the peak August and September when La Nina and Positive IOD will be sufficient to cause active monsoon
Forecast for 25th july 2010,Sunday
With the low pressure tracking West-northwest wards,GFS 12z indicating this convection will reach the peak of maximization of low pressure by the midnight of 24th and move with the moving winds towards Vidarbha and other Northern districts of Maharashtra causing light to moderate rains... At few ISOLATED places the rains will be very heavy and likely cause problems such as water logging
For Nagpur city,
Light rains all the way with one or two spell of slight moderate rains towards early morning is expected.Overall cloudy condition with a cool day. Less chance of rains after AFTERNOON
The rain rate is dependent on amount of moisture associated with this low pressure and also its intensity but considering its performance in eastern states, I don't expect severe rains as being depicted by GFS
Forecast for Monday,26th July
No such significant weather