TOP- THE 850MB VORTICITY OF 0900Z,18TH JULY
2] THE WIND SHEAR AND FORECASTED APPROACH OF TD-4
Extreme Weather Forecaster
With a noted three devastating landfall of Typhoon conson in Philippines, Hanian Is. and Vietnam and causing 78 reported deaths, another Tropical Storm is bound to form the western Pacific
Already designated as Tropical Depression 4 with winds of 30kt, this system has a well developing surface low in minute shear area above philippines. AS per the forecast models, this depression will enter the South China Sea just now at the time of forecast. With very less upper winds and a very good upper level divergence, warm air feeding in this storm from the sea will convert to a very nice latent heat outflow thus strengthening the system in a good lower level to mid level vorticity...
This tropical depression will have no barriers from now in the sea as no deep layer shear is expected to form within next 24hrs as the SHEAR TENDANCY to the NW of the Depression is decreasing...
This tropical depression will modify to a Tropical storm on Monday afternoon and will move towards NW pattern and expected to make a landfall on 21st June with the current tendancy to the EAST_NORTHEAST of HongKong city and mostlike HK will be affected by it