Severe Thunderstorms expected in IA-NE border and Central KS TO NW OK

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras,
Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Possible severe weather in IOWA-NE border on Thursday late late evening to night and CENTRAL KS TO NW OK

With Reference to 18z RUN,31st March 2010
NAM MODELS HAVE FINALLY AGREED WITH GFS FOR THE 33-39Z EVENT. For 2z-23z, the upper level trough becomes amplified gaining upper jets of 100kt over the WESTERN states. The trough with max of 120kt will sweep over West of KS. At the SFC level, a band of 40-50-60kt low level jets will move below the trough. The best one 60kt sets EWDS the instability @ CAPE of 1000J/kg and the low level shear of 200m2 s2+' The moisture is expected to make it to 60F dewpoints in the WRN OK TO CENT KS and very rich of 60F across IA and WEST of it at the IA-NE border. Convection is likely to happen over IA border and OK NW. LI for NW OK IS -4 which is high than IA. Strong inst means strong updraft which can increase the risk of severe hails. But for all the places abv, the 700mb temp is abv 0C which means the setup will contain convective rain instead of hails and also warm till the SFC with the winds upto 20kt.
Deep convection occurence might be interfered with the polar winds coming from CANADA but I dont think it will happen. Warm front during the day to support convection will be sufficient. Speaking for Tornadoes, Torn are possible esp. NW OK TO CENT KS where the inst will be overhead with sfc EHI above 3.0. For IA and NE_IA border, the 12Z RUN were good but now not so strong.
For Friday too, Severe weather is expected from SOUTH-EAST OK TO TX E and later into MS valley.
Stay tuned for the updates!!!!!!!

Thunderstorms in Lower MS,TS valley.

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Slight risk of thunderstorms
The present RUC models are indicating a cut off trough spining with the root over EAST TX,AK,LA. This cut off trough with the upper level jets of 100kt is likely to shift E-NE WRDS later this afternoon and will reside over MS and TS valley. 30-40kt jets at the low level just below this low will transfer moisture but as the Gulf of Mexico seems to be cooler, it will not be able to bring sufficient moisture. Instability too will move E-NE wds with the Lows and at the 1hr+ low level shears will develop to the very east of the trough and the cold front mainly over MS valley and to the north of it. Some areas will get 500m2 s2 shears. Its for sure a cold core setup as the dewpoints are fair 50F throughout the action. Within the next 2-3 hours, the lows will sweep towards low LA coast and some lows will develop over MS and TS valley. By 7-9hrs, the low level jets will get converted to strong one of 40kt jets.
By that time, the low level shear will be modified to 200m2 s2 but it will be over Albama and other regions but the low level jets shall just reach upper MS and lower TS valley reducing the rotations of thunderstorms. With just 60F temp over land during day, the atmosphere shall not destablise that much required for severe thunderstorms.By the 9th hr, the instability shall just be 750J/kg in MS and TS valley which for surely are alerted for 2% risk of tornadoes. The risk of Hails is 15% due to cold aloft at 700mb. The risk for hails will be Upper MS,ALbama and lower central TS during this time. High winds too are possible in this region but I shall say overall a dud system as the threat is too low leading to lower probabilities.
Hails and winds will be prominent with absolute limited threat for tornadoes from the scattered T.storm
Another low will sweep through weekend
Stay tuned for that one!!

Some Isolated Thunderstorms possible in TX-OK today

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster

concerning- Risk of some storms in southern plains of region of TX-OK
The 18UTC,24th March RUN runs are suggesting of trough in the upper level across TX.
The trough right now seems to be stretched over TX with the upper level 100kt with the SLP of 1012mb right now turning to 1008mb low over Central TX,OK,SE KS within a period of 2hrs. For parts of TX during the afternoon hours,the surface temp is 60F which is sufficient for destabilising the atmosphere leading to more CAPE values. Right now, a cold front is sweeping through TX which is followed by the thunderstorms. The Gulf of Mexico near the USA southern COast has relatively less temp. at this time than required. This will limit the moisture and with no Low level jets over OK,TX the threat for severe weather decreases. Some instability will develop some storms and few of them will be capable of dropping LARGE hails due to cold temperatures aloft esp in NCENTRAL TO North-east TX to SE of OK. SPC gives a 15% risk of HAILS.Without the lows at surface, it will be difficult for rapid changes in wind speed and direction creating shears at the surface 0-1km level which will reduce the risk of tornadoes and strong winds.
For LAte AFTERNOON TO EVN,instability will rise in SE OK and some weak shears too will develope which will give marginal risk for tornadoes of 2%.
In all, The main pattern of this storm in OK AnD TX will be mainly not too severe but little creating 1" hails by late after to evn. The vertically lined storms will sweep across these regions and move towards My FAVOURITE STATES OF MS, AND NEARBY overby night
Thursday it is expected that there will be some tornadoes for MS,LA and other regions. Stay tuned for the next post!!
My laptop was badly crashed, so its too late to write.

METD SEVERE WEATHER ALERT FOR SILVER SPRING

METD WEATHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT-

AKSHAY DEORAS

A SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE HAS BEEN UPGRADED FOR SILVER SPRING AREA. AS THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING AN ISOLATED T.STORM HEADING THERE AND SPC HAS UPGRADED TO 15% RISK OF HAILS IN DC AREA WITH 2% OF TORNADO., IT HAS RECENTLY DROPPED HAIL

WATCH OFF FOR WINDS AND HAILS. THREAT FOR TORNADO REMAINS 2% ONLY.

High Temperature warning for Central plains of India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

concerning- High temperatures in central India.

The summer kicked off last month in Feb. 2010 with the temperatures rising to 35C. March month generally remains cool than the APRIL AND MAY. This season it is looking like there is going to be a significant record breaks this week for temperatures. The max temperatures throughout the country from 1st march to 31st march was never above the 40C.

This season the temperature in NGP has touched to 40C and today as per the report of 11:30AM, the temperature was already 40C.

The 10d panel for 1000mb temperature or surface temperature for central india is showing a stagnant belt of high temperature. Indian climate is affected due to winds blowing from Gulf countries esp. Afghanisthan. The air temp map for all the levels showing a dry air coming from those area which is actually bringing heat from states of Gujarat,Rajasthan.

After this air front enters mainland,it spreads over central parts of india esp Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. When it is pretty strong, hot temp. are experienced in northern India also. For now it is looking like the next 10 days will witness significant rise of temperature all over the country. For Nagpur the temperatures may touch the 42C line in next 96hr but not more than 44C in any case. The temperature though will be between 40-42C, people will witness more heat as the air is quite dry with little moisture. For the next 48hrs I shall give a RED signal to anyone venturing out in afternoon as the air at 500mb <5000ft> also is above 0C. The 10d panel also showing no low pressure system will affect anywhere in India giving a more scope of the heat to spread in relative dry air. If there is some low coming in then the air usually gets moisture which means a little drop in heat but no significant drop in temp. This rising temp. might be a cause of flooding in the northern areas where people live near the river basin of the himalayan rivers as in those areas also temp is high.

* A 10 DAY HEAT WAVE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 14:00 HRS ON 22ND MARCH TO 14:00 HRS ON 02ND APRIL. 

* PLEASE DON'T TRY TO VENTURE OUT IN AFTERNOON ESP AFTER 12PM TO 5PM. 

* NEXT WEATHER WATCH/ALERT WILL BE ISSUED FOR FUTURE WEATHER <IN MONTH OF APRIL> ON 1ST APRIL 2010

RECENT ALERT MESSAGE VIA BOM,AUSTRALIA

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI HAS ALREADY MADE A LANDFALL AT AUSTRALIA'S QUEEN'SLAND
HERE IS THE FOLL. MESSAGE

Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului crossed the coast near Airlie Beach at 1.30am. The centre of Ului is currently moving inland towards Collinsville. The cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves further inland this morning.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 195 km/hr near are expected to continue affecting the coastal and island communities between Ayr and Seaforth for the next hour or two.

DAMAGING winds are expected in areas between Townsville and St Lawrence over the next few hours, and extending to adjacent inland parts during the morning.

Winds will gradually ease throughout during the afternoon.

TIDES between Bowen and Mackay are currently near the highest tide of the year with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the foreshore.

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to continue about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south of the cyclone until later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.

People in the path of the dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the very destructive winds continue over the next few hours.

Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone as winds may remain light for up to an hour - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

People from Townsville to St Lawrence and inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Moranbah should have completed preparations and remain in secure shelter.
.Boats and outside property should now be secured.
.For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
.For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului

Details:
Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 am March 21 3 20.3S 148.5E 30
+6hr 9 am March 21 2 20.5S 147.0E 65
+12hr 3 pm March 21 1 20.6S 145.6E 95
+18hr 9 pm March 21 tropical low 20.7S 144.2E 120
+24hr 3 am March 22 tropical low 20.8S 142.8E 150
+36hr 3 pm March 22 tropical low 20.3S 139.9E 210
+48hr 3 am March 23 tropical low 18.2S 137.0E 270

TC Ului arrives at Airlie Beach, Eyewall passing through mainland

METD Weather
TC ULUI STATUS # 2
Time 3:57LT

TC ULUI has entered Airlie beach at 1:30 LT as per BMO,australia.
The eyewall is right now passing through the main land CONFIRMED REPORTS of Eyewall passing between Airlie beach and Mackay at 16:32 UTC.
Winds reported to me 205km/hr

Cyclone is now expected to weaken as it moves over land. However the precipitation cores will now rumble causing floods and heavy rains in some parts.......

METD WEATHER OPERATING LIVE FROM INDIA FOR TC ULUI

Dear all,
With respect of the landfall of cat. 3 tropical cyclone Ului, I am operating live with all the australian network servers

The current updates will be given through here and twitter. Kindly see them

PRESENT STATS AND UPDATE-
TIME 16:45HRS GMT,20TH MARCH... 03:49AM,21ST MARCH EST

METD WEATHER HAS CONFIRMED THAT TC ULUI HAS STRENGTHENED TO CAT 3. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IN 964MB WHICH HAS DROPPED FROM 990MB+ WITHIN HOURS.
AS ANALYZED BY BMO ON 1:00 LOCAL TIME,ULUI--
The cyclone is currently crossing the coast near Airlie Beach as a severe tropical cyclone. The large eye of Ului is expected to continue inland crossing Proserpine, Bowen and Collinsville in the next hour or two. The cyclone is then expected to gradually weaken as it moves further inland later today.
BOWEN NOW HAS WINDS OVER 50KM/HR AND THE PRESSURE IS 986mb.

WINDS EXPECTED TO RISE TO 205KM/HR
ALERT ALERT ALERT





Category 3
Sustained winds 50–58 m/s 96–113 kt

178–209 km/h 111–130 mph

Storm surge 2.7–3.7 m 9–12 ft

Central pressure 945–964 mbar 27.91–28.47 inH

CAT 3 Tropical cyclone Ului to make landfall in Queensland,Australia on 21st March 2010

METD ALERT
Akshay Deoras
IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED_

As had earlier been said,cyclone ului is heading straight towards Australia's North Eastern part. AS per the latest observations this cyclone will make a landfall somewhere between Bowan and Mackey,Queensland and the eyewall is expected to pass through Proserpine. TC Ului has devastating wind speed ranging to 63mph gusting to 64mph. Ului is at present 19.9 S and 151.7E. Ului, currently a category two storm on the scale of one to five, is 365 kilometers (227 miles) east-northeast of the city of Mackay, moving west southwest at 27 kilometers an hour, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on its Web site in a bulletin issued at 1:55 p.m. local time. The state government preemptively declared a disaster situation.T

This cyclone is expected to strengthen as it comes to the coast. Recently it had weakened due to a NW WIND SHEAR.But recent satellite images are showing that it has strengthen to some extent leading to high wind. The difference in the two 6hourly images is showing that the cyclone has organized a lot. According to Australian meterology this cyclone will be cat 3 at the time of landfall.
here is the bulletin----
Remarks:

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay, most likely in the Proserpine region as a severe tropical cyclone early Sunday. The cyclone is then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 200 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect coastal and island communities in the threatened area late tonight and early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon this evening, then extend to adjacent inland parts during Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence may rise to just above the highest tide of the year overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the foreshore.

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People in the path of the dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the very destructive winds develop late tonight and early Sunday. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone as winds may remain light for up to an hour - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

People from Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should now be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services
website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage)
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului

Details:
Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 20 3 20.0S 150.3E 35
+6hr 2 am March 21 3 20.3S 148.7E 65
+12hr 8 am March 21 2 20.6S 147.1E 95
+18hr 2 pm March 21 1 20.9S 145.7E 120
+24hr 8 pm March 21 tropical low 21.1S 144.3E 150
+36hr 8 am March 22 tropical low 21.0S 141.5E 210
+48hr 8 pm March 22 tropical low 19.5S 138.6E 270
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 10:00 pm EST Saturday

BELOW ARE THE TECHNICAL DETAILS--

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in northern quadrants extending to
70 nautical miles in southern quadrants with high to very high seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in northern quadrants
and within 140 nautical miles in southern quadrants with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 20 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 20.4 south 148.4 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots
At 0600 UTC 21 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 21.0 south 145.4 east over
land
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email
to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241 through
Land Earth Station Perth 212.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 20 March 2010.

Update of Recent Weather conditions in USA southern plains

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras

Concerning- Heavy snowfall with Winter storm condition in Oklahoma and weak storms in LA,MS

A powerful system is expected to enter Oklahoma shortly causing heavy rains which will convert rain to snow at some places due to approaching cold front.The 850mb forecast models of 00z RUN is showing an intensifying low level jet of 40kt over western Oklahoma.
The overhead low means a winter storm condition with high wind crossing 40miles/hour.
The accumulated rain/snow models is showing significant snowfall of as high as 10" + in still water Oklahoma and 3-5" for Altus,OK. Blowing snow is expected as the winds achieve 33mph in NWSTRN OK,32mph in OKC. NWS HAS ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNING AND WATCHES FOR OKLAHOMA. The temperatures are going to be negative in this region infront of the cfront.
People must undertake all the safety measures.
Meanwhile as Oklahoma will continue with Winter storm, for the 09z,an approaching storm will lash central parts of Texas. These upper level low will fire LLJ with 30kt gusts over parts of Central TX to Upper parts of TX.Helicity index for the lower level shows 200m2,s2 values which will be helpful in rotating the storm. The updrafts will be pretty intense in these regions as the CAPE rises to more than 1000J/kg.
The SKEW-T map shows a OC at the favoured lower levels 650mb which will be helpful in creating the hails. Storms will fire here after the half part of morning. Damaging wind gusts are expected here.The threat for tornadoes however remains 2% with the threat of Hails about 5%. THe EHI<0-1km> is showing high energetic conditions of 2.0 which might create supercells.
The same day,threat for Louisiana and MS valley for thunderstorms decreases as uptil 21z, no lows will move EWDS To the MS Valley. The storms will line up at the pre-frontal activity zone which will slow the condition as analyzed by the NAM.
I bet Texas has a good scope than MS on saturday. At 27z,cyclogenesis at the lower level will strengthen the storm and push the LLJ EWDS.
After 36z, storms will fire in different zone of the southern MS,AL.
The instability remains too less there as the cold front approaches and drops the temperature and the dew point to 40F. Damaging winds are expected at this area as the energetic conditions are very low.
Some storms too will fire in Florida coast but the same lower conditions are there.

Mixed Weather to happen in southern plains of USA on 20th March

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

CONCERNING- MIXED ROUND OF WEATHER IN USA.

IN USA,THIS YEAR, ONLY 56 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED OUT OF WHICH 41 IN JAN,1 IN FEB AND 14 IN MARCH.

12z,18th march run
THE GFS 12Z RUN FOR 60HR INDICATING A CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER SOUTHER PLAINS WITH THE MAX SPEED OF 100KT AT THE 300MB LEVEL. THE TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER SRN TX PEEPING IN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE LEVEL MAP SHOWS 50KT JETS OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER LLJ 45KT AND 50KT OVER OK AND TX-NM BORDER. THE CONCERNING ONE IS THE LLJ OVER OK
THE SURFACE SLP MAP IS SHOWING LOW CENTERED SWWRDS OK AND THE AIR TEMP MAP IS SHOWING COOL AIR MASS ALL OVER IN OK. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE COLD FRONT COMING IN DUE TO THIS LOW. GENERALLY THE CFRONT APPEARS TO THE WEST OF LOW COMING FROM N-NW WRDS.
THIS COLD FRONT IS GOING TO DECREASE THE DAY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY FOR OKLAHOMA CONSIDERABLY. AT PRESENT SURFACE TEMP OF NORMAN,OK IS 17C WHICH WILL DROP TO THE FREEZING POINT ON SAT.THE AIR TOO IS SATURATED WITH WATER VAPOUR WITH RH 90%. THE SKEW-T FOR NORMAN SHOWS TEMP OF 0C AT THE 900MB BUT WILL RISE TO POSITIVE UPTO 700MB. THIS TEMP HAS TO BE 0C. SO PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE SNOW AS THE AIR TEMP AT 900MB WILL BE 0 WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE 4C.
AS THERE IS AN OVERHEAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LLJ AT THE SURFACE,HIGH WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 20KT OR 35KM+ ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WHICH MIGHT GIVE THE EFFECT OF A WINTER STORM AS THE ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION SHOWING MODERATE SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE OK IS EXPECTED TO BATTER UP WITH SNOW DURING AFTERNOON TO NIGHT HRS WITH INCREASING WIND GUSTS AS THE LLJ AMPLIFIES, 50KT LLJ WILL CREATE THUNDERSTORMS IN MS RIVER VALLEY REGION TO THE COASTAL AREAS. CHANCE OF TSTORMS NEAR MS LIKE LOUISIANA IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT. FOR MS VALLEY,THE AIR TEMP FOR THE SURFACE TILL THE MIDDLE LEVEL IS GOING TO BE AROUND 16C OR 61F. THE DEWPOINT WILL BE AROUND 60F. THE INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER LATE AFTERNOON WITH FIRING OF T.STORM AROUND THIS TIME. SPEAKING FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE.TORNADOES TOO ARE POSSIBLE. THE INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE AROUND 750J/KG WHICH MAY RISE TO 800+ DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THE COLD FRONT SHALL NOT BECOME A BARRIER FOR JACKSON,MS AND LOUISIANA AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AWAY FROM THESE AREAS. WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODERATE 21KM WIND HERE IN MS.THE VORTICITY MODEL SHOWING AIR SPIN IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE V.VORT IS SIGNIFICANT. THE EHI MODELS CANT BE DETERMINED ACCURATELY NOW.
THE COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND HIGHLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DECREASING DAY/NIGHT TEMP. I LAUGH WHEN I SEE THE TEMP AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR DODGE CITY,KS WHICH WAS JOHN HALLEN'S PLACE OF BET FOR TORNADOES DURING LAST MARCH 2010 OUTBREAK WHICH REPORTED 2 TORN AT OK. D.CITY WILL GET SNOWFALL!!!!

FOR MS AND JACKSON AS SOON AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES E WRDS,COLD FRONT WILL DROP NIGHT TEMP TO 1C ON SAT NIGHT.RAINS WILL STAY AFTER STORM PASSES

FOR T STORM CONDITION ON SAT 20TH MAR
THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE CONDITIONS AND SHOW SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF TSTORM IN MS. SO SPC HAS ISSUED 15% RISK FOR LOUISIANA AND MS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE AGAINST IT BUT I WILL STICK TO THE ECMWF.
MORE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATER AS THE NEW RUNS COME!
* THE FRIDAY OUTLOOK OF SPC WILL BE TRANSLATED BY ME TONIGHT

Tropical cyclone tomas bypasses fiji

Tropical cyclone Tomas landed at Fiji killing one person. Tropical Cyclone Ului had maximum sustained winds of 130 knots (240 kilometers per hour, 150 miles per hour) and gusts up to 160 knots (300 km/hr, 180 mph). Over Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Tomas had maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (215 km/hr, 132 mph) and gusts up to 140 knots (260 km/hr, 160 mph)

Ului is now a threat to australia


See the foll.links of the landfall

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMsToqS48jk

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2010/mar/16/tropical-cyclone-tomas-fiji-islands

Tropical Cyclone Tomas-a threat for Fiji group

METD WEATHER

AKshay Deoras

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED--

A tropical Cyclone known as Tomas with a damaging wind gusts and a central pressure of 940mb is moving towards Fiji Island

Here are the warnings.

Hurricane Warning Update: 2pm

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

+ Enlarge this image

A satellite image of TC Tomas over the Northern Lau group at 6.30am today

Special Weather Bulletin Number 26 for Fiji on Tropical Cyclone Tomas Issued from RSMC NADI at 1:54pm on Tuesday the 16th of March 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, KABARA, ONO-I-LAU, AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR NAYAU, LAKEBA, AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR KORO, GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, TAVEUNI, FAR SOUTH EAST OF VANUA LEVU, RABI, KIOA, QAMEA, LAUCALA, NAITAUBA, YACATA, VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, REST OF THE LOMAIVITI GROUPS AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 240KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU OR 235 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 1PM TODAY.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 165 KM/HR EASING TO 100 KM/HR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT 20 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 35KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU OR 395 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA 1AM TOMORROW AND ABOUT 390 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU OR 785 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 1PM TOMORROW.

FOR MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, KABARA, ONO-I-LAU, AND NEARBY ISLANDS:

• WINDS TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 165 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR.
• FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
• PHENOMINAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
• FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE NAYAU, LAKEBA, AND NEARBY ISLANDS:

• WINDS TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS 130 KM/HR.
• FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
• VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR KORO, GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, TAVEUNI, FAR SOUTH EAST OF VANUA LEVU, RABI, KIOA, QAMEA, LAUCALA, NAITAUBA, YACATA, VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, REST OF THE LOMAIVITI GROUPS AND NEARBY ISLANDS:

• WINDS TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR.
• PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
• VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
• FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:

• FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
• CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
• POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
• ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

• HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS.
• STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS.
• GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SECTORS AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE WESTERN SECTORS.
• ELSEWHERE STRONG WINDS VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

HIGH ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORM IN NAGPUR ON 12TH MARCH EVENING-NIGHT. URGENT

 METD ALERT- IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED. A BIG THUNDERSTORM HEADING TOWARDS NAGPUR WITH HIGH RADAR REFLECTIVITY. MODELS AND RADAR HAVE CONFIRMED A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN NEXT HOURS.TIME IS 07:20PM. ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 12 AM MIDNIGHT,13TH MARCH 2010. IT CAN BE STRONG WITH HIGH WINDS! PLEASE SPREAD THE MESSAGE. THIS STORM EITHER CAN HIT OR MISS. THE MORE CHANCE IS A DIRECT HIT. PLEASE REMOVE TV CONNECTIONS,FRIDGE CONNECTIONS ETC. TILL I CALL OFF THE WARNING. 

PREVENTION IS ALWAYS BETTER

akshay

Many tornadoes reported in USA. New alert for thursday,Friday

METD Weather

Akshay Deoras

Lead Weather Forecaster-

Concerning- Slight severe Weather In USA on thursday,friday

I have no time for updating my writing so its review from SPC

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK      NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK    0659 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010        VALID 111300Z - 121200Z        ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL...        ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN    VLYS...        ...SYNOPSIS...    BROAD UPR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LWR MO VLY WILL PERSIST OVER THE    CNTRL U.S THIS PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER AZ/NM CONTINUES    E/SE TO S TX AND THE LWR MS VLY.  FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL JET ALSO    WILL PERSIST FROM S TX ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NRN FL.          AT THE SFC...IA LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE UPR MS VLY AS TRAILING    COLD FRONT DECELERATES OVER LWR PORTIONS OF THE OH...TN...AND MS    VLYS.  A SECONDARY LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE LWR MS VLY LATER IN THE    PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF AZ/NM UPR IMPULSE.  IN THE MEAN    TIME...WEAK WAVE ON W/E STNRY FRONT JUST S OF THE FL PANHANDLE    SHOULD TRACK E ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN FL TO THE GA CSTL WATERS    BY EVE.        ...FL AND SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES TODAY/TONIGHT...    40+ KT SWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE AND BENEATH    EXIT REGION OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE NERN    GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA TODAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FAIRLY RICH    MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AND PW AOA 1.50 IN/ TO    OVERSPREAD NRN AND CNTRL FL S OF STALLED W/E FRONT/RAIN-REINFORCED    BOUNDARY.  WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUDS    WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT SBCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG.        LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE    SWD INTO THE NERN GULF EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD WITH    ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE THROUGH THE DAY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS    LIKELY WILL FORM S AND E OF THE MCS IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING OF    MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA.        DESPITE MODEST CAPE...GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT    AND DEGREE OF BOTH LOW-LVL AND DEEP SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT SHORT    LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS.  THESE MAY    PRODUCE BOTH TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LWR    TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LARGE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY DURING    THE AFTN.  WHILE THE SVR THREAT MAY DIMINISH THIS EVE...THE THREAT    MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS THE LLJ REDEVELOPS    AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE.        ...MID MS/LWR OH VLYS THIS AFTN...    LOBE OF ASCENT ROTATING AROUND MO VLY CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS    THE IL AREA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...ATOP NARROW    CORRIDOR OF LOW LVL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR 50S F AND PW    AROUND 1 IN/.  SFC HEATING IN ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MAY BOOST SBCAPE    TO AROUND 750 J/KG GIVEN COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES.  SETUP MAY    SUPPORT EARLY AFTN DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT    NOW OVER E CNTRL MO AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES E OF THE MS RVR.     HOWEVER...12Z SGF RAOB AND SOME MODEL THERMAL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT    A WARM LAYER MIGHT MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND THE 700 MB LVL THAT    COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.  AT ANY RATE...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL    NOT BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC    ENVIRONMENT...ONE OR TWO BANDS OF STRONG STORMS MAY FORM IF WARM    LAYER IS BREACHED.  THESE COULD YIELD HAIL AND PERHAPS A SPINUP-TYPE    TORNADO OR TWO.  ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD END LATER IN THE DAY.         ...LWR MS AND TN VLYS LATE...    TRAILING PORTION OF STALLING COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR    STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS ASCENT WITH AZ/NM UPR    IMPULSE OVERTAKES MOIST AXIS LIKELY TO REMAIN PRESENT E OF THE MS    RVR.  COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG    DEEP SHEAR...STORMS MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DMGG WIND AS    THEY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS.    

Severe Weather Threat today for Parts of Arkansas,Missouri,Eastern Oklahoma,southern louisiana.mississippi, and western Florida

METD WEATHER

USA

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning for Severe WEather and possible tornadoes in parts of Arkansas,Missouri,eastern Oklahoma,

A new set of severe weather is expected to happen today by night to late night in parts of arkansas,missouri,and later at southern louisiana,southern mississippi,florida western part

The Newly formed Jets over cent tx will rusk rapidly towards EWD and creating active weather on the path. Central TX forecasts for morning shows low dew points and lack of shear.

The threat shall remain very restricted to this area. But as the lows progress EWD,

The warm environment with favoured shears will increase the risk of hails as well tornadoes as the lows enter the border of OK-tx-ar-la.

The low level jets of 40kt will enter the border by 18hr that is the night time. During the day for the south central states, day time heating will take place and will add to de-stabilisation of the environment till the night.The jets will weaken by 15hr. The surface maps for south central states of USA shows cyclogenesis ovr KS-MO border which will amplify the jets and push them towards central arkansas and further to south.

The thermo models show instability of 750J-1000J in these areas with the Dewpoint of 60F+

Shears will develop by late even which will increase the risk of hails and tornadoes by night in ctrl AK,Southern Misssouri,and to coastal areas of MS,LA,FL,. this is a night-early morn weather event.Threat for damaging winds and hails and also for tornadoes is very high and SPC has given 10% chance of tornadoes in this area.

Please be prepared for the action with the battery charged

CELLULAR CONVECTION IS

    EXPECTED INITIALLY..

.SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL

 FOR ISOLATED 

   TORNADOES. 

 LARGE HAIL WILL 

ALSO BE POSSIBLE..

.GIVEN LOW 60S   

 BOUNDARY LAYER 

DEWPOINTS BENEATH

 H5 TEMPERATURES 

AOB -20C.   

  OVERNIGHT...TORNADO THREAT

 SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS 

STORM MODE    BECOMES MORE

 LINEAR...THOUGH POTENTIAL

 FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND

 HAIL    WILL LIKELY

 CONTINUE WITH STRONGER

 STORMS THROUGH THE

 OVERNIGHT    HOURS.

..AS THE CONVECTION 

SPREADS/EXPANDS EWD 

ACROSS THE OZARKS AND 

   INTO IL/WRN KY/WRN

 TN/MS/AL.  

Tornadoes are very sure by 

late night 

No chance of rainfall for today

The chance for rainfall on 10th march has become less. 

The alert is removed!

Rainfall Alert for nagpur on 10th march 2010 night!

METD Weather

Concerning- Rainfall alert #05 for Nagpur

The summer has already kicked off in the Indian plains and the temperatures have exceeded 35Deg Celcius.The weather models have been consistent with the chance of rainfall and isolated thunderstorms over central India. A low pressure zone in Bay Of Bengal is expected to move northwards weakening towards bangladesh. This LW will pump some cut off troughs towards Center and those will be the Neg.Vorticities. This means it will cause T.storm. 

For Nagpur, On 10th March,Wed. The day will be very hot. There is a strong chance of isolated T.storm at night and its going to be like the lasts mondays thing. 

The day's heat will build the clouds and will strengthen them to T.storms by Late afternoon to Midnight. The instability is overhead and the lift index are less than -2. 

If the day heats up sufficiently, the atmosphere will destabilize and might generate Hails or GARA by Evening. The rains will start by late evening or probably 5pm and will continue till night. Total amounts will be 1-2mm

On 12th march 2010, there is some RH present in the upper levels of atmosphere. The models are indicating rainfall right from the morning with a chance of thunderstorm 

I will verify the 12th march models later but remember tomorrow Evening and night will be cool. 

For me,I am expecting Hails in Nagpur which might fall tomorrow and better chance is on 12th march. 

stay safe-

Akshay

Extreme Weather Forecaster,Metd Weather

The weather turns to SW Oklahoma and Central Texas

Severe weather is possible tomorrow in SW OK,central TX.

The Helicity is very positive that is 600.

THe low level jet is 50kt

Moderate severe possible in USA during 7-8th march

METD Weather

USA

Concerning for thunderstorms in some parts of USA

Seeing the models it is looking like the tornado alley of USA is getting back into action slowly by following a very slow path. The 90hr GFS is showing the arrival of one 120kt jet upper level system into states of southern USA like Texas. The winter is still prevalent in many parts and there were zero tornado reports in Feb 2010 which is a history. Meanwhile there were many sayings that this season is late. But it doesnt' seem so. I had been seeing for this model throughout the runs from 1st March with an expectation of producing something in the southern states. A bet is also on between me and John Hallen Of SWS regarding this system .JH seems to be favouring for Kansas and hopes there will be a cold core storm in kansas where the thermodynamics are negative with low dewpoints,low moisture. The best one has to be texas southern and western part. The 90hr GFS has been consistent right from 140hr GFS from the model runs from 1st march

Coming to this system--

The main upper level trough is slowing progressing with a little delay. It seems its going to show the best on Monday afternoon. At the surface level,there are 40-30kt jets near and around central texas with some over the mexican border in areas of Del Rio. in these areas the dewpoints are fair but better than the northern part. The DP is 60F and the main problem goes with the instability. the instability is marginal 750J/kg for texas. this will restrict the strengthning of the thunderstorm. There is limited moisture at the surface and more I can say is restricted to some parts like souther tx.nm border and then later spreads towards east parts and North-eastern Tx.

Still looking at strong cold air advection at 700-500 Mb in the TX panhandle w/divergent flow. This is little negative but the conditions are expected to be a bit ok on monday.

THE Lift index values are -4 showing strong possibility of thunderstorms in the central part of texas.

The LLJ will move towards north eastern texas and thus there will be two system outbreak

I will however support the one over texas and mexican border near the areas of Del Rio as this will be better than the one over Texas and Oklahoma border.

The conditions will be clear tomorrow as the new model runs come in.

SUpport my team TX

I shall not be able to upgrade further due to some busy schedule in the coming week

So please turn on ur radios and check other websites for details

www.severewarningsystems.com

Akshay