DEFICIENT MONSOON AFFECTS KHARIF SOWING. HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN EAST,NORTH EAST INDIA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER


The Indian Summer Monsoon which has become a headache for the farmers and weather forecasters this year has given another shock. The datas from the NCEP for Southern India are indicating deficient rainfall across the Southern India.

The data updated till 20th June 2012 for a period of past 30 days is as follows

STATION                          PERIOD TOTAL RAIN(mm)                     ANOMALY(mm)

BOMBAY                            141.4                                                            -132.4
(SANTACRUZ)

PUNE                                   26.8                                                              - 89.5


GOA                                     816                                                              +191.9

MANGALORE                   622.1                                                            -172.8

COCHIN                             285.6                                                            - 303.1


TRIVANDRUM                  94                                                                 - 212.9


CHENNAI                           3.5                                                               - 61.1


BANGALORE                   8.9                                                                - 109.9


NAGPUR                          125.3                                                             + 24

KOLKATA                       86.4                                                               - 167

TEZPUR ( ASSAM)        451.1                                                             + 160.8

GUWAHATI                   417.4                                                              + 148.4

WHAT DOES ONE INFER?

Looking at this 30-day rainfall pattern for those areas where the Monsoon has reached, its very clear that the Bay of Bengal branch is more active than the Arabian Sea branch. Though all the station's data hasn't been considered, the prominent datas are sufficient to draw the conclusion.

The strange monsoon onset pattern of this year even didn't help the Western Coast. I was expecting that the Western Coasts will be getting excess of rainfall as compared to the interiors but the Western coasts ( Except Goa) are also witnessing deficient monsoon conditions.

Even Minicoy,Laccadive ( Lakshadweep Is.) has got 243.5mm rainfall which is 37.9mm deficient.

I do blame the Negative ( Neutral IOD) Indian Ocean Dipole to be directly responsible. The 2012 IndiMO 1 presented by METD WEATHER showed a direct relation of the MJO and IOD.
The Somali Current or the monsoon winds aren't strong to bring heavy rains in these region and also in the interior parts of India like interior Southern India such as Bangalore,Cochin and Southern parts like Trivandrum etc.

Chennai has got only 3.5mm rains ( 2.4mm) at the airport. Cochin also has recorded more than 300mm less rains.

On the other hand, Central India has got a bit surplus rainfall. Its all due to the recent low pressure influence which is also reducing now.

North-East India has got very good rainfall this season till now.

WHATS NEXT??

The GFS 12z,22nd June shows the low pressure region at 850mb across the Eastern India. 

This low pressure region will be bringing heavy rains in Eastern India especially ACROSS THE NORTH EASTERN STATES LIKE ASSAM,MEGHALAYA till 27th June 2012. 


Flooding conditions can be expected again in Assam so people must be careful in this region. 


Meanwhile, the mentioned break monsoon situation is now all set to appear in India ( excluding East and North East India). Rainfall amount and cloud cover shall be going down in Central India,Southern India ( some parts of Western India) also while North India continues to wait for the Monsoon.

Here is the 850mb moisture map of GFS 12z,22nd June valid till 144hr i.e 28th June 2012. One can see how significantly less is the moisture over India ( excluding the western coast).

The 12z runs do indicate some less moisture but anything like the one being indicated seems likely and hence the break monsoon situation will happen.

Temperature rise is expected in Central India due to absence of cloud cover

KHARIF CROP SOWING CRISIS CONTINUES

COURTESY- THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE

Due to deficient rainfall, the kharif crop sowing crisis still continues in India as the necessary rainfall for the sowing isn't there. Planting of paddy crops is delayed in the states like Karnataka,Andhra Pradesh,TN,Assam etc.

Here is a wonderful news report of it-

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article3559490.ece

Only 50% area has been sown in Maharashtra.

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