METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
21st June 2012,
1130PM IST
Nagpur-
Rainfall continued almost for the entire day in Central India including Nagpur. The rainfall was very heavy towards the Chattisgarh region. As was mentioned in the earlier posts, the low pressure region at the lower atmospheric profiles currently somewhere NW of Jharkhand-MP region was responsible for the increased moisture in the region causing the rainfall which has been non convective in the Maharashtra side. The Monsoon current or the Somali Current continues to remain weak considering the IOD DMI of around 0.05.
The GFS models continue to indicate that the surface low pressure will be moving NW and fizzing out as it cuts off from the 850mb low over Eastern India. As this activity happens, there will be a decrease in the rainfall in Central India though mostly cloudy weather can be expected on Friday considering the low position.
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The break monsoon situation seems to be likely for the Central India starting from around 24th June or so.
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Rest of India-
Heavy rainfall shall continue in the Eastern parts adjoining Maharashtra atleast on 22nd June. Though the rainfall rate can be low but the rainfall accumulation seems to be very good. Northern India is still continuing to wait for the monsoon. The maximum temperature in New Delhi today was 43C with dry winds likely to be blowing in the Northern India.
The monsoon seems to be progressing there in July itself and hence I shall not be changing the previous forecasts for the region regarding the monsoon onset including Sindh region.
IMD has advanced the Northern Limits of the monsoon today. The Northern limits as per them covers Eastern Uttar Pradesh,Eastern Madhya Pradesh also.
The break monsoon situation for the interior parts of India,Central India is very likely from around 25-26th June 2012.
In the Western India, rainfall was less today. The weather in these areas can be expected to remain almost the same with much of high heat indices leading to a bit uncomfortable conditions.
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METD WEATHER MONSOON ONSET NORTHERN LIMITS
The last update on the METD WEATHER monsoon onsets was of Mumbai region. The next major advancement was expected to be of Nagpur and Central India on/by 19th June 2012. However as the conditions required weren't satisfied, the monsoon onset wasn't considered. The irregular rainfall pattern ( all convective) in Central India even were not favorable for the onset.
Though all the parameters required for the declaration of the monsoon till Central Madhya Pradesh are getting satisfied, the break monsoon situation seems to be a worrying factor. Nevertheless, the rainfall activity in this region will be measured and monitored on 22nd June and any major decision ( if any) regarding the further advancement of the monsoon shall be taken on Saturday,23rd June 2012 keeping in mind the 48hr parameters pattern.
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NOMINATED FOR THE "YOUNG ACHIEVERS AWARD 2012" BY LOKMAT GROUP
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