WILL THE UPCOMING RAINFALL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AGRICULTURE IN CENTRAL INDIA?

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

WILL THE UPCOMING RAINFALL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AGRICULTURE IN CENTRAL INDIA?

GFS models have been consistent in suggesting that there is a good chance of heavy rainfall which is required for Agriculture in Central India very soon. If the GFS is to be believed, a low pressure region is expected to form at the lower atmosphere stretching upto 500mb atleast. 

The above 72hr (00z,26th June Int) shows the classic 850mb cyclonic circulation across Eastern Bay of Bengal. Such anticlockwise circulations often indicate the low pressure area in this region as the air is rising significantly and the coriolis force causes such anticlockwise motion of the air. 

Further up at the 500mb level, a positive vortex system is appearing around the region. Such a vortex system is an indication of such lows and assists convection as well. 

If the forecast models are to be believed, this system will be tracking exactly westwards i.e entering Eastern India by 30th June 2012 and reaching over Central India around 1-2nd July 2012. 

As a result, the precipitation models are indicating some rainfall in this region which is expected to be heavy and more in terms of accumulation which may be helpful for agriculture. 

The above 144hr ( 1st July plot) showing good amounts of rainfall in Central India i.e Eastern,Central Maharashtra,Southern Madhya Pradesh,Chattisgarh and SE of Chattisgarh. The rainfall also seems to be heavy at NE Karnataka,NW Andhra Pradesh as well. 

Above- Nagpur meteogram forecast showing a very good moisture and rainfall. One can also see the drop in the air pressure, (4th coloumn from the top) indicating the likely hood of the low

The big question is that whether this rainfall will materialize and be sufficient for agriculture activity like sowing of the Kharif Crop

The sowing has been 50% in Maharashtra till now and it has been less across Vidarbha and surroundings. 

So if this low materializes, it seems to be favorable for the sowing of Kharif Crops in the mentioned areas. 

WHICH KHARIF CROP TO SOW?

TUR,MUNG or SOYABEAN???

The question is very important as choosing the right crop now will lead to a better farming this year. 

Sowing till 30th June is definitely an act of stupidity as it will not be fruitful. Some areas do receive evening thunderstorm showers which aren't much for the agriculture and are very much deceptive. A farmer generally thinks that the monsoon has arrived but it hasn't and from the next day, the weather opens up. 

As per Rajeshbhai Kapadia of Vagaries of the Weather,-

Rajeshbhai  who is one of the best weather forecasters of India having an agricultural background informed METD WEATHER. He said that Tur is not advisable now because it takes a lot of time ( around 5 month crop). Tur requires heavy rains after regular periods of 5 days or so. If the rainfall picks up in July, one can't assure the rains in Oct period! So its not worth to sow tur now! 

On the other hand. Mung and Soyabean are much better. Soyabean requires heavy rainfall during sowing and then a rainfall of around 15mm or near is required atleast once in 5 days. Its a short period crop ( around 2-3 months). Mung also needs similar lesser rainfall atleast once in 4 days or so. Its also a short time crop and after the conditions come together for the sowing, you can go for Mung and Soyabean. Going for tur is definitely not advisable.