First week of July to bring rains in Central India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Finally a little good news seems to be coming in! First we shall see the last week rainfall of June 2012

Top most is the weekly rainfall ( 21st June to 27th June 2012) and the above one is the Monsoon season rainfall from 1st June to 27th June ( data updated till 29th June).

Considering the seasonal rainfall, it can be noted that only NE India ( Sikkim) i.e Assam and Meghalaya has got excess rainfall while the majority areas are in the DEFICIENT and SCANTY ZONE. The rainfall has been normal in the Western Maharashtra,Western Karnataka and some Eastern parts of Andhra Pradesh,Odisha,Chattisgarh,Lakshadweep and A&N Islands and some parts of the NE India.

The weak monsoon current and slow onset has resulted in such a large deficiency leading to multiple problems like bad sowing of the Kharif Crops,Water storage deficiency etc.

Above- The EWP map of the Madden Julian Oscillation shows the arriving wet phase ( green shade) over India. This phase is a very weak in terms of the strength but will not be so bad and hence the rainfall is expected to increase this period. 

Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole is still towards negative neutral which will be fueling the dry phase more than the wet phase as per the IndiMo 1- so again it can be expected that the rainfall will be non normal and a bit scanty from July end period. 

Favored by the MJO Wet phase and a couple of low pressures from the Bay of Bengal soon rainfall is expected in a wide area of Central India 

On 1st July, 

Areas like Washim,Akola and vicinity will be receiving some rainfall. The rainfall is expected to be convective or thunder rains in nature. Some more parts of Central,Eastern Maharashtra also will receive rains. 

2nd July-

The rainfall is expected in the entire Maharashtra state including Nagpur,some parts of Madhya Pradesh ,Chattisgarh as well. This rainfall can be expected to be little good in terms of the sowing of the Kharif Crops in these areas ( if sowing has not been done) 

3rd July- 

The rainfall is again expected in the above areas and will be considerably good helping the seeds. The rainfall is expected in a region from Central MP,Chattisgarh,Maharashtra prominently 

4th July-

The rainfall is expected to decrease a bit in Maharashtra but will be the same almost in Chattisgarh. Isolated rainfall can be expected in many parts of Maharashtra due to the low effect. 

5th July-

Rainfall expected in Central,Northern Madhya Pradesh,Chattisgarh and areas around Chattsgarh 

SYNOPSIS-

* GOOD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND/IN NAGPUR,VIDARBHA AND SURROUNDING DISTRICTS IN MAHARASHTRA,MADHYA PRADESH FROM JULY 2 ONWARDS

* THE RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH ( BETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS) FOR THE SOWING OF KHARIF CROPS IN MAHARASHTRA ESPECIALLY CENTRAL INDIA

* SUCH AN EVENT OF BETTER RAINFALL MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TILL SOME DAYS IN JULY

* FARMERS WAITING FOR THE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL INDIA SHALL THINK OF SOWING ON 2ND JUNE OR 3RD JUNE 

WILL THE UPCOMING RAINFALL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AGRICULTURE IN CENTRAL INDIA?

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

WILL THE UPCOMING RAINFALL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AGRICULTURE IN CENTRAL INDIA?

GFS models have been consistent in suggesting that there is a good chance of heavy rainfall which is required for Agriculture in Central India very soon. If the GFS is to be believed, a low pressure region is expected to form at the lower atmosphere stretching upto 500mb atleast. 

The above 72hr (00z,26th June Int) shows the classic 850mb cyclonic circulation across Eastern Bay of Bengal. Such anticlockwise circulations often indicate the low pressure area in this region as the air is rising significantly and the coriolis force causes such anticlockwise motion of the air. 

Further up at the 500mb level, a positive vortex system is appearing around the region. Such a vortex system is an indication of such lows and assists convection as well. 

If the forecast models are to be believed, this system will be tracking exactly westwards i.e entering Eastern India by 30th June 2012 and reaching over Central India around 1-2nd July 2012. 

As a result, the precipitation models are indicating some rainfall in this region which is expected to be heavy and more in terms of accumulation which may be helpful for agriculture. 

The above 144hr ( 1st July plot) showing good amounts of rainfall in Central India i.e Eastern,Central Maharashtra,Southern Madhya Pradesh,Chattisgarh and SE of Chattisgarh. The rainfall also seems to be heavy at NE Karnataka,NW Andhra Pradesh as well. 

Above- Nagpur meteogram forecast showing a very good moisture and rainfall. One can also see the drop in the air pressure, (4th coloumn from the top) indicating the likely hood of the low

The big question is that whether this rainfall will materialize and be sufficient for agriculture activity like sowing of the Kharif Crop

The sowing has been 50% in Maharashtra till now and it has been less across Vidarbha and surroundings. 

So if this low materializes, it seems to be favorable for the sowing of Kharif Crops in the mentioned areas. 

WHICH KHARIF CROP TO SOW?

TUR,MUNG or SOYABEAN???

The question is very important as choosing the right crop now will lead to a better farming this year. 

Sowing till 30th June is definitely an act of stupidity as it will not be fruitful. Some areas do receive evening thunderstorm showers which aren't much for the agriculture and are very much deceptive. A farmer generally thinks that the monsoon has arrived but it hasn't and from the next day, the weather opens up. 

As per Rajeshbhai Kapadia of Vagaries of the Weather,-

Rajeshbhai  who is one of the best weather forecasters of India having an agricultural background informed METD WEATHER. He said that Tur is not advisable now because it takes a lot of time ( around 5 month crop). Tur requires heavy rains after regular periods of 5 days or so. If the rainfall picks up in July, one can't assure the rains in Oct period! So its not worth to sow tur now! 

On the other hand. Mung and Soyabean are much better. Soyabean requires heavy rainfall during sowing and then a rainfall of around 15mm or near is required atleast once in 5 days. Its a short period crop ( around 2-3 months). Mung also needs similar lesser rainfall atleast once in 4 days or so. Its also a short time crop and after the conditions come together for the sowing, you can go for Mung and Soyabean. Going for tur is definitely not advisable. 

DEFICIENT MONSOON AFFECTS KHARIF SOWING. HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN EAST,NORTH EAST INDIA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER


The Indian Summer Monsoon which has become a headache for the farmers and weather forecasters this year has given another shock. The datas from the NCEP for Southern India are indicating deficient rainfall across the Southern India.

The data updated till 20th June 2012 for a period of past 30 days is as follows

STATION                          PERIOD TOTAL RAIN(mm)                     ANOMALY(mm)

BOMBAY                            141.4                                                            -132.4
(SANTACRUZ)

PUNE                                   26.8                                                              - 89.5


GOA                                     816                                                              +191.9

MANGALORE                   622.1                                                            -172.8

COCHIN                             285.6                                                            - 303.1


TRIVANDRUM                  94                                                                 - 212.9


CHENNAI                           3.5                                                               - 61.1


BANGALORE                   8.9                                                                - 109.9


NAGPUR                          125.3                                                             + 24

KOLKATA                       86.4                                                               - 167

TEZPUR ( ASSAM)        451.1                                                             + 160.8

GUWAHATI                   417.4                                                              + 148.4

WHAT DOES ONE INFER?

Looking at this 30-day rainfall pattern for those areas where the Monsoon has reached, its very clear that the Bay of Bengal branch is more active than the Arabian Sea branch. Though all the station's data hasn't been considered, the prominent datas are sufficient to draw the conclusion.

The strange monsoon onset pattern of this year even didn't help the Western Coast. I was expecting that the Western Coasts will be getting excess of rainfall as compared to the interiors but the Western coasts ( Except Goa) are also witnessing deficient monsoon conditions.

Even Minicoy,Laccadive ( Lakshadweep Is.) has got 243.5mm rainfall which is 37.9mm deficient.

I do blame the Negative ( Neutral IOD) Indian Ocean Dipole to be directly responsible. The 2012 IndiMO 1 presented by METD WEATHER showed a direct relation of the MJO and IOD.
The Somali Current or the monsoon winds aren't strong to bring heavy rains in these region and also in the interior parts of India like interior Southern India such as Bangalore,Cochin and Southern parts like Trivandrum etc.

Chennai has got only 3.5mm rains ( 2.4mm) at the airport. Cochin also has recorded more than 300mm less rains.

On the other hand, Central India has got a bit surplus rainfall. Its all due to the recent low pressure influence which is also reducing now.

North-East India has got very good rainfall this season till now.

WHATS NEXT??

The GFS 12z,22nd June shows the low pressure region at 850mb across the Eastern India. 

This low pressure region will be bringing heavy rains in Eastern India especially ACROSS THE NORTH EASTERN STATES LIKE ASSAM,MEGHALAYA till 27th June 2012. 


Flooding conditions can be expected again in Assam so people must be careful in this region. 


Meanwhile, the mentioned break monsoon situation is now all set to appear in India ( excluding East and North East India). Rainfall amount and cloud cover shall be going down in Central India,Southern India ( some parts of Western India) also while North India continues to wait for the Monsoon.

Here is the 850mb moisture map of GFS 12z,22nd June valid till 144hr i.e 28th June 2012. One can see how significantly less is the moisture over India ( excluding the western coast).

The 12z runs do indicate some less moisture but anything like the one being indicated seems likely and hence the break monsoon situation will happen.

Temperature rise is expected in Central India due to absence of cloud cover

KHARIF CROP SOWING CRISIS CONTINUES

COURTESY- THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE

Due to deficient rainfall, the kharif crop sowing crisis still continues in India as the necessary rainfall for the sowing isn't there. Planting of paddy crops is delayed in the states like Karnataka,Andhra Pradesh,TN,Assam etc.

Here is a wonderful news report of it-

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article3559490.ece

Only 50% area has been sown in Maharashtra.

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