Saturday, July 17, 2010

Severe storms possible across Northern USA

Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather forecaster

A developing Shortwave trough digging in with strong upper level jets is expected to center over North Dakota with the surface low developing at the tri-front point. Severe weather is expected to pop up ahead of the cold front due to a deep moist airmass above the risk area.... Discrete supercells will form in the south-southwesterly low jets reaching 40kt at the SE of North Dakota pulling sufficient moisture from the gulf and making the firing possible.... Strong CAPE over 5000J/Kg with a very good shortwave in the 500mb will destabilise atmosphere making it favourable for severe thunderstorms which will be more linear fashion as I don't think discrete supercells will remain a long time...

Cold aloft and less PW as compared to other moderate risks for storms will lead to massive updrafts which will tend to be supportive for Severe hails mostly near Western Minnesota
Strong CAP is expected today at the target areas which tends for not breaking till Afternoon
I bet for some discrete supercells during initiation at SE ND,NE SD and western front of Minnesota capable of producing Hails and Tornadoes which then will merge to form a linear pattern. A linear organised storm moving along the front will increase the risk of high winds
This event seems to be fair for tornadoes as supercells will be more a linear based at later evening. Damaging hail risks is too high

SPC gets a 10% Tornado risk at West central Minesotta with a 5% extending some parts in Minnesota on the western front.
My tornado target is Fargo in North Dakota and few kilometers patch in South Central Minnesota

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