METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
The Indian Summer Monsoon marked timings as per the METD WEATHER IndiMO but not 100%.... As was expected,the monsoon is very much passive in June and the progress is very slow.
The latest IMD Monsoon Advance map shows the slow movement feature.Also the low pressure area formed in the Arabian Sea in the late May into June deflected the winds and made much from the west due to which the monsoon movement this year is much more rapid and northwards along the Western Coast as compared to the Southern India. The Bay of Bengal branch is progressing very well.
The so called monsoon current or the Somali current is also weak right now with the dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation in progress. As was mentioned in the IndiMO I, the MJO is directly associated with the IOD ( Indian Ocean Dipole). When the IOD is positive, enhanced wet phase of the MJO happens which brings more rainfall across India and boosts the monsoon as well.
As seen from this observed and estimated DMI ( Dipole Mode Index), the IOD for May end to June is much towards the negative or neutral. The last week value was +0.17 which is the neutral. As the IOD is turning to neutral, I do estimate that the intensity of the dry and the west phase will be equal now as against the high intensity of the dry phase during the negative event which was happening now. The DMI forecast do confirm that the DMI will turn to the positive side in the July-August period which one can consider favorable for the monsoon rainfall.
Whats next????
As can be seen from the 144hr 850mb GFS, there is much improvement in the moisture for the western belt only which starts from Southern India. Parts like Central India, Eastern parts of Central Southern India will still be deficient in terms of the moisture which includes many cities like Chennai,Bangalore,Hyderabad,Nagpur etc..
This clarifies that the Monsoon IS LIKELY TO BE DELAYED IN THE CENTRAL INDIA AND
SUBSEQUENTLY IN THE NORTHERN INDIA,SINDH AREAS ALSO.
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN INDIA ALSO WILL EXPERIENCE DEFICIENT RAINS WHICH CAN BE TILL 20TH JUNE ATLEAST.
THE SW MONSOON WHICH EARLIER WAS EXPECTED TO REACH NAGPUR BY 19TH JUNE 2012 WILL BE DELAYED THIS YEAR THOUGH THE 850MB MOISTURE REACHES. THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY ( HEAVY RAIN) WHICH IS A METD WEATHER MONSOON ONSET NORM SEEMS TO BE VIOLATED ON 19TH JUNE.
OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN JULY AND AUGUST...
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
The Indian Summer Monsoon marked timings as per the METD WEATHER IndiMO but not 100%.... As was expected,the monsoon is very much passive in June and the progress is very slow.
The latest IMD Monsoon Advance map shows the slow movement feature.Also the low pressure area formed in the Arabian Sea in the late May into June deflected the winds and made much from the west due to which the monsoon movement this year is much more rapid and northwards along the Western Coast as compared to the Southern India. The Bay of Bengal branch is progressing very well.
The so called monsoon current or the Somali current is also weak right now with the dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation in progress. As was mentioned in the IndiMO I, the MJO is directly associated with the IOD ( Indian Ocean Dipole). When the IOD is positive, enhanced wet phase of the MJO happens which brings more rainfall across India and boosts the monsoon as well.
As seen from this observed and estimated DMI ( Dipole Mode Index), the IOD for May end to June is much towards the negative or neutral. The last week value was +0.17 which is the neutral. As the IOD is turning to neutral, I do estimate that the intensity of the dry and the west phase will be equal now as against the high intensity of the dry phase during the negative event which was happening now. The DMI forecast do confirm that the DMI will turn to the positive side in the July-August period which one can consider favorable for the monsoon rainfall.
Whats next????
As can be seen from the 144hr 850mb GFS, there is much improvement in the moisture for the western belt only which starts from Southern India. Parts like Central India, Eastern parts of Central Southern India will still be deficient in terms of the moisture which includes many cities like Chennai,Bangalore,Hyderabad,Nagpur etc..
This clarifies that the Monsoon IS LIKELY TO BE DELAYED IN THE CENTRAL INDIA AND
SUBSEQUENTLY IN THE NORTHERN INDIA,SINDH AREAS ALSO.
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN INDIA ALSO WILL EXPERIENCE DEFICIENT RAINS WHICH CAN BE TILL 20TH JUNE ATLEAST.
THE SW MONSOON WHICH EARLIER WAS EXPECTED TO REACH NAGPUR BY 19TH JUNE 2012 WILL BE DELAYED THIS YEAR THOUGH THE 850MB MOISTURE REACHES. THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY ( HEAVY RAIN) WHICH IS A METD WEATHER MONSOON ONSET NORM SEEMS TO BE VIOLATED ON 19TH JUNE.
OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN JULY AND AUGUST...
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