Extreme Weather Forecaster,
Concerning- Major severe weather outbreak in USA
A classic amplified upper level trough with over 100kt+ jets will rotate over central axis near Colorado causing much upper level disturbance. At the surface level, which looks like the best setup of the year defies massive surface jet flow over Kansas ranging from 40-60kt over and around Kansas. The atmosphere will also be very destabilised if the NAM models for 00 UTC+51z 4th april will verify. These low surface flows will transport a lot of moisture and will support high level convection in the presence of 2000J/kg CAPE and high low level shears over 200 m2 s2 and 500 m2 s2 in NRN KS. The environment seems to be good with the dewpoints over 65F. This means triggering of storms will be easy with the cold aloft. THE SURFACE EHI are above 3 and had been consistent for NW OK,KS,SRN IA. The compact setup seems to affect NWEST OK and isolatively IA with new LLJ developing there and in SRN TX also. The system is very energetic to cause a very high level convection with pretty strong shears to rotate the storms and cause VERY MASSIVE TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. The HODOGRAPHS are also showing a very good wind field to play with.
It looks like May 4, 2007 where 111 tornadoes were reported and caused massive destruction. Many tornadoes are possible if the model RUNS continue with the WARM FRONT SETUP. Chasing in Kansas on Monday will be really good.
Conditions remain favourable with SPC getting 15% RISK
FOR SRN TX and NW OK
Poor conditions in SRN TX and relatively good conditions in NW OK with tornado possibility