1] UPPER AIR DIVERGENCE OF UAD IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM SLIGHTLY TO SW OF MAX. UAD. SO THIS STORM MIGHT NOT RELEASE SUFFICIENT LATENT HEAT FOR STRENGTHNING
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF LLC IN BOB
Extreme Weather Forecaster,
A widespread unorganized area of convection has formed offshore Karnataka as being depicted by Cloud top temperatures of -60C and the GFS weather models. Since the area is a widespread due to absence of development of a surface low to organize convection, a solid Vorticity is developing around this convection area and given the 15kt lower convergence and organised 20kt upper air divergence feature, this widespread convection will soon organize to an organised area having a LLC or Low level circulation embeded in it in the next 24hrs...
With an expected North-Northwestward propogation, this surface low is not expected to get converted to a significant depression having a central pressure of 995mb or less. The 1000mb Surface pressure models are indicating this feature to have a central pressure of 998mb in next 24hrs but with the northerly movement it might not deepen to a 995mb depression as had happened early this week over central India.
Naturally, this surface low also is expected to help the focus and intensity of SW monsoon winds towards central India and also to pump moisture on the way.. The forecasted path for this low is a path over Central India reaching Central India by the coming Monday,near 2nd August.
As a result, Central India will get good rains by this weekend marking an INCREASE IN RATE of rainfall also..
The intensity of this Surface low or I w'd say a short depression is likely to get affected by the persisting wind shears ranging form 20kt to as max as 40kt just North of the banding feature of this depression. So that will be a short intensified but long lived depression
WEATHER FORECASTS FOR NAGPUR
VALID FOR NEXT 5 days
With the absence of good low level moisture, NGP will receive just a spell of slight showers everyday from Wednesday mostly during afternoon period
Increase in rainfall activity by the end of this weekend
FOR CENTRAL INDIA
More or less similar weather upto this weekend but increase in rainfall at this weekend