METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Finally a little good news seems to be coming in! First we shall see the last week rainfall of June 2012
Top most is the weekly rainfall ( 21st June to 27th June 2012) and the above one is the Monsoon season rainfall from 1st June to 27th June ( data updated till 29th June).
Considering the seasonal rainfall, it can be noted that only NE India ( Sikkim) i.e Assam and Meghalaya has got excess rainfall while the majority areas are in the DEFICIENT and SCANTY ZONE. The rainfall has been normal in the Western Maharashtra,Western Karnataka and some Eastern parts of Andhra Pradesh,Odisha,Chattisgarh,Lakshadweep and A&N Islands and some parts of the NE India.
The weak monsoon current and slow onset has resulted in such a large deficiency leading to multiple problems like bad sowing of the Kharif Crops,Water storage deficiency etc.
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Finally a little good news seems to be coming in! First we shall see the last week rainfall of June 2012
Considering the seasonal rainfall, it can be noted that only NE India ( Sikkim) i.e Assam and Meghalaya has got excess rainfall while the majority areas are in the DEFICIENT and SCANTY ZONE. The rainfall has been normal in the Western Maharashtra,Western Karnataka and some Eastern parts of Andhra Pradesh,Odisha,Chattisgarh,Lakshadweep and A&N Islands and some parts of the NE India.
The weak monsoon current and slow onset has resulted in such a large deficiency leading to multiple problems like bad sowing of the Kharif Crops,Water storage deficiency etc.
Above- The EWP map of the Madden Julian Oscillation shows the arriving wet phase ( green shade) over India. This phase is a very weak in terms of the strength but will not be so bad and hence the rainfall is expected to increase this period.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole is still towards negative neutral which will be fueling the dry phase more than the wet phase as per the IndiMo 1- so again it can be expected that the rainfall will be non normal and a bit scanty from July end period.
Favored by the MJO Wet phase and a couple of low pressures from the Bay of Bengal soon rainfall is expected in a wide area of Central India
On 1st July,
Areas like Washim,Akola and vicinity will be receiving some rainfall. The rainfall is expected to be convective or thunder rains in nature. Some more parts of Central,Eastern Maharashtra also will receive rains.
2nd July-
The rainfall is expected in the entire Maharashtra state including Nagpur,some parts of Madhya Pradesh ,Chattisgarh as well. This rainfall can be expected to be little good in terms of the sowing of the Kharif Crops in these areas ( if sowing has not been done)
3rd July-
The rainfall is again expected in the above areas and will be considerably good helping the seeds. The rainfall is expected in a region from Central MP,Chattisgarh,Maharashtra prominently
4th July-
The rainfall is expected to decrease a bit in Maharashtra but will be the same almost in Chattisgarh. Isolated rainfall can be expected in many parts of Maharashtra due to the low effect.
5th July-
Rainfall expected in Central,Northern Madhya Pradesh,Chattisgarh and areas around Chattsgarh
SYNOPSIS-
* GOOD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND/IN NAGPUR,VIDARBHA AND SURROUNDING DISTRICTS IN MAHARASHTRA,MADHYA PRADESH FROM JULY 2 ONWARDS
* THE RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH ( BETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS) FOR THE SOWING OF KHARIF CROPS IN MAHARASHTRA ESPECIALLY CENTRAL INDIA
* SUCH AN EVENT OF BETTER RAINFALL MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TILL SOME DAYS IN JULY
* FARMERS WAITING FOR THE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL INDIA SHALL THINK OF SOWING ON 2ND JUNE OR 3RD JUNE
All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.2012 to 30.06.2012
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After 30 days into monsoon, Cherrapunji in Meghlaya has run away from the pack. (SWM 2011 comparative figures till June 30). There are only 35 stations which crossed 1000 mm mark for June 2012, compared to 53 stations in 2011.
Maharashtra has 8 stations in the list in June 2012 compared to 25 stations in June 2011. Meanwhile, West Bengal which had 0 stations in 2011 has 7 stations in the list in June 2012. The surprise package is however Goa, almost all stations managed to cross 1000 mm rainfall. Karnataka which had 18 stations in 2011 has only 9 stations in 2012. Kerala has only one entrant in Vadakara, last year it had 7 stations. The dry phase of MJO is coming to an end so watch out for the toppers during next list. I would keep an eye on Chinna Kallar in Tamil Nadu. It had a quite June and yet managed to get 800 mm. July is its wettest month.
Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 1000 mm)
Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 3445
Chepan (West Bengal) - 1550
Falakata (West Bengal) - 1520
Kumargram (West Bengal) - 1470
Barobhisa (West Bengal) - 1430
Pernem (Goa) - 1387
Gokarna (Karnataka) - 1380
Agumbe (Karnataka) - 1366
Malvan (Maharashtra) - 1332
Kokrajhar (Assam) - 1320 *
Shirali (Karnataka) - 1258
Kollur (Karnataka) - 1240
Panjim (Goa) - 1177
Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 1177
Quepem (Goa) - 1174
Gossaigaon (Assam) - 1170 *
Mormugao (Goa) - 1149
Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 1140
Hasimara (West Bengal) -1140
Vadakara (Kerala) - 1130
Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 1111
Udupi (Karnataka) - 1110
Dabolim (Goa) - 1096
Karkala (Karnataka) - 1080
Mapusa (Goa) - 1079
Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) - 1065
Buxaduar (West Bengal) - 1060
Siddapura (Karnataka) - 1050
Amboli (Maharashtra) - 1047
Karwar (Karnataka) - 1047
Devgad (Maharashtra) - 1037
Honavar (Karnataka) - 1029
Dodamarg (Maharashtra) - 1026
Chiplun (Maharashtra) - 1015
Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 1009
* For Kokrajhar, Kajalgaon and Gossaigaon Some days of rainfall data is not available, yet they managed to make it to the list.
All figures compiled with limited data and IMD resources. Other places such as Mawsynaram, Hulikal, Barepta, Bongaigaon and Kajalgaon would have also have made it to the list. Next cutoff list is 1500 mm (to be published on 10th July 2012).
Thanks for that update. I have shared that on my facebook weather page
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